Probability of a Tropical Cyclone

Frame Controls: Forecast Probability of a Tropical Cyclone
Explanation and Disclaimer

September 14, 2010: Updated training set to include storms in the
best track data though 2009.

Forecast including only seasonal and 100-day lowpass patterns Forecast including only seasonal and MJO patterns

Verification data (plotted in the longitude-time domain).

The predictor set changed slightly during the weeks before July 21, 2011,
leading to some erroneous probabilities. The error was fixed July 21.

Loop Mode:

ADVANCE
BACK and FORTH

Animate Frames:

REVIEW STOP FWD

Dwell First:

dec start dwell
inc start dwell

Dwell Last:

decrease end dwell increase end dwell

Adjust Speed:

Slower Faster

Advance One:

Backward Forward
Frame No:
Experimental tropical cyclogenesis prediction scheme

This is a work in progress!