138 FXUS01 KWBC 010831 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 03 2025 ...Showers and thunderstorms expected to reach the Desert Southwest tonight and then the Four Corners on Monday with a risk for flash flooding... ...A round of rain expected for the northern Rockies/High Plains tonight into Monday morning with gusty winds... ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected to impact the Northern Plains on Monday, then across the Central Plains later on Monday into Tuesday morning with gusty winds... ...Tropical moisture lingering and becoming more focused across South Florida... June 2025 will begin with an anomalously deep low pressure system departing New England as increasingly unsettled weather is forecast to set up across the Southwest Sunday into Monday, and then across the mid-section of the country Monday into Tuesday. As the deep cyclone gradually moves further into southeastern Canada today, rain across interior New England will continue to taper off. The size and proximity of this system will continue to bring gusty winds through much of the Northeast for today while funneling in much cooler air into the region from Canada. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms are expected across the south-central Plains today associated with a forming frontal boundary trailing from a weak low pressure wave. Some of the thunderstorms will also extend farther east across the Tennessee Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region in association with the eastern extension of the front. These activities are expected to largely dissipate by tonight as a cool and more unstable high pressure system settles and dominates the eastern U.S. by Monday. While the eastern U.S. enjoys cool and mostly fine weather, an increasingly unsettled weather pattern is setting up across the western U.S. A strong cold front arriving from the Pacific is bringing an end to the recent spell of heat across the northwestern part of the country. This front will gradually push into the northern Plains on Monday before colliding with moisture streaming up from Mexico and the southern Rockies to produce a around of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the mid-section of the country Monday into Tuesday. The moisture coming from Mexico is associated with an upper-level low which carries some of the remnant moisture from former eastern Pacific tropical storm Alvin. This batch of moisture is expected to bring a around of showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest tonight and then move into the Four Corners on Monday where locally terrain-enhanced rainfall could pose a risk for flash flooding. The northern piece of moisture is associated with the Pacific cold front mutually interacting with a high pressure system building south from western Canada. This interaction is forecast to bring a round of rain for the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains tonight into Monday morning with gusty winds. Monday will likely find a low pressure system developing over the central High Plains with a sharp front extending across the northern Plains. The dynamics associated with the sharp front will trigger showers and possibly severe thunderstorms which are expected to form over the central High Plains Monday evening, then spreading rapidly eastward across the northern Plains through Monday night into Tuesday morning behind the sharp front. Heavy downpours associated with these storms can result in flash flooding issues. In addition, these storms can produce very large hail and damaging winds. Blustery north to northwestern winds behind the front will usher much cooler air into the central Plains Monday night to dispel the near-record high temperatures in the upper Midwest Monday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will also be active farther south ahead of a dry line where severe thunderstorms are also possible down across the southern High Plains Monday evening/night. Across the Sunshine State, tropical moisture in the vicinity of a stalled front is forecast to linger and gradually become more focused across South Florida where heavy rain becomes possible by later on Monday. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$