081 FXUS61 KALY 301047 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 647 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifting east off the New England coast will provide continued dry weather through today, along with very warm temperatures. It will be slightly cooler on Tuesday, but with increasing humidity along with some showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. More seasonable weather returns for mid to late week with an additional system bringing the potential for some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Message: - Summertime heat returns today with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Discussion: Tranquil and relatively cool conditions in place early this morning with some patchy fog in typically favored spots. High pressure over the region this morning will shift east off the coast, with a developing SW flow resulting in warming aloft. 850 mb temperature anomalies will increase to +1 to +2 STDEV. Forecast soundings show mixing up to 850 mb this afternoon, which should translate to high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s in most valley areas. Moisture still looks slow to return, with dewpoints rising into the lower to upper 60s late in the day. So maximum feels-like temperatures of 90-95F are expected in lower elevations. These do not reach Heat Advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday associated with a cold front passage. A few severe storms may occur during the afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Discussion: Moisture returns in earnest tonight, with dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 60s and PWAT anomalies increasing to +2 to +3 STDEV by early Tue morning. As a warm front lifts northward across the region, scattered to numerous showers and a few T-storms will develop. Guidance differs in coverage/timing, with the HRRR showing the greatest coverage and after midnight arrival. Other CAMs (NAMNest/FV-3/WRF-ARW) are less aggressive with coverage and later. Some limited elevated instability is forecast (< 500 J/Kg MUCAPE), so will mention thunder in some spots, but severe storms are not anticipated. On Tue morning, the system's cold front and associated upper level trough axis looks to be approaching western NY. This system will track eastward across our area Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Timing does look slightly slower than prior forecasts. Some breaks of sunshine should allow temperatures to reach the lower/mid 80s in most valley locations. Humidity levels will become oppressive with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s. This will result in SBCAPE around 1000-2000 J/Kg(greatest from ALB south/east) along with 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. With slower timing there is a severe threat across much of the area, with areas north/west of Albany early to mid afternoon and south/east late afternoon to early evening. Main threat looks to be damaging wind gusts although isolated large hail is possible in sustained updrafts. Mitigating factor is weak mid level lapse rates. Much of the area continues to be in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center. Will monitor trends for possible upgrade if confidence increases in favorable conditions overlapping (forcing/instability/shear). There will also be a threat for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding with PWAT anomalies remaining quite high at +2 to +3 STDEV. Showers/T-storms could linger into Tue evening south/east of Albany as the cold front moves through. Drying will occur Tue night in wake of the cold front. It will be mild, with gradually lowering humidity. Lows look to range from the upper 50s in the Adirondacks to mid 60s in the Hudson Valley. Surface ridging builds in Wed with zonal flow aloft. It will be noticeably less humid with near normal temperatures and a NW breeze. Much of Wed night looks dry, although chances for showers will start to increase across the W. Adirondacks late as the leading edge of an upper level trough approaches from SE Canada and the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended forecast period opens with a strong mid and upper level trough moving across southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast. A cold front and a short-wave in the northwest flow aloft will likely focus some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side depending on the amount of instability in place and the timing of the cold front, which is variable on the medium range guidance and ensembles. Mid level heights will be falling and the deep layer shear increasing ahead of the short- wave. Highs will be near normal based on the NBM with upper 70s to mid 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to upper 70s over the hills and mtns. The showers/t-storms will decrease Thu night with strong cold advection in the wake of the front with breezy conditions. Lows fall back into the 50s with some 40s over the Adirondacks Park. Independence Day into Saturday...A cooler and drier air mass builds in for the holiday. Temps will run near to slightly below normal with a few sprinkles or isolated showers close to southern VT in the cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region late in the day into Fri night. Humidity levels will be comfortable for the holiday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the 70s to near 80F in the mid Hudson Valley with some 60s over the higher terrain. Lows will be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the mtns. Saturday temps moderate to near normal values with the return flow of high pressure moving to the south and east off the coast. Some mid and high clouds increase from the south and west ahead of a warm front late in the day. The close of the holiday weekend will be a bit more unsettled with isolated to scattered showers ahead of a warm front Sat night, but the timing of a cold front/pre-frontal sfc trough is uncertain for the afternoon period. The NBM supports a chance of afternoon showers and isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms in the more humid air mass. Some of the guidance has low and mid level ridging building in from the south and west for a drier day. Temps rise back above normal in the warm sector with some 90F readings possible from the Tri Cities southward down the mid Hudson Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thru 12Z Tue...High pressure over eastern NY and western New England this morning will move east of the region during the afternoon. A warm front approaches from the south and west tonight. LIFR/IFR mist/fog will burn off quickly this morning prior to 13Z-14Z at KGFL/KPSF. Widespread VFR conditions return for the late morning morning into the afternoon/early evening with an increase of mid and high clouds. A warm front will bring some scattered light showers or an isolated thunderstorm between 04Z-10Z/TUE. We included some VCSH groups prior to 04Z/TUE. PROB30 groups with potential MVFR cigs/vsbys were added in the early to mid morning for all the TAF sites. We kept thunder out at this time. The winds will increase from the south/southeast at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon...and become light and variable direction at 5 KT or less overnight. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/Rathbun NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula