UAlbany HWRF Real-Time SHOUT Sensitivities & Target Locations Ryan D. Torn, Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada

edouard06l (al062014) initialized 1200UTC 12 September 2014

Track, Intensity

F072 Major Ellipse Distance (valid 1200 UTC 15 September), Ratio: 1.757664

	000 h (12/12)	012 h (13/00)	024 h (13/12)	036 h (14/00)	048 h (14/12)	060 h (15/00)	072 h (15/12)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Zonal Steering Wind Mean Zonal Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Meridional Steering Wind Mean Meridional Wind between 300-850 hPa, which is the typical TC steering level (units: m/s)
Composite Diff.	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Sensitivity (dJ/dx)	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

F072 Minimum Sea-level Pressure (valid 1200 UTC 15 September), Amplification: 5.385347

	000 h (12/12)	012 h (13/00)	024 h (13/12)	036 h (14/00)	048 h (14/12)	060 h (15/00)	072 h (15/12)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

F072 10 m Kinetic Energy within 200 km (valid 1200 UTC 15 September), Amplification: 4.734855

	000 h (12/12)	012 h (13/00)	024 h (13/12)	036 h (14/00)	048 h (14/12)	060 h (15/00)	072 h (15/12)	Loop
All Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating all variables from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Wind Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating wind from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
Temp. Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating temperature from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop
RH Dropsonde Observation Impact Hypothetical percentage reduction in forecast metric standard deviation due to assimilating RH from dropsonde at that location.
Dropsonde Impact	000	012	024	036	048	060	072	Loop

Notes:

• The date in the Table title is the forecast valid time (i.e., the date of the forecast that you are trying to improve.
• Composite Diff. is the normalized difference betweeen the mean of the 10 members with the largest metric value and the mean of the 10 members with the smallest metric value (shaded). The normalized difference is computed by taking the difference and dividing by the ensemble standard deviation. The contours or wind barbs are the ensemble mean values.
• Sensitivity is the change in the forecast metric value per one standard deviation change in the field at that location. Shaded field units are the same as the forecast metric.