*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902021 07/30/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       86%                                 93%

LAT  (deg N)     12.7  13.0  13.4  13.6  14.6  15.8  16.6  17.5  17.6  17.5  17.6  17.7  17.9
LON  (deg W)    112.7 113.8 115.2 116.4 117.5 120.3 123.3 126.2 129.1 131.1 133.3 135.7 138.2
DTL  (km)        1109  1171  1189  1234  1213  1302  1462  1621  1836  2008  2191  2021  1756
TRACK SOURCE     AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05  AP05

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   86% is  2.0 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   93% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -3.1   7.9%      -2.0   -0.9   8.0%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.4  21.3%       1.5    2.5  25.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.3  19.1%      14.9   11.2  30.8%
RH                79.1   85.5   9.4%      74.8   78.2   7.5%
GOES              42.9   45.5   9.7%      42.8   45.5   7.8%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  18.2%       0.9    2.0  12.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018