338 FXUS61 KALY 281951 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 351 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms and rain showers develop late this afternoon into this evening. A few of these storms could become severe. Once these showers and storms quickly move through, dry conditions are in store for tonight with patchy fog tomorrow morning. Dry conditions tomorrow through Monday. Summertime temperatures return for Monday. Rain shower and thunderstorm activity returns for Tuesday morning and afternoon ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. Primary hazards being lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. From now through 11 PM Tonight: Ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop, ahead of a cold front, in the next two to three hours across eastern NY are still favored by latest high resolution forecast model guidance. The extent of coverage and how strong they become continues to fluctuate as latest high resolution forecast model guidance accounts for the latest environment conditions, such as where are current storms and energy needed to strengthen them. Some models show multiple clusters of storms developing, while others only have a few storms developing. Usually, we like to see more agreement with conditions needed for severe storms. But as convective allowing models (also known as CAMs), are not in good agreement on conditions needed, this hinders forecast confidence on how strong storms become and who could see a severe storm tonight. The most favorable timing for thunderstorms is between 5 PM and 9 PM tonight. Primary hazards are still lightning, strong winds, and heavy rain. After 11 PM Tonight: Once rain showers and thunderstorms move through, dry conditions are in store with patchy fog for tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures range in the 50s and 60s as the cold front moves through eastern New York and western New England. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: -Summertime heat returns for eastern NY and western New England on Monday with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Discussion: Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow across the Great Lakes bringing dry conditions for eastern New York and western New England. Dry conditions continue through Monday afternoon when a low pressure system begins to move eastward over the Great Lakes region bringing increasing clouds for late Monday afternoon and less than 30% chance of light rain showers Monday night. High temperatures on Sunday range in the 80s across valley locations, while higher terrain locations range in the 70s. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday range in the 50s and 60s. For Monday, summertime heat returns to eastern New York and western New England with highs in the valleys in the upper 80s to low 90s. Higher terrain locations range in the low to mid 80s. Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.3 data for high temperatures greater than 90 degrees is between 80 and 90 percent across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Mid to Upper Hudson Valley, Helderbergs, and portions of the Litchfield Hills. One forecast note is that the feels-like temperatures should feel- like the actual temperature outside (hot) for Monday as dew point temperatures are forecasted to be in the 60s and a more humid airmass doesn't arrive until the overnight hours Monday. Our criteria for Heat Advisories are for feels-like temperatures greater than 95 degrees for more than 2 hours across eastern NY, so we'll continue to monitor trends if heat headlines are needed. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday is looking to be our next chance (70%) for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (15-40%) across eastern NY and western New England. Ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop is favored by latest NBM data and ensemble forecast model guidances particularly for the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. While this is still a few days away and depending on the track of a surface low pressure system moving through with an associated cold front, primary concerns are heavy downpours, lightning, and strong winds with thunderstorms that could develop Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, drier conditions return as surface high pressure builds in and continues through Thursday morning. Lots of uncertainty for Thursday afternoon with ensemble forecast models on if an upper level shortwave moves through bringing less than 30 percent chances for rain showers Thursday. As the 4th of July is now included in the forecast period, this far out is still uncertain and depending on how fast the upper level shortwave moves through on Thursday, dry conditions could be in store if strong surface high pressure builds back in. Tuesday morning could feel muggy as a more humid airmass is in place and low temperatures range in the upper 60s and low 70s. The cold front that moves through eastern New York and western New England Tuesday brings relief from the heat with temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs range in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings range in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z Sunday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs will improve to VFR and become mainly BKN during the afternoon, as a warm front lifts north of the region. SCT TSRA are expected later this afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Will continue to advertise PROB30 mentions for now as latest CAMs remain in disagreement on exact timing of storms for the terminals, though confidence is higher for impacts mainly at KALB/KPOU where coverage is likely to be higher along the cold front. Once it passes, winds will become light to calm overnight, allowing for the development of fog/low stratus with residual moisture at KPSF/KPOU overnight. Conditions improve areawide to VFR late tonight with high pressure moving in. Winds today will be initially be southerly around 5-10 kt with gusts around 20 kt at KALB, increasing to 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds becoming light to calm overnight, and increase out of the west briefly Sunday morning to around 5 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Webb NEAR TERM...Webb SHORT TERM...Webb LONG TERM...Webb AVIATION...Speck