997 FXUS61 KALY 300232 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1032 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to track from west to east this evening. Some storms, mainly north and west of the Capital District, could be severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. Then, morning clouds and breezy winds tomorrow give way to breaks of sun along with cooler and much drier conditions. Chances for showers and some storms return Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...Severe Thunderstorm Watch expired at 10 PM. While there still will be additional showers with some embedded thunderstorms along the cold front, the severe threat has diminished with very limited instability and increasing CIN. The main cold front is moving into central NY late this evening and will continue sweep eastward across our area into the early overnight hours. The warm/moist air mass will quickly be replaced by cooler/drier air along with winds shifting to the NW and gusting 20-30 mph at times. .PREV DISCUSSION[0734]...The storms moving across the S. Adirondacks will eventually weaken as they are encountering a more hostile convective environment (minimal CAPE). We are monitoring additional severe storms that have developed across parts of the Finger Lakes and moving east. There is uncertainty whether the intensity will hold as they run into more stable air mass in eastern NY. Even as thunderstorms diminish this evening, areas of rain showers will likely continue along and ahead of the main cold front before it clears our area by or shortly after Midnight. Overall QPF amounts range from 0.15 - 0.30" with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms reaching up to 1" (especially in the western/southern Adirondacks). Lower rainfall amounts 0.10 - 0.25" for areas south/east of Albany. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will move in for the late night hours, with much cooler temperatures expected by daybreak. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the Adirondacks to the mid 50s in Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, where the front will be crossing later in the overnight. In addition, winds turn breezy behind the boundary tonight with sustained winds 10-15mph and gusts reaching up to 25mph (strongest down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western New England). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - The growing season begins May 1 and there is a 45-50% chance for temperatures to be at or under 35 degrees in the Upper Hudson Valley Wednesday night. If confidence in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s increases, a frost advisory may be needed. Discussion: Cooler, much drier, and breezy on Wednesday as high pressure and subsidence quickly builds in behind the departing cold front. The breeziest winds will likely occur in the morning when the pressure gradient overhead will be tightest with gusts up to 25-30mph (mainly Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and western New England) with winds weakening through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect seasonably cooler temperatures as west- northwest winds advect a much drier Canadian air mass into the Northeast with daytime highs likely only in the mid to upper 60s (cooler 50s in the hill towns and higher terrain). Given deep boundary layer mixing on forecast soundings and a substantial dry layer above the inversion, we also leaned on the lower end of dew points as PWATs drop under 0.25". See our fire weather discussion for more details on fire weather potential. Mainly clear skies Wednesday night will favor even cooler temperatures thanks to radiational cooling with overnight lows likely in the low to mid 30s and even upper 20s in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks. Upper level clouds will be increasing overnight so that could limit frost potential but given the growing season does begin May 1 in the Hudson Valley, we will have to monitor the probabilities for temperatures to drop under 34-35 degrees. Currently, there is a 45-50% chance for lows to fall to 35 degrees or lower in the Upper Hudson Valley. Upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast on Thursday with increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a warm front advecting in a warmer air mass. Daytime highs rise closer to 70 for much of the region under increasing mid and upper level clouds. POPs have trended lower for Thursday as the ridging appears stronger than previous models sun and remains in control of our area. Strengthening isentropic lift Thursday night as the warm front front lifts northward through the area will likely result in a few areas of showers and POPs thus continue trend upwards into the chance range overnight. Given increasing dew points as we enter into the warm sector plus clouds/shower coverage, expect mild temperatures Thurs night with overnight lows only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday turns warmer and more humid as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an approaching shortwave upper level trough lifting north/eastward. Given higher dew points and increasing instability, we maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms for the afternoon hours when the trough axis is set to push through. Southwest flow persists aloft as yet another upper level shortwave tracks within the broad troughing positioned over the Great Lakes. An incoming cold front stalls over the Northeast Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough which should keep temperatures mild into Saturday. As the shortwave rides the stalled boundary Saturday morning into the afternoon, an organized area of rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms spreads across eastern NY and western New England. Once the organized area of rain arrives, the rest of the day will likely be a washout given strong forcing ahead of the shortwave and PWAT moisture plume greater than 1 - 1.50" lingering ahead of the boundary into New England. Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday through Tuesday as an omega blocking pattern develops over the Central and Eastern CONUS. There remains discrepancies on exactly where upper level shortwaves and/or potential cut-off lows develop which will impact where cloudier/cooler temperatures and wetter conditions develop. On the flip side, there are also discrepancies on where upper level ridging builds which would support dry and warmer conditions. For now, continue to show seasonable temperatures for early May during this period with slight chance and chance POPs (20 - 30%). && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...A strong cold front will move across the area late this evening into the early overnight hours. A period of showers is expected ahead of the cold front, which will move through KGFL through 02z, KALB 01z-03z, and KPOU/KPSF 02z-04z. Chances for thunder look lower now with a more stable air mass in place. Will monitor trends with TSRA to the west over central/southern NY, but these are expected to weaken as they move into eastern NY. Conditions will be mainly VFR this evening, although brief periods of MVFR vsby may occur with any moderate showers. Skies will gradually clear behind the cold front overnight with prevailing VFR, although a brief period of MVFR cigs may occur at KPSF prior to 12z. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at ALB/POU/PSF through this evening, as a southwest low-level jet around 40-50 kt moves overhead. The LLWS will dissipate after dark. Surface winds will be south-southwest around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt, becoming northwest overnight into Wednesday with similar speeds/gusts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and drier air returns tomorrow behind our cold front. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20-30mph through the morning but will decrease through the afternoon. As the winds weaken, relative humidity values drop and fall as low as 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and given the potential for some light showers tonight, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread. The mid-Hudson Valley seemed to have the higher potential for enhanced fire spread but given that the Catskills should help block the strongest winds, we held off on any SPS for now. The next chance for rainfall will be Thursday night into Friday. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/Speciale