FXUS61 KALY 270500 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather will arrive tonight in the wake of a cold front, however fog will occur. High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine after the fog burns off and near seasonable temperatures Friday. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Fog continues to form around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will continue through daybreak. Outside of the fog, the sky will be mainly clear with light to calm winds. Lows in the 40s to near 50 by daybreak. High pressure from the Ohio Valley will slide across the middle Atlantic region on Friday. This will provide a delightful weather pattern with ample early autumn sunshine after the fog lifts and burns off. Temperatures will be close to seasonable normals with near 70F for valley locations and mainly 60s elsewhere as dewpoints drop back into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night...The surface high is expected to track well off the mid-Atlantic coastline as yet another cold front approaches. Weather should remain tranquil Friday night, some increase in higher level clouds are anticipated, as overnight lows generally fall back to between 45-55F. Some patchy fog once again could be a concern, however, southerly winds may remain elevated to keep fog from becoming widespread. Saturday...NCEP Model Suite and international guidance are in rather good agreement with the timing of the next frontal boundary. The thermal profiles ahead of this approaching cold front moderate with near +16/+18C H850 air advecting into the region. Combine that with southwest flow regime and any breaks of sunshine where around 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s elsewhere. Surface dewpoints will also be on the increase with at or above 60F expected. The threat for convection increases to the northwest of Albany early then spreads southeast through the afternoon hours. At this time, best instability gradient appears to remain just west and south of the Capital Region as current SWODY3 from SPC remains with a 'marginal risk'. Saturday night...The cold front is expected to clear our southern portions of the region during the evening hours. Rather impressive pressure gradient across the region as large 1030mb surface high builds in from the upper Great Lakes overnight. This will decrease both clouds and showers from north to south along with clearing skies. Overnight lows will range from mid 40s across the Dacks to around 60F for the mid-Hudson Valley and southern portions of Litchfield County, CT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A rather low confidence long term forecast as the combination of of a building subtropical ridge across the southeast Conus and a Canadian large high across the country. The main issue will be the short wave trough axis attempting to slide southeast from Hudson Bay. Regardless of how this all plays out, seems we will be experiencing a warm frontal passage sometime Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS remains in the middle of the guidance with the GGEM-ECMWF the most further north with the warm front. We will continue with the chance PoPs beginning later Monday into Monday night. Unfortunately, this continues through most of the long term as the cold front will either slide slowly southward or remain just to the north until Thursday timeframe. This too will also have implications of our forecast temperatures. There is a potential for quite warm conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday, beginning of October, where some lower-mid 80s for valley locations are possible (could be near 90F for the mid-Hudson Valley). However, several ensemble members are quite cloudy with that threat of showers which would allow for cooler conditions with 60s. So, per coordination, we will follow the ensemble approach for temperatures which is still above normal but not as high as some of the ECMWF MOS would suggest. As for severe weather potential, it's a none-zero probability as upstream convection and/or MCS could evolve and ride along the baroclinic zone and impact portions of the region through the mid-week period. Dewpoints back into the 60s, warmer than normal temperatures and a strong frontal passage, could potentially be an active period of weather for the mid-week period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The storms associated with the short wave trough swinging through will continue to weaken and will dissipate this evening. The issue then for the overnight is fog. The area received a light rainfall during the day leaving the ground wet and skies have become mainly clear outside the few storms and winds have become very light to calm in many area so conditons are favorable the development of fog. Fog has already developed at KPOU, KPSF, KAQW and KDDH. The fog will lift and burn off after sunrise by 12-13Z, then VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light south to southwest winds developing by early afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and some thunderstorms will come to and end as high pressure builds in through Friday. This will result in elevated relative humidity values over 90 percent tonight, then drop back to between 30-50 percent on Friday under plenty of sunshine. Winds will become light and variable tonight, with a southerly breeze developing through the daylight hours Friday at speeds up to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts today have ranged from around one tenth to one third of an inch across the region per METARs and NY Mesonet observations. These values have had little impact on rivers and streams due to quite dry antecedent conditions. Drier weather returns for Friday before the next frontal system approaches for the start of the weekend with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...BGM HYDROLOGY...BGM FXUS61 KALY 270533 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 133 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather will arrive tonight in the wake of a cold front, however fog will occur. High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine after the fog burns off and near seasonable temperatures Friday. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Fog continues to form around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will continue through daybreak. Outside of the fog, the sky will be mainly clear with light to calm winds. Lows in the 40s to near 50 by daybreak. High pressure from the Ohio Valley will slide across the middle Atlantic region on Friday. This will provide a delightful weather pattern with ample early autumn sunshine after the fog lifts and burns off. Temperatures will be close to seasonable normals with near 70F for valley locations and mainly 60s elsewhere as dewpoints drop back into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night...The surface high is expected to track well off the mid-Atlantic coastline as yet another cold front approaches. Weather should remain tranquil Friday night, some increase in higher level clouds are anticipated, as overnight lows generally fall back to between 45-55F. Some patchy fog once again could be a concern, however, southerly winds may remain elevated to keep fog from becoming widespread. Saturday...NCEP Model Suite and international guidance are in rather good agreement with the timing of the next frontal boundary. The thermal profiles ahead of this approaching cold front moderate with near +16/+18C H850 air advecting into the region. Combine that with southwest flow regime and any breaks of sunshine where around 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s elsewhere. Surface dewpoints will also be on the increase with at or above 60F expected. The threat for convection increases to the northwest of Albany early then spreads southeast through the afternoon hours. At this time, best instability gradient appears to remain just west and south of the Capital Region as current SWODY3 from SPC remains with a 'marginal risk'. Saturday night...The cold front is expected to clear our southern portions of the region during the evening hours. Rather impressive pressure gradient across the region as large 1030mb surface high builds in from the upper Great Lakes overnight. This will decrease both clouds and showers from north to south along with clearing skies. Overnight lows will range from mid 40s across the Dacks to around 60F for the mid-Hudson Valley and southern portions of Litchfield County, CT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A rather low confidence long term forecast as the combination of of a building subtropical ridge across the southeast Conus and a Canadian large high across the country. The main issue will be the short wave trough axis attempting to slide southeast from Hudson Bay. Regardless of how this all plays out, seems we will be experiencing a warm frontal passage sometime Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS remains in the middle of the guidance with the GGEM-ECMWF the most further north with the warm front. We will continue with the chance PoPs beginning later Monday into Monday night. Unfortunately, this continues through most of the long term as the cold front will either slide slowly southward or remain just to the north until Thursday timeframe. This too will also have implications of our forecast temperatures. There is a potential for quite warm conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday, beginning of October, where some lower-mid 80s for valley locations are possible (could be near 90F for the mid-Hudson Valley). However, several ensemble members are quite cloudy with that threat of showers which would allow for cooler conditions with 60s. So, per coordination, we will follow the ensemble approach for temperatures which is still above normal but not as high as some of the ECMWF MOS would suggest. As for severe weather potential, it's a none-zero probability as upstream convection and/or MCS could evolve and ride along the baroclinic zone and impact portions of the region through the mid-week period. Dewpoints back into the 60s, warmer than normal temperatures and a strong frontal passage, could potentially be an active period of weather for the mid-week period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Skies are mainly clear across the area, however patchy dense fog has developed and will affect the majority of the TAF sites through the rest of the overnight into the early morning hours. KPOU already experiencing VLIFR conditions with fog and will likely remain VLIFR/LIFR until the fog dissipates. Fog is beginning to develop at KPSF/KGFL, with IFR/LIFR becoming likely in the next few hours after 06Z. Fog is not expected at KALB due to a light westerly wind, but will be nearby along the Mohawk River, so have decided to mention BCFG with VFR conditions prevailing at the terminal. Fog should dissipate by around 13Z, with clear skies through the rest of the period. Winds will initially be light and variable into the morning, then becoming south-southwest around 5-6 kt by afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and some thunderstorms will come to and end as high pressure builds in through Friday. This will result in elevated relative humidity values over 90 percent tonight, then drop back to between 30-50 percent on Friday under plenty of sunshine. Winds will become light and variable tonight, with a southerly breeze developing through the daylight hours Friday at speeds up to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts today have ranged from around one tenth to one third of an inch across the region per METARs and NY Mesonet observations. These values have had little impact on rivers and streams due to quite dry antecedent conditions. Drier weather returns for Friday before the next frontal system approaches for the start of the weekend with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...BGM HYDROLOGY...BGM FXUS61 KALY 270815 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 415 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog continues to form around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will continue through daybreak. The fog will burn off within a couple of hours after sunrise and a mostly sunny sky will prevail through this afternoon. Winds will be light and temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s but mid to upper 60s in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection increases through tonight as boundary layer flow becomes southwest and increases in speed. Some of the increasing boundary layer winds will mix down and channel into the Hudson Valley and other south and southwest facing valleys producing steady light south surface winds, preventing temperatures from falling as much as they could. Boundary layer temperatures increase quite considerably and boundary layer winds shift to more westerly by midday, contributing to some downsloping. Based on a consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles the timing of the best low level forcing, clouds, showers and thunderstorms should be in the afternoon and evening. So, with the prospect of quite a bit of sun on Saturday, with perhaps intervals of high clouds, temperatures should reach near 80 to lower 80s but lower to mid 70s in higher terrain. West to southwest flow through the boundary layer will limit low level forcing to some degree but thermal forcing along the leading edge of the cold advection will provide some low level forcing. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should mainly be scattered but some better coverage is possible in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, that will decrease in coverage as it moves east and south. Some instability and shear could support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and SPC has some of eastern NY in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The greatest instability of greater than 1000 j/kg could be in central NY with CAPEs in eastern NY peaking below 1000 j/kg. It would seem that any chance for severe thunderstorms would be if an enhanced downdraft had some acceleration due to mixing of winds from the boundary layer to the surface. However, there is a bit of a consensus that the boundary layer westerly flow will slowly weaken through the day. So, there are mixed signals as to the possible coverage and intensity of convection Saturday. The cold front tracks through Saturday evening and any showers and thunderstorms should exit by midnight. Cooler and drier weather Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s but lower to mid 60s higher terrain. Temperatures drop quickly Sunday night into Monday morning but no areas should drop to frost levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period starts out on Monday with high pressure initially over the region, then shifting eastward towards the New England coast. So after a cool start, temperatures should warm nicely due to a developing southerly flow and sunshine through much of the day. Monday night a warm front will be lifting northward across the region. This front could bring some showers as it passes through, with the best chance across northern areas. Our area is expected to be in a warm sector by Tuesday, however a few showers will still be possible, as there could be a disturbance or two passing through in the zonal flow aloft. The core of the upper level ridge should remain well south and west of our region, over the Ohio/Tenn valley regions. With increasing humidity levels even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Temperatures will likely warm to around 10 degrees above normal for October 1st. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will approach and then gradually move southward across the region, as low pressure tracks from southern Quebec across northern Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a signal for a fairly strong anticyclone to track eastward from south-central Canada that will force the cold front southward. At this time it appears the front will move across the bulk of our area on Wednesday. At least scattered showers and again perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will be very mild for this time of year ahead of the front. The ECMWF is now showing a faster frontal passage, so a blended approach was utilized for max temperatures. Models diverge more significantly Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is indicating a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front just to our south, with a soaking rainfall across much of our region. However, the ECMWF and CMC are depicting a drier solution, with the surface high in Canada positioned closer and the front and any associated waves of low pressure well south of our region. Again will take a blended approach for now with chance pops, but higher confidence in temperatures cooling back to normal levels for early October. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Skies are mainly clear across the area, however patchy dense fog has developed and will affect the majority of the TAF sites through the rest of the overnight into the early morning hours. KPOU already experiencing VLIFR conditions with fog and will likely remain VLIFR/LIFR until the fog dissipates. Fog is beginning to develop at KPSF/KGFL, with IFR/LIFR becoming likely in the next few hours after 06Z. Fog is not expected at KALB due to a light westerly wind, but will be nearby along the Mohawk River, so have decided to mention BCFG with VFR conditions prevailing at the terminal. Fog should dissipate by around 13Z, with clear skies through the rest of the period. Winds will initially be light and variable into the morning, then becoming south-southwest around 5-6 kt by afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. RH values will be 35 to 50 percent this afternoon, 70 to 100 percent tonight, and 55 to 70 percent Saturday afternoon as showers and thunderstorm ahead of a cold front approach. Light west winds this morning at less than 15 mph will become south this afternoon, continuing tonight. Winds become south to southwest Saturday at 10 to 15 mph and some gusts are possible late morning through afternoon of 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Drier weather returns today before the next frontal system tracks through our region Saturday with the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS FXUS61 KALY 271023 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 623 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog continues around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will burn off within a couple of hours after sunrise. A mostly sunny sky will prevail through this afternoon. Winds will be light and temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s but mid to upper 60s in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection increases through tonight as boundary layer flow becomes southwest and increases in speed. Some of the increasing boundary layer winds will mix down and channel into the Hudson Valley and other south and southwest facing valleys producing steady light south surface winds, preventing temperatures from falling as much as they could. Boundary layer temperatures increase quite considerably and boundary layer winds shift to more westerly by midday, contributing to some downsloping. Based on a consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles the timing of the best low level forcing, clouds, showers and thunderstorms should be in the afternoon and evening. So, with the prospect of quite a bit of sun on Saturday, with perhaps intervals of high clouds, temperatures should reach near 80 to lower 80s but lower to mid 70s in higher terrain. West to southwest flow through the boundary layer will limit low level forcing to some degree but thermal forcing along the leading edge of the cold advection will provide some low level forcing. