*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP092021 08/03/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       59%                                 59%

LAT  (deg N)     13.7  14.3  15.0  15.5  16.0  16.9  17.2  18.0  18.3  18.4  18.3  18.0  17.7
LON  (deg W)    133.9 134.0 134.1 134.5 134.7 136.2 138.4 140.5 143.0 145.6 148.5 151.4 154.1
DTL  (km)        2317  2285  2252  2196  2162  1984  1748  1513  1247   974   675   394   206
TRACK SOURCE     AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   59% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   59% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.4   2.1%      -2.0    0.4   3.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.1  17.0%       1.5    1.7  16.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    8.9  15.5%      14.9   17.9  22.4%
RH                79.1   78.6   8.3%      74.8   73.6   5.5%
GOES              42.9    4.0   0.4%      42.8    4.0   0.5%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  15.8%       0.9    2.0  10.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018