From: Mike Landin (ES 324, 518-442-4572) To: Thunderstorm Forecast Contest Participants Re: Summer 2008 Thunderstorm Forecasting Contest THUNDER Verification Rule Change and "Gift 10" Explanation ** THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING CONTEST BEGINS MONDAY, JUNE 2nd ** =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= ** THUNDER VERIFICATION RULE ** A clarification as to "THUNDER" on an ASOS METAR report. To verify THUNDER (i.e., "10"), it must appear as present weather (i.e., "TS", "TSRA", "VCTS", etc.) -or- be indicated that THUNDER began and ended during the previous hour in the RMK section of the METAR report (e.g., "TSB15E37"). An incorrect observer remark such as "TS S MOVG E" or "TS DSNT N" will no longer be an indication of THUNDER being heard at the station. (In those cases, the proper remark should be something like "CB S MOVG E" or "TCU DSNT N".) =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= ** "Gift 10" Explanation ** If THUNDER is reported as present weather (e.g., "TS", "TSRA", "VCTS") on the 18Z observation, then THUNDER is verified ("10") for both periods simultaneously on either side. If THUNDER is reported on a "special" METAR report *within* 15 minutes prior to that station's usual 18Z observation time, then *all* participating forecasters that day are given a "Gift 10" for that city. Just because THUNDER is reported on the 17Z METAR does *not* qualify for a "Gift 10". If THUNDER is reported on the 18Z METAR, but there is no "special" METAR *within* 15 minutes of the 18Z METAR, there is no "Gift 10". This rule is to "protect" those who enter their forecasts early and do not have access to a METAR report of THUNDER, prior to the contest entry deadline. This is a result of the METAR observer rule that THUNDER is officially ended 15 minutes after the last THUNDER is heard. Examples: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ "Gift 10" ========= KALB 051745Z 19014G26KT 8SM TS FEW060 29/17 A2983 RMK AO2 TSB43= KALB 051751Z 17009G17KT 8SM TS FEW060 24/16 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB43 SLP102 OCNL LTGCG VC SE T02390161 10300 20217 55010= ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not a "Gift 10" =============== KALB 051651Z 19014G26KT 8SM TS FEW060 29/17 A2983 RMK AO2 TSB33 OCNL LTGCG VC S T02890172= KALB 051751Z 17009G17KT 8SM TS FEW060 24/16 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP102 OCNL LTGCG VC SE T02390161 10300 20217 55010= =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= The forecast entry deadline of 1745Z is a "hard" deadline, since every minute can make a signficant difference. If you enter a forecast late, then your numbers will *not* be entered into the contest for that day. (And, in that case, those numbers will roll over into the next day, so make sure to either enter new numbers the next day or notify the "Contest Director" to re-set your forecaster file.) Good luck to everyone! ML P.S. Ross Lazear (ralazear@atmos.albany.edu) will be taking over the duties as Contest Director for Summer 2008 and beyond.