Recent Evolution of OLR Anomalies and Related 850 HPa Wind
Frame Controls: OLR and 850 hPa Wind Maps

For a description of the algorithm used to diagnose the modes, see
Roundy, P.E., 2011: Tracking and prediction of large-scale organzed tropical convection by spectrally focused two-step space-time EOF analysis. Q.J. Roy. Met. Soc., In Press.

The wind data on these figures prior to 19 Aug 2011 were incorrect.
The OLR anomalies were not impacted by the error.
Total signals are now included in panel a.

Loop Mode:


Animate Frames:


Dwell First:

dec start dwell
inc start dwell

Dwell Last:

decrease end dwell increase end dwell

Adjust Speed:

Slower Faster

Advance One:

Backward Forward
Frame No:
Processed OLR data
Reference wind vectors in panels b, c, e, and f are 5 m/s.
The reference vector in Panel d is 20 m/s.
Skill in panel c ranges from 24-30 days IF the forecast includes high amplitude signals.
Skill in panel d is 3-6 days, but the smallest scale easterly waves are not well resolved.
Skill in panels b and f remains to be assessed.

The algorithm for extracting the OLR anomaly signals is described here.