594 FXUS21 KWNC 241809 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT March 24 2026 SYNOPSIS: A pattern change is forecast over the West next week as mid-level low pressure progresses inland from the northeastern Pacific. Much cooler temperatures with high-elevation snow is expected over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). By April 2nd, surface low pressure is likely to develop across the High Plains with an associated high wind and wildfire risk. A multi-day period of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain is expected to affect the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the first week of April. HAZARDS Moderate risk of high winds for the Four Corners region and Central to Southern High Plains, Thu-Fri, Apr 2-3. Slight risk of high winds for parts of the western and central U.S., Wed-Sat, Apr 1-4. Slight risk of heavy snow for the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, Wed-Thu, Apr 1-2. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Northeast, Wed-Tue, Apr 1-7. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR FRIDAY MARCH 27 - TUESDAY MARCH 31: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 01 - TUESDAY APRIL 07: The GEFS and ECENS have trended towards a more amplified 500-hPa trough overspreading the western CONUS at the beginning of April. These ensemble mean solutions depict daily 500-hPa height anomalies of more than -60 meters for this region. Following the March heat wave, this longwave pattern change will usher in sharply colder temperatures to California and the Great Basin. A slight risk of heavy snow (April 1 and 2) is posted for the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains where the uncalibrated ECENS and GEFS indicate greater than a 20 percent chance of more than a foot of snow. Although accumulating snow is also expected farther inland across the higher elevations of the Great Basin and Central Rockies, the lack of model support from the GEFS precludes designation of a heavy snow hazard at this time. Downstream of the amplified 500-hPa trough, leeside cyclogenesis is likely across the High Plains later next week. Deterministic models and their ensemble members are converging on surface low development either over eastern Colorado or Wyoming. In addition, a majority of GEFS and ECENS ensemble members have this surface low rapidly deepening to 996-hPa or lower. Based on improved model agreement with this evolving surface and longwave 500-hPa pattern along with springtime climatology, a moderate risk of high winds (April 2 and 3) is posted for the High Plains, from eastern Wyoming south to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Unseasonably warm temperatures during the final week of March will continue to rapidly dry out fuels across the Great Plains. Gusty winds combined with these dry fuels will result in high wildfire danger, especially across the Central to Southern High Plains. Recently, the Morrill wildfire in southwestern Nebraska became the largest in state history as it burned more than 600,000 acres. A broader slight risk of high winds covers more of the western and central CONUS but is discontinued after April 4th when model spread increases. Compared to yesterday, the slight risk of heavy precipitation was expanded north to include more of the Great Lakes and east to the Central Appalachians. This expansion is related to the ensemble means putting more emphasis on enhanced precipitation along a predicted warm front early in week-2. The broadening in spatial coverage and timing is necessary due to uncertainty in the exact track of low pressure systems tracking east from the High Plains. Continued differences among the uncalibrated and reforecast tools preclude the designation of a moderate risk of heavy precipitation at this time. Given the time of year with adequate low-level moisture and instability, there is an increased chance of thunderstorms within the designated slight risk of heavy precipitation. The GEFS and ECENS agree that a weak 500-hPa trough persists over eastern Mainland Alaska through early April. No hazardous weather is anticipated during week-2 with below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation favored for southeastern parts of the state. Multiple Kona Lows brought flooding rainfall to Hawaii during mid-March. Although the week-2 outlook has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation, the ECENS and GEFS favor more of a wetter-than-normal trade wind regime during early April. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh $$