302 FXUS61 KALY 241826 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 226 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The front will move east of the region Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures for much of the upcoming week. A few lake effect rain showers will be possible across the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall also possible in this area. As of 225 PM EDT, cluster of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms tracking north-northeast across western portions of the Capital Region and Schoharie County, and will continue moving across northern portions of the Capital Region, eastern Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region through 4 PM. Meanwhile, stronger thunderstorms have developed across west central NYS closer to the pre-frontal trough and cold front. Some of these will track into far northern Herkimer County by mid afternoon, and eventually into much of the SW Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley closer to sunset. This region will be within a corridor of 30-40 KT deep layer shear, along with MU CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg. Some strong/isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible through sunset, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main severe threat. In addition, there is the potential for some training of showers/thunderstorms through early evening across this area. Latest HREFs suggest probs for > 1 inch/3 hours is 70-90% across portions of the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley, however probs for >3"/3 hours is under 10%. Most of this rain will be highly beneficial, however can not completely rule out isolated flash flooding across the western Mohawk Valley should multiple rounds of heavy downpours occur. The showers/thunderstorms should decrease as they shift farther south and east this evening, with scattered showers occurring mainly near and south/east of Albany after midnight. Otherwise mild and humid with lows mainly in the 60s. The cold front tracks east of the region by midday Monday. There could be a brief window of increasing instability and forcing for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop across NW CT, the Berkshires and mid Hudson Valley prior to early afternoon. Otherwise, morning clouds followed by afternoon clearing and turning less humid in the afternoon. High temps in the mid 70s to around 80 in valley areas, and mainly 60s to lower 70s farther north and west. Cooler Monday night with clear to partly cloudy skies. A few lake effect rain showers may develop later at night across the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley. Low temps in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming week, along with mainly dry conditions. - Low chance of rain showers (20-40%) across high terrain and lake effect regions Monday night through Wednesday, and areas mainly north of I-90 late Thursday into Friday. Cool temperatures through the long term, with mainly dry weather with the exception of isolated rain showers associated with upper level cold pool/cyclonic flow and upstream warm Great Lakes, which would be mainly across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Reinforcing cold front and passing upper level disturbance could also bring isolated/scattered showers late Thursday into Friday, mainly north of I-90. High temps mainly 70-75 in valleys and 60s across most higher elevations, although some slight warming could occur by Sunday. Overnight lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, though portions of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and eastern Catskills could drop into the 30s in isolated areas. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers are currently tracking north/northeast will likely impact KALB and KGFL through around 20Z/Sun. There had been some lightning within this cluster of showers, but it since has diminished. Will keep a TEMPO for TSRA at both sites during this time, along with MVFR conditions. Outside of these showers/thunderstorms, mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, although occasional MVFR Cigs will remain possible at KPSF. For tonight, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will track southeast and may impact KGFL/KALB between 04Z-09Z/Mon, with remnant showers possibly reaching KPSF/KPOU between 08Z-13Z/Mon. Areas of MVFR/IFR Cigs and MVFR Vsbys will be possible, even outside of any showers. Flight conditions should then improve to VFR in the wake of the cold front between 14Z-18Z/Mon. South to southeast winds will remain 8-14 KT with a few gusts up to 25 KT this afternoon/evening, before decreasing to less than 10 KT after midnight. Winds will then shift into the west after the cold front passes at 5-10 KT by midday Monday. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Speck SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL