UAlbany HWRF Real-Time SHOUT Sensitivities & Target Locations Ryan D. Torn, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada

danny04l (al042015) initialized 0000UTC 21 August 2015

Track, Intensity

F072 Major Ellipse Distance (valid 0000 UTC 24 August), Ratio: 1.842886

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Zonal Steering Wind Mean Zonal Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Meridional Steering Wind Mean Meridional Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

F072 Minimum Sea-level Pressure (valid 0000 UTC 24 August), Amplification: 0.7389774

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

F072 10 m Kinetic Energy within 200 km (valid 0000 UTC 24 August), Amplification: 0.4415807

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

F096 Major Ellipse Distance (valid 0000 UTC 25 August), Ratio: 2.111494

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Zonal Steering Wind Mean Zonal Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Meridional Steering Wind Mean Meridional Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

F096 Minimum Sea-level Pressure (valid 0000 UTC 25 August), Amplification: 0.3589662

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

F096 10 m Kinetic Energy within 200 km (valid 0000 UTC 25 August), Amplification: 0.3785142

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

F120 Major Ellipse Distance (valid 0000 UTC 26 August), Ratio: 1.779543

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Zonal Steering Wind Mean Zonal Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Meridional Steering Wind Mean Meridional Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

F120 Minimum Sea-level Pressure (valid 0000 UTC 26 August), Amplification: 0.3526503

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

F120 10 m Kinetic Energy within 200 km (valid 0000 UTC 26 August), Amplification: 0.3603286

	000 h (21/00)	012 h (21/12)	024 h (22/00)	036 h (22/12)	048 h (23/00)	060 h (23/12)	072 h (24/00)	084 h (24/12)	096 h (25/00)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	084	096	Loop

Notes:

• The date in the Table title is the forecast valid time (i.e., the date of the forecast that you are trying to improve.
• The dates in the first row of each table represent the time when observations would be taken to improve the valid-time forecast.
• Dropsonde impact is the hypothetical reduction in the forecast metric ensemble standard deviation by assimilating all mandatory level data from a dropsonde at that location.
• Composite Diff. is the normalized difference betweeen the mean of the 10 members with the largest metric value and the mean of the 10 members with the smallest metric value (shaded). The normalized difference is computed by taking the difference and dividing by the ensemble standard deviation. The contours or wind barbs are the ensemble mean values.
• Sensitivity is the change in the forecast metric value per one standard deviation change in the field at that location. Shaded field units are the same as the forecast metric.