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should mainly be scattered but some better coverage is possible in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, that will decrease in coverage as it moves east and south. Some instability and shear could support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and SPC has some of eastern NY in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The greatest instability of greater than 1000 j/kg could be in central NY with CAPEs in eastern NY peaking below 1000 j/kg. It would seem that any chance for severe thunderstorms would be if an enhanced downdraft had some acceleration due to mixing of winds from the boundary layer to the surface. However, there is a bit of a consensus that the boundary layer westerly flow will slowly weaken through the day. So, there are mixed signals as to the possible coverage and intensity of convection Saturday. The cold front tracks through Saturday evening and any showers and thunderstorms should exit by midnight. Cooler and drier weather Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s but lower to mid 60s higher terrain. Temperatures drop quickly Sunday night into Monday morning but no areas should drop to frost levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period starts out on Monday with high pressure initially over the region, then shifting eastward towards the New England coast. So after a cool start, temperatures should warm nicely due to a developing southerly flow and sunshine through much of the day. Monday night a warm front will be lifting northward across the region. This front could bring some showers as it passes through, with the best chance across northern areas. Our area is expected to be in a warm sector by Tuesday, however a few showers will still be possible, as there could be a disturbance or two passing through in the zonal flow aloft. The core of the upper level ridge should remain well south and west of our region, over the Ohio/Tenn valley regions. With increasing humidity levels even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Temperatures will likely warm to around 10 degrees above normal for October 1st. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will approach and then gradually move southward across the region, as low pressure tracks from southern Quebec across northern Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a signal for a fairly strong anticyclone to track eastward from south-central Canada that will force the cold front southward. At this time it appears the front will move across the bulk of our area on Wednesday. At least scattered showers and again perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will be very mild for this time of year ahead of the front. The ECMWF is now showing a faster frontal passage, so a blended approach was utilized for max temperatures. Models diverge more significantly Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is indicating a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front just to our south, with a soaking rainfall across much of our region. However, the ECMWF and CMC are depicting a drier solution, with the surface high in Canada positioned closer and the front and any associated waves of low pressure well south of our region. Again will take a blended approach for now with chance pops, but higher confidence in temperatures cooling back to normal levels for early October. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Skies are mainly clear across the area, however patchy dense fog has developed and will affect the majority of the TAF sites through the rest of the overnight into the early morning hours. KPOU already experiencing VLIFR conditions with fog and will likely remain VLIFR/LIFR until the fog dissipates. Fog is beginning to develop at KPSF/KGFL, with IFR/LIFR becoming likely in the next few hours after 06Z. Fog is not expected at KALB due to a light westerly wind, but will be nearby along the Mohawk River, so have decided to mention BCFG with VFR conditions prevailing at the terminal. Fog should dissipate by around 13Z, with clear skies through the rest of the period. Winds will initially be light and variable into the morning, then becoming south-southwest around 5-6 kt by afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. RH values will be 35 to 50 percent this afternoon, 70 to 100 percent tonight, and 55 to 70 percent Saturday afternoon as showers and thunderstorm ahead of a cold front approach. Light west winds this morning at less than 15 mph will become south this afternoon, continuing tonight. Winds become south to southwest Saturday at 10 to 15 mph and some gusts are possible late morning through afternoon of 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Drier weather returns today before the next frontal system tracks through our region Saturday with the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS FXUS61 KALY 271055 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 655 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog continues around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will burn off within a couple of hours after sunrise. A mostly sunny sky will prevail through this afternoon. Winds will be light and temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s but mid to upper 60s in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection increases through tonight as boundary layer flow becomes southwest and increases in speed. Some of the increasing boundary layer winds will mix down and channel into the Hudson Valley and other south and southwest facing valleys producing steady light south surface winds, preventing temperatures from falling as much as they could. Boundary layer temperatures increase quite considerably and boundary layer winds shift to more westerly by midday, contributing to some downsloping. Based on a consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles the timing of the best low level forcing, clouds, showers and thunderstorms should be in the afternoon and evening. So, with the prospect of quite a bit of sun on Saturday, with perhaps intervals of high clouds, temperatures should reach near 80 to lower 80s but lower to mid 70s in higher terrain. West to southwest flow through the boundary layer will limit low level forcing to some degree but thermal forcing along the leading edge of the cold advection will provide some low level forcing. