*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP082021 07/31/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       85%                                 97%

LAT  (deg N)     12.4  12.8  12.9  13.2  13.6  14.0  14.7  15.4  16.4  17.4  18.4  18.6  19.9
LON  (deg W)    113.9 115.1 116.8 117.9 118.8 120.8 122.2 123.6 124.4 126.0 128.1 130.3 132.1
DTL  (km)        1230  1245  1323  1363  1389  1494  1526  1575  1566  1615  1698  1867  1947
TRACK SOURCE     AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   85% is  2.0 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   97% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -3.2   8.1%      -2.0   -3.0  13.3%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.7  16.7%       1.5    2.3  23.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    9.5  17.3%      14.9    9.0  30.8%
RH                79.1   85.6   9.2%      74.8   83.2   6.0%
GOES              42.9   47.5  10.1%      42.8   47.5   7.8%
DVORAK             0.9    2.5  23.5%       0.9    2.5  15.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018