FXUS61 KALY 300524 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region overnight with rain showers ending and westerly winds increasing. Clouds will break for some sun tomorrow with continued gusty winds along with cooler and much drier conditions. Chances for showers and some storms return later this week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 120 AM EDT, one last area of showers is pushing across parts of the Hudson Valley into southern Vermont but is fizzling out quickly. Otherwise, shower activity has ended. The cold front has begun to cross the region and will continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours bringing a cooler and drier air mass. Westerly winds will increase with some gusts exceeding 30 mph. Some partial clearing is also expected toward daybreak. Temperatures will fall back into the 40s to mid-50s by early Wednesday morning except mid to upper 30s across the Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - The growing season begins May 1 and there is a 45-50% chance for temperatures to be at or under 35 degrees in the Upper Hudson Valley Wednesday night. If confidence in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s increases, a frost advisory may be needed. Discussion: Cooler, much drier, and breezy on Wednesday as high pressure and subsidence quickly builds in behind the departing cold front. The breeziest winds will likely occur in the morning when the pressure gradient overhead will be tightest with gusts up to 25-30mph (mainly Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and western New England) with winds weakening through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect seasonably cooler temperatures as west- northwest winds advect a much drier Canadian air mass into the Northeast with daytime highs likely only in the mid to upper 60s (cooler 50s in the hill towns and higher terrain). Given deep boundary layer mixing on forecast soundings and a substantial dry layer above the inversion, we also leaned on the lower end of dew points as PWATs drop under 0.25". See our fire weather discussion for more details on fire weather potential. Mainly clear skies Wednesday night will favor even cooler temperatures thanks to radiational cooling with overnight lows likely in the low to mid 30s and even upper 20s in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks. Upper level clouds will be increasing overnight so that could limit frost potential but given the growing season does begin May 1 in the Hudson Valley, we will have to monitor the probabilities for temperatures to drop under 34-35 degrees. Currently, there is a 45-50% chance for lows to fall to 35 degrees or lower in the Upper Hudson Valley. Upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast on Thursday with increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a warm front advecting in a warmer air mass. Daytime highs rise closer to 70 for much of the region under increasing mid and upper level clouds. POPs have trended lower for Thursday as the ridging appears stronger than previous models sun and remains in control of our area. Strengthening isentropic lift Thursday night as the warm front front lifts northward through the area will likely result in a few areas of showers and POPs thus continue trend upwards into the chance range overnight. Given increasing dew points as we enter into the warm sector plus clouds/shower coverage, expect mild temperatures Thurs night with overnight lows only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday turns warmer and more humid as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an approaching shortwave upper level trough lifting north/eastward. Given higher dew points and increasing instability, we maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms for the afternoon hours when the trough axis is set to push through. Southwest flow persists aloft as yet another upper level shortwave tracks within the broad troughing positioned over the Great Lakes. An incoming cold front stalls over the Northeast Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough which should keep temperatures mild into Saturday. As the shortwave rides the stalled boundary Saturday morning into the afternoon, an organized area of rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms spreads across eastern NY and western New England. Once the organized area of rain arrives, the rest of the day will likely be a washout given strong forcing ahead of the shortwave and PWAT moisture plume greater than 1 - 1.50" lingering ahead of the boundary into New England. Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday through Tuesday as an omega blocking pattern develops over the Central and Eastern CONUS. There remains discrepancies on exactly where upper level shortwaves and/or potential cut-off lows develop which will impact where cloudier/cooler temperatures and wetter conditions develop. On the flip side, there are also discrepancies on where upper level ridging builds which would support dry and warmer conditions. For now, continue to show seasonable temperatures for early May during this period with slight chance and chance POPs (20 - 30%). && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...A strong cold front will move across the area late this evening into the early overnight hours. A period of showers is expected ahead of the cold front, which will move through KGFL through 02z, KALB 01z-03z, and KPOU/KPSF 02z-04z. Chances for thunder look lower now with a more stable air mass in place. Will monitor trends with TSRA to the west over central/southern NY, but these are expected to weaken as they move into eastern NY. Conditions will be mainly VFR this evening, although brief periods of MVFR vsby may occur with any moderate showers. Skies will gradually clear behind the cold front overnight with prevailing VFR, although a brief period of MVFR cigs may occur at KPSF prior to 12z. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at ALB/POU/PSF through this evening, as a southwest low-level jet around 40-50 kt moves overhead. The LLWS will dissipate after dark. Surface winds will be south-southwest around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt, becoming northwest overnight into Wednesday with similar speeds/gusts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and drier air returns tomorrow behind our cold front. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20-30mph through the morning but will decrease through the afternoon. As the winds weaken, relative humidity values drop and fall as low as 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and given the potential for some light showers tonight, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread. The mid-Hudson Valley seemed to have the higher potential for enhanced fire spread but given that the Catskills should help block the strongest winds, we held off on any SPS for now. The next chance for rainfall will be Thursday night into Friday. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/Speciale FXUS61 KALY 300538 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 138 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region overnight with rain showers ending and westerly winds increasing. Clouds will break for some sun tomorrow with continued gusty winds along with cooler and much drier conditions. Chances for showers and some storms return later this week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 120 AM EDT, one last area of showers is pushing across parts of the Hudson Valley into southern Vermont but is fizzling out quickly. Otherwise, shower activity has ended. The cold front has begun to cross the region and will continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours bringing a cooler and drier air mass. Westerly winds will increase with some gusts exceeding 30 mph. Some partial clearing is also expected toward daybreak. Temperatures will fall back into the 40s to mid-50s by early Wednesday morning except mid to upper 30s across the Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - The growing season begins May 1 and there is a 45-50% chance for temperatures to be at or under 35 degrees in the Upper Hudson Valley Wednesday night. If confidence in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s increases, a frost advisory may be needed. Discussion: Cooler, much drier, and breezy on Wednesday as high pressure and subsidence quickly builds in behind the departing cold front. The breeziest winds will likely occur in the morning when the pressure gradient overhead will be tightest with gusts up to 25-30mph (mainly Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and western New England) with winds weakening through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect seasonably cooler temperatures as west- northwest winds advect a much drier Canadian air mass into the Northeast with daytime highs likely only in the mid to upper 60s (cooler 50s in the hill towns and higher terrain). Given deep boundary layer mixing on forecast soundings and a substantial dry layer above the inversion, we also leaned on the lower end of dew points as PWATs drop under 0.25". See our fire weather discussion for more details on fire weather potential. Mainly clear skies Wednesday night will favor even cooler temperatures thanks to radiational cooling with overnight lows likely in the low to mid 30s and even upper 20s in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks. Upper level clouds will be increasing overnight so that could limit frost potential but given the growing season does begin May 1 in the Hudson Valley, we will have to monitor the probabilities for temperatures to drop under 34-35 degrees. Currently, there is a 45-50% chance for lows to fall to 35 degrees or lower in the Upper Hudson Valley. Upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast on Thursday with increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a warm front advecting in a warmer air mass. Daytime highs rise closer to 70 for much of the region under increasing mid and upper level clouds. POPs have trended lower for Thursday as the ridging appears stronger than previous models sun and remains in control of our area. Strengthening isentropic lift Thursday night as the warm front front lifts northward through the area will likely result in a few areas of showers and POPs thus continue trend upwards into the chance range overnight. Given increasing dew points as we enter into the warm sector plus clouds/shower coverage, expect mild temperatures Thurs night with overnight lows only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday turns warmer and more humid as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an approaching shortwave upper level trough lifting north/eastward. Given higher dew points and increasing instability, we maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms for the afternoon hours when the trough axis is set to push through. Southwest flow persists aloft as yet another upper level shortwave tracks within the broad troughing positioned over the Great Lakes. An incoming cold front stalls over the Northeast Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough which should keep temperatures mild into Saturday. As the shortwave rides the stalled boundary Saturday morning into the afternoon, an organized area of rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms spreads across eastern NY and western New England. Once the organized area of rain arrives, the rest of the day will likely be a washout given strong forcing ahead of the shortwave and PWAT moisture plume greater than 1 - 1.50" lingering ahead of the boundary into New England. Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday through Tuesday as an omega blocking pattern develops over the Central and Eastern CONUS. There remains discrepancies on exactly where upper level shortwaves and/or potential cut-off lows develop which will impact where cloudier/cooler temperatures and wetter conditions develop. On the flip side, there are also discrepancies on where upper level ridging builds which would support dry and warmer conditions. For now, continue to show seasonable temperatures for early May during this period with slight chance and chance POPs (20 - 30%). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Cold front will continue dropping southeast across the TAF sites over the next few hours. A few showers/sprinkles may still occur at KALB/KPSF during this time, otherwise mainly just a wind shift as the front passes. A period of MVFR Cigs will be possible at KGFL, KALB and KPSF around 12Z/Wed as a secondary front passes, and there could be borderline IFR Cigs at KPSF. MVFR Cigs should become VFR by 13Z-15Z/Wed at KALB/KGFL, however could linger as late as 16Z-18Z/Wed at KPSF. VFR conditions should then prevail at all TAF sites after 18Z/Wed. South to southwest winds 8-12 KT will shift into the west/northwest as the front passes with speeds of 10-15 KT and gusts up to 25-28 KT through midday, then gradually decreasing and becoming north to northwest this afternoon. Winds will quickly diminish after sunset to less than 5 KT. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and drier air returns tomorrow behind our cold front. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20-30mph through the morning but will decrease through the afternoon. As the winds weaken, relative humidity values drop and fall as low as 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and given the potential for some light showers tonight, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread. The mid-Hudson Valley seemed to have the higher potential for enhanced fire spread but given that the Catskills should help block the strongest winds, we held off on any SPS for now. The next chance for rainfall will be Thursday night into Friday. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/Speciale FXUS61 KALY 300754 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 354 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy, drier and cooler weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Milder weather returns later this week as another system brings the next chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will likely continue into part of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message: - The growing season begins Thursday, May 1 across the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s tonight. A frost advisory may be needed for this area. Discussion: A cooler and drier air mass will continue to filter into the region through today. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes bringing mostly clear weather through tonight. A tight pressure gradient associated with the departing system will result in breezy conditions through this afternoon with occasional gusts between 25 and 35 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the 50s and 60s for most areas. High pressure will be overhead tonight resulting in a mostly clear and dry night with just some passing cirrus clouds at times. With the dry air mass in place, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected to occur which could result in temperatures falling into the 30s in many areas with some upper 20s in the higher elevations, especially Adirondacks. The growing season starts on May 1 for the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s. A frost advisory may be needed for these areas if confidence in these temperatures increases. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging will crest over the region on Thursday as high pressure slides to the east to off the New England coast. Dry weather looks to continue through the day as surface flow shifts to a southerly direction. This will lead to a milder afternoon with highs reaching the 60s to lower 70s. An upper level shortwave will approach the region from the Ohio Valley Thursday night as a low pressure system tracks northeastward over the Great Lakes lifting a warm front across the region. Increasing forcing for ascent could result in some passing showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Thursday night will be a milder night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Warmer and more humid weather returns on Friday as we transition into the warm sector of this low pressure system. The passage of the upper shortwave could provide enough forcing for some additional scattered showers and some thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. The cold front approaches from the west Friday night but may slow its eastward progression. Regardless, a few lingering showers are also possible Friday night. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 70s to lower 80s except mid to upper 60s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Temperatures fall back to the 40s and 50s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: - Showers likely Saturday, with shower chances lingering into Sunday-Tuesday especially south of I-90. Discussion: Wave of low pressure tracks northeast along frontal system south of the region Saturday through early Sunday, bringing showers or a period of steady rain to much of the region (60-80% chance of rain). Lower confidence on rain chances for Sunday into early next week, as there is significant uncertainty regarding development of upper level closed/cut-off low over Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region, and resulting placement of associated frontal boundary and additional waves of low pressure. Continuing chances (20-40%) for showers near and south of I-90 Sunday into Tuesday, with generally less than 20% chances to the north. These rain chances could increase if aforementioned closed low and associated frontal system remain closer to the region. Temperatures should be a bit below average, with highs mainly in the 50s/60s through Monday and overnight lows in the 30s/40s. Some slight warming possible Tuesday should clouds/showers shift farther south and west, with some lower 70s possible in valley areas possible, especially if some breaks in the clouds develop. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Cold front will continue dropping southeast across the TAF sites over the next few hours. A few showers/sprinkles may still occur at KALB/KPSF during this time, otherwise mainly just a wind shift as the front passes. A period of MVFR Cigs will be possible at KGFL, KALB and KPSF around 12Z/Wed as a secondary front passes, and there could be borderline IFR Cigs at KPSF. MVFR Cigs should become VFR by 13Z-15Z/Wed at KALB/KGFL, however could linger as late as 16Z-18Z/Wed at KPSF. VFR conditions should then prevail at all TAF sites after 18Z/Wed. South to southwest winds 8-12 KT will shift into the west/northwest as the front passes with speeds of 10-15 KT and gusts up to 25-28 KT through midday, then gradually decreasing and becoming north to northwest this afternoon. Winds will quickly diminish after sunset to less than 5 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and drier air returns today behind a cold front. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph into the early afternoon hours before diminishing late in the day. Relative humidity values lower to 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and following a soaking rainfall in some areas on Tuesday, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread today. Following coordination with WFO BOX, a special weather statement has been issued for Berkshire and Litchfield counties, where little rainfall occurred. Dry conditions will continue on Thursday, but winds will generally be light on the order of 5 to 15 mph. Rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms are then expected Thursday night into the upcoming weekend. This should limit additional fire weather concerns. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun FXUS61 KALY 301049 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 649 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy, drier and cooler weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Milder weather returns later this week as another system brings the next chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will likely continue into part of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message: - The growing season begins Thursday, May 1 across the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s tonight. A frost advisory may be needed for this area. Discussion: .UPDATE...As of 645 AM EDT, the cold front has just crossed the entire area as cooler and drier air continues to filter into the area. Temperatures have fallen into the 40s and 50s for much of the area except lower 60s across the mid-Hudson valley and upper 30s across the Adirondacks. Dewpoints have fallen into the 30s and 40s. Any lingering morning clouds this morning will break for more afternoon sun with just some passing high clouds. Previous Discussion: A cooler and drier air mass will continue to filter into the region through today. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes bringing mostly clear weather through tonight. A tight pressure gradient associated with the departing system will result in breezy conditions through this afternoon with occasional gusts between 25 and 35 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the 50s and 60s for most areas. High pressure will be overhead tonight resulting in a mostly clear and dry night with just some passing cirrus clouds at times. With the dry air mass in place, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected to occur which could result in temperatures falling into the 30s in many areas with some upper 20s in the higher elevations, especially Adirondacks. The growing season starts on May 1 for the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s. A frost advisory may be needed for these areas if confidence in these temperatures increases. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging will crest over the region on Thursday as high pressure slides to the east to off the New England coast. Dry weather looks to continue through the day as surface flow shifts to a southerly direction. This will lead to a milder afternoon with highs reaching the 60s to lower 70s. An upper level shortwave will approach the region from the Ohio Valley Thursday night as a low pressure system tracks northeastward over the Great Lakes lifting a warm front across the region. Increasing forcing for ascent could result in some passing showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Thursday night will be a milder night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Warmer and more humid weather returns on Friday as we transition into the warm sector of this low pressure system. The passage of the upper shortwave could provide enough forcing for some additional scattered showers and some thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. The cold front approaches from the west Friday night but may slow its eastward progression. Regardless, a few lingering showers are also possible Friday night. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 70s to lower 80s except mid to upper 60s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Temperatures fall back to the 40s and 50s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: - Showers likely Saturday, with shower chances lingering into Sunday-Tuesday especially south of I-90. Discussion: Wave of low pressure tracks northeast along frontal system south of the region Saturday through early Sunday, bringing showers or a period of steady rain to much of the region (60-80% chance of rain). Lower confidence on rain chances for Sunday into early next week, as there is significant uncertainty regarding development of upper level closed/cut-off low over Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region, and resulting placement of associated frontal boundary and additional waves of low pressure. Continuing chances (20-40%) for showers near and south of I-90 Sunday into Tuesday, with generally less than 20% chances to the north. These rain chances could increase if aforementioned closed low and associated frontal system remain closer to the region. Temperatures should be a bit below average, with highs mainly in the 50s/60s through Monday and overnight lows in the 30s/40s. Some slight warming possible Tuesday should clouds/showers shift farther south and west, with some lower 70s possible in valley areas possible, especially if some breaks in the clouds develop. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Thursday...Cold front will continue dropping southeast of the TAF sites early this morning. A period of MVFR Cigs will be possible at KGFL, KALB and KPSF through 13Z/Wed as a secondary front passes, and there could be borderline IFR Cigs at KPSF. MVFR Cigs should become VFR by 13Z-15Z/Wed at KALB/KGFL, however could linger as late as 15Z-16Z/Wed at KPSF. VFR conditions should then prevail at all TAF sites after 18Z/Wed through 12Z/Thu. West/northwest winds 10-15 KT with gusts up to 25-28 KT will veer slightly into the northwest to north by late morning. Winds will gradually decrease to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20-25 KT this afternoon, then will quickly diminish after sunset to less than 5 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and drier air returns today behind a cold front. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph into the early afternoon hours before diminishing late in the day. Relative humidity values lower to 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and following a soaking rainfall in some areas on Tuesday, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread today. Following coordination with WFO BOX, a special weather statement has been issued for Berkshire and Litchfield counties, where little rainfall occurred. Dry conditions will continue on Thursday, but winds will generally be light on the order of 5 to 15 mph. Rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms are then expected Thursday night into the upcoming weekend. This should limit additional fire weather concerns. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun