595 FXUS21 KWNC 221925 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 22 2026 SYNOPSIS: Extreme cold is likely to continue across much of the eastern half of the U.S. during the final week of January. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values are forecast and this will be further exacerbated by any residual impacts from the upcoming winter storm this weekend including reduced snow melt, power outages, and continued strain on heating resources. Efforts should be made to prepare for an extended period of brutally cold weather. In addition to the cold, there is an elevated chance for another system developing along the East Coast around the end of the month which could bring another round of snow. However, the exact timing and location of any low pressure development are uncertain at this time. Enhanced onshore flow increases the chance of heavy precipitation and high winds for southeastern Alaska from late January through the beginning of February. HAZARDS High risk of much below normal temperatures extending from the Ozarks through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and into parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Fri-Sun, Jan 30-Feb 1. Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., Fri-Mon, Jan 30-Feb 2. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Fri-Sat, Jan 30-31. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., Fri-Wed, Jan 30-Feb 4. Slight risk of high winds across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Fri-Sat, Jan 30-31. Slight risk of heavy precipitation across southeastern Alaska, Fri-Thu, Jan 30-Feb 5. Slight risk of high winds across southeastern Alaska, Fri-Thu, Jan 30-Feb 5. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 25 - THURSDAY JANUARY 29: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 30 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05: A major snow and ice storm is forecast across a broad swath of the eastern U.S. through this weekend into early next week. Behind this system, very cold temperatures are forecast, which will help maintain any snow pack. The persistence of the cold pattern is the result of a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) which leads to positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies at the high (middle) latitudes. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to increase the amplitude of the -AO, now depicting it peaking at greater than -5 standard deviations during the early to middle part of next week. Therefore, additional outbreaks of Arctic air are predicted to continue through the end of January into at least early February. At the outset of week-2, surface high pressure is forecast to drop southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains, and continue to progress into the south-central and southeastern states. The ECMWF and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show high probabilities (60-80 percent) for minimum temperatures falling below the 15th climatological percentile throughout much of the East early in week-2, with the ECMWF PET slightly more expansive. Uncalibrated ensemble means depict brutally cold minimum temperatures, with teens and 20s deg F extending into parts of the mid-South and Southeast. Temperatures less than 10 deg F are possible across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal Plain, with subzero temperatures more likely over portions of the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Interior Northeast. Given excellent tool agreement on the pattern, a high risk of much below normal temperatures extends from the Ozarks through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and into parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Jan 30-Feb 1, with increased snow cover favoring a colder outcome. Compared to yesterday, the high risk is extended across the Ozarks based on the enhanced signal in the PETs, and into parts of the Northeast where wind chill values are more likely to push temperatures into NWS cold hazard criteria. A moderate risk of much below normal temperatures extends from the Great Lakes and Northeast south to the Florida Peninsula through Feb 2. There remains an increased chance of a freeze/frost as far south as central Florida. Since wind chill values could at least briefly drop into the 30s deg F even in South Florida, this part of the Sunshine State was included in the moderate risk. A slight risk of much below normal temperatures is posted across portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Jan 30-31, where wind chill values of -20 to -40 deg F are possible as the surface high descends out of Canada. However, return flow favors a moderation of temperatures over these areas by the middle of the period with decreasing signal in the PETs. A broader slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is designated for much of the eastern and south-central CONUS through Feb 4, although many of these areas may finally also begin to moderate toward the end of week-2. A tight pressure gradient is forecast across portions of the Eastern Seaboard due to upstream Arctic high pressure centered across the Midwest and south-central CONUS and relatively lower pressures associated with troughing over the western Atlantic. This supports a slight risk of high winds for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Jan 31. As mentioned above, these gusty winds in combination with the predicted anomalously cold temperatures could result in dangerously low wind chill values. There are also signals for surface low pressure across the East, particularly in the recent 12z deterministic GFS and 0z ECMWF. The prevailing cold air mass may favor snow and ice into portions of the South, with additional heavy snow a concern across the East Coast. However, ensemble spread remains high with many individual members favoring more offshore tracks. No related hazards are posted today, but this will continue to be monitored for potential inclusion in subsequent outlooks. Multi-model ensemble means are in good agreement with a persistent and anomalous 500-hPa trough extending from Aleutians to the north-central Pacific. This amplified mid-level trough is forecast to enhance onshore flow and increase the chance for periods of heavy precipitation across southeastern Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS PETs (20-40 percent chances of 3-day amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile) and the persistent longwave pattern, the slight risk of heavy precipitation goes through the entirety of week-2. The ECMWF ensemble (wetter) and GEFS (much drier) diverge on whether enhanced onshore flow begins to affect California during week-2 as well. These large model differences preclude the designation of any hazardous precipitation for California at this time. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow $$