*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP092021 08/03/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       70%                                 75%

LAT  (deg N)     13.4  13.7  14.1  14.4  14.8  15.5  16.2  16.8  17.4  17.8  18.0  18.3  18.2
LON  (deg W)    133.3 133.7 134.0 134.3 134.7 135.6 136.8 138.3 139.8 141.6 143.2 144.8 146.5
DTL  (km)        2389  2337  2292  2251  2197  2082  1938  1767  1598  1402  1231  1059   884
TRACK SOURCE     AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   70% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   75% is  1.3 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.2   2.6%      -2.0    0.5   3.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.3  20.1%       1.5    2.1  20.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    6.6  18.6%      14.9   10.4  29.8%
RH                79.1   77.6   8.8%      74.8   72.4   6.0%
GOES              42.9   13.5   2.5%      42.8   13.5   2.1%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  17.3%       0.9    2.0  12.3%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018