905 FXUS61 KALY 010736 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 336 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier today in the wake of our coastal storm but still a bit breezy and cool as clouds give way to breaks of sun. It will start to feel more like summer over the upcoming week with very warm and more humid conditions. A slow moving cold front for the end of the week looks to bring some showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message: - Gusty winds up to 25-30 mph this afternoon with the strongest winds down the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region into western MA. Discussion: After a widespread soaking rain resulting in 1 to 4 inches of rain along with gusty winds reaching 30 - 40mph yesterday, today will be an improvement. While a few isolated showers will still be around in the southern/western Adirondacks and southern VT which will be closer to cold pool, mainly dry conditions expected elsewhere. As upper level troughing persist over the Northeast with our coastal low wrapping further into Quebec and high pressure building into the Ohio Valley, a lingering pressure gradient overhead will support somewhat breezy westerly winds. Although not nearly as breezy as yesterday, it will still be gusty with winds reaching up to 25-30mph with the strongest winds down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western MA. Otherwise, cloudy skies will give way to some breaks late day sun as weak subsidence builds behind our departing low. It will once again be quite cool as we remain under the influence of the trough with highs about 15 degrees below normal for June 1st rising only into the 50s to low 60s. Skies continue clearing into the early evening but this will be short-lived as a secondary shortwave rotates around our upper level trough and tracks towards eastern NY and western New England. This will support increased cloud coverage as we approach Midnight along with some scattered showers. Temperatures remain cool dropping into the 40s which again is below normal by about 5 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures trend warmer Monday and especially Tuesday as our upper level trough finally departs Monday night and large scale ridging from the Great Lakes builds eastward. Early leftover clouds on Monday give way to mostly sunny skies before some mid and upper level clouds return Monday night along the leading edge of an incoming mid-level warm front/ridge axis. A few mid/upper level clouds early on Tuesday diminish as skies turn very sunny thanks to ridging building overhead. Highs tomorrow still slightly below normal warming into the 60s to low 70s before it starts to feel more like summer by Tuesday reaching into the upper 70s with valley areas rising closer to 80. Humidity levels also increase by Tuesday but will luckily not be overly uncomfortable with the ridge axis in place. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions continue Wednesday through Thursday morning across eastern New York and western New England. With mostly sunny skies in store, high temperatures are going to soar into the 80s. Locations across the Greater Capital District down to the Mid-Hudson Valley have between 65 and 80 percent chance of reaching in the low 90s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Seasonal temperatures for the beginning of June continue through the end of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures during this timeframe range in the 50s and 60s. For beyond Thursday, we continue to monitor the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as ingredients needed to kick off thunderstorm development returns for eastern New York and western New England. With lots of uncertainty in exact timing, locations, and intensity, continued to keep the mention of widespread chances (less than 30 percent) for thunder during the afternoon hours for Thursday and Friday. For Saturday, ensemble forecast model guidances are hinting at the potential for a low pressure system to bring low chances (less than 30 percent) for isolated to scattered rain showers throughout the day. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... We start the TAF period with VFR conditions except for KPSF where MVFR conditions persist. VFR conditions are forecasted to continue through the TAF period with increasing wind gusts once again for this morning into this afternoon gradually ranging between 12 and 25 knots. Westerly winds continue through this afternoon and decreasing for the overnight hours to light and variable. For KPSF, conditions should begin to improve to VFR between 11z and 13z this morning. Kept mention of rain shower activity in PROB30 groups for KPSF, KALB, and KGFL for this afternoon as confidence is still low (less than 30 percent) to include mention in the prevailing group, but high enough to continue to keep in the TAFs. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... May 2025 Ranks within Top 10 Wettest May Months on Record: 1) 3rd Wettest for Poughkeepsie, NY with 8.10 inches 2) 3rd Wettest for Glens Falls,NY with 7.28 inches 3) 6th Wettest for Albany, NY with 7.43 inches New or Tied Precipitation Record for May 31: 1) Glens Falls - 2.57 inches (Previous Record May 31, 1992) 2) Albany - 1.67 inches (Ties May 31, 1998) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Webb AVIATION...Webb CLIMATE...Speciale