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should mainly be scattered but some better coverage is possible in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, that will decrease in coverage as it moves east and south. Some instability and shear could support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and SPC has some of eastern NY in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The greatest instability of greater than 1000 j/kg could be in central NY with CAPEs in eastern NY peaking below 1000 j/kg. It would seem that any chance for severe thunderstorms would be if an enhanced downdraft had some acceleration due to mixing of winds from the boundary layer to the surface. However, there is a bit of a consensus that the boundary layer westerly flow will slowly weaken through the day. So, there are mixed signals as to the possible coverage and intensity of convection Saturday. The cold front tracks through Saturday evening and any showers and thunderstorms should exit by midnight. Cooler and drier weather Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s but lower to mid 60s higher terrain. Temperatures drop quickly Sunday night into Monday morning but no areas should drop to frost levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period starts out on Monday with high pressure initially over the region, then shifting eastward towards the New England coast. So after a cool start, temperatures should warm nicely due to a developing southerly flow and sunshine through much of the day. Monday night a warm front will be lifting northward across the region. This front could bring some showers as it passes through, with the best chance across northern areas. Our area is expected to be in a warm sector by Tuesday, however a few showers will still be possible, as there could be a disturbance or two passing through in the zonal flow aloft. The core of the upper level ridge should remain well south and west of our region, over the Ohio/Tenn valley regions. With increasing humidity levels even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Temperatures will likely warm to around 10 degrees above normal for October 1st. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will approach and then gradually move southward across the region, as low pressure tracks from southern Quebec across northern Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a signal for a fairly strong anticyclone to track eastward from south-central Canada that will force the cold front southward. At this time it appears the front will move across the bulk of our area on Wednesday. At least scattered showers and again perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will be very mild for this time of year ahead of the front. The ECMWF is now showing a faster frontal passage, so a blended approach was utilized for max temperatures. Models diverge more significantly Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is indicating a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front just to our south, with a soaking rainfall across much of our region. However, the ECMWF and CMC are depicting a drier solution, with the surface high in Canada positioned closer and the front and any associated waves of low pressure well south of our region. Again will take a blended approach for now with chance pops, but higher confidence in temperatures cooling back to normal levels for early October. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dense fog occurring at KPOU/KGFL early this morning, but VFR conditions are prevailing at KALB/KPSF where fog did not develop. The fog should dissipate by around 13Z, with clear skies through the rest of the period, except for some high level clouds moving in late tonight. VFR conditions should prevail at most of the TAF sites, however fog will be possible at KGFL overnight again as winds are expected to become calm there. Winds will initially be light and variable into the morning, then becoming south-southwest around 5-6 kt by afternoon. Winds will become near calm at KGFL/KPOU overnight, but a southerly wind around 5-10 kt will persist/develop at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. RH values will be 35 to 50 percent this afternoon, 70 to 100 percent tonight, and 55 to 70 percent Saturday afternoon as showers and thunderstorm ahead of a cold front approach. Light west winds this morning at less than 15 mph will become south this afternoon, continuing tonight. Winds become south to southwest Saturday at 10 to 15 mph and some gusts are possible late morning through afternoon of 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Drier weather returns today before the next frontal system tracks through our region Saturday with the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS FXUS61 KALY 271523 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1123 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated at 11 AM. Lots of sunshine across the area late this morning with just a few cu forming over the Catskills and Adirondacks. Temperatures are on track to reach the mid 60s to mid 70s. Previous discussion is below. Fog continues around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes and will burn off within a couple of hours after sunrise. A mostly sunny sky will prevail through this afternoon. Winds will be light and temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s but mid to upper 60s in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection increases through tonight as boundary layer flow becomes southwest and increases in speed. Some of the increasing boundary layer winds will mix down and channel into the Hudson Valley and other south and southwest facing valleys producing steady light south surface winds, preventing temperatures from falling as much as they could. Boundary layer temperatures increase quite considerably and boundary layer winds shift to more westerly by midday, contributing to some downsloping. Based on a consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles the timing of the best low level forcing, clouds, showers and thunderstorms should be in the afternoon and evening. So, with the prospect of quite a bit of sun on Saturday, with perhaps intervals of high clouds, temperatures should reach near 80 to lower 80s but lower to mid 70s in higher terrain. West to southwest flow through the boundary layer will limit low level forcing to some degree but thermal forcing along the leading edge of the cold advection will provide some low level forcing. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should mainly be scattered but some better coverage is possible in the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, that will decrease in coverage as it moves east and south. Some instability and shear could support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and SPC has some of eastern NY in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The greatest instability of greater than 1000 j/kg could be in central NY with CAPEs in eastern NY peaking below 1000 j/kg. It would seem that any chance for severe thunderstorms would be if an enhanced downdraft had some acceleration due to mixing of winds from the boundary layer to the surface. However, there is a bit of a consensus that the boundary layer westerly flow will slowly weaken through the day. So, there are mixed signals as to the possible coverage and intensity of convection Saturday. The cold front tracks through Saturday evening and any showers and thunderstorms should exit by midnight. Cooler and drier weather Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s but lower to mid 60s higher terrain. Temperatures drop quickly Sunday night into Monday morning but no areas should drop to frost levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period starts out on Monday with high pressure initially over the region, then shifting eastward towards the New England coast. So after a cool start, temperatures should warm nicely due to a developing southerly flow and sunshine through much of the day. Monday night a warm front will be lifting northward across the region. This front could bring some showers as it passes through, with the best chance across northern areas. Our area is expected to be in a warm sector by Tuesday, however a few showers will still be possible, as there could be a disturbance or two passing through in the zonal flow aloft. The core of the upper level ridge should remain well south and west of our region, over the Ohio/Tenn valley regions. With increasing humidity levels even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Temperatures will likely warm to around 10 degrees above normal for October 1st. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will approach and then gradually move southward across the region, as low pressure tracks from southern Quebec across northern Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a signal for a fairly strong anticyclone to track eastward from south-central Canada that will force the cold front southward. At this time it appears the front will move across the bulk of our area on Wednesday. At least scattered showers and again perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will be very mild for this time of year ahead of the front. The ECMWF is now showing a faster frontal passage, so a blended approach was utilized for max temperatures. Models diverge more significantly Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is indicating a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front just to our south, with a soaking rainfall across much of our region. However, the ECMWF and CMC are depicting a drier solution, with the surface high in Canada positioned closer and the front and any associated waves of low pressure well south of our region. Again will take a blended approach for now with chance pops, but higher confidence in temperatures cooling back to normal levels for early October. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dense fog occurring at KPOU/KGFL early this morning, but VFR conditions are prevailing at KALB/KPSF where fog did not develop. The fog should dissipate by around 13Z, with clear skies through the rest of the period, except for some high level clouds moving in late tonight. VFR conditions should prevail at most of the TAF sites, however fog will be possible at KGFL overnight again as winds are expected to become calm there. Winds will initially be light and variable into the morning, then becoming south-southwest around 5-6 kt by afternoon. Winds will become near calm at KGFL/KPOU overnight, but a southerly wind around 5-10 kt will persist/develop at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and near seasonable temperatures today. Warmer air arrives Saturday ahead of our next frontal boundary. Clouds will increase, as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms. RH values will be 35 to 50 percent this afternoon, 70 to 100 percent tonight, and 55 to 70 percent Saturday afternoon as showers and thunderstorm ahead of a cold front approach. Light west winds this morning at less than 15 mph will become south this afternoon, continuing tonight. Winds become south to southwest Saturday at 10 to 15 mph and some gusts are possible late morning through afternoon of 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Drier weather returns today before the next frontal system tracks through our region Saturday with the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, river and streams levels should generally hold fairly steady, as rainfall amounts will not be high enough to have any major impact on flows. According to the USGS streamflows and the latest US Drought Monitor, most of the forecast area waterways are at normal or below normal levels for late September, and some areas are in D0 or are abnormally dry per todays drought monitor issuance. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...MSE/NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS