*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP092021 08/02/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       33%                                 45%

LAT  (deg N)     12.0  12.2  12.8  13.0  13.0  13.5  14.5  15.7  16.6  17.8  19.5  20.1  20.3
LON  (deg W)    130.4 131.1 131.2 132.0 132.5 132.2 131.7 131.5 131.8 131.9 131.8 134.5 136.5
DTL  (km)        2380  2414  2372  2416  2454  2392  2275  2169  2129  2057  1942  2123  1914
TRACK SOURCE     AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   33% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   45% is  0.8 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.1   1.9%      -2.0    1.2   1.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.5   9.1%       1.5    1.5  12.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   11.1   9.6%      14.9    9.9  21.5%
RH                79.1   76.7   5.3%      74.8   74.8   4.7%
GOES              42.9   18.4   2.2%      42.8   18.4   2.1%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   4.5%       0.9    1.0   3.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018