768 
FXUS21 KWNC 031814
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 03 2026

SYNOPSIS: Model ensembles continue to favor chances of above normal 
temperatures and a chance of extreme heat into week-2 tied to anomalous 
mid-level high pressure across southern and central Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). A 
potential surge of moisture from the Gulf of California may result in heavy 
precipitation over portions of the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Antecedent 
dryness, combined with little precipitation favored over the next two weeks 
supports a Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for portions of the Central and 
Southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of extreme heat across much of the Great Plains, Middle and Lower 
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast U.S., Fri-Sat, Sep 
11-12.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Four Corners and Great 
Basin, Fri-Sun, Sep 11-13.

Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for portions of the Central and Southern Plains 
and the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. 

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 06 - THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 10: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11 - THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 17: Dynamical model guidance 
remains in agreement regarding chances for subtropical ridging persisting over 
the south-central U.S. into early week-2, with the 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian 
ensembles depicting positive 500-hPa height anomalies early in week-2 across 
the central and eastern CONUS. This lends itself to continued elevated chances 
for above normal temperatures during much of the week-2 period. The 
Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) continue to show a greater than 20% chance 
for maximum temperatures to exceed the 95th climatological percentile for days 
8 & 9 across much of the central CONUS. Uncalibrated apparent temperatures 
continue to show apparent temperatures exceeding 105 degrees across portions of 
the Central and Southern Plains. By day 10, these chances are significantly 
reduced. Therefore, a slight risk of extreme heat remains posted for Sep 11 and 
12 or portions of the southeastern CONUS. 



Model ensembles indicate a mid-level trough off the West Coast early in week-2. 
This may combine with enhanced moisture from the Gulf of California due to 
tropical activity over the Eastern Pacific to generate heavy precipitation over 
the North American monsoon region. Uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS and 
ECMWF both indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation to exceed half 
an inch over the region early in the forecast period. Deterministic guidance in 
particular continues to show chances for heavy precipitation into the 
southwestern CONUS early in the week-2 period. Therefore, a slight risk of 
heavy precipitation is posted for Sep 11-13. This region is prone to flash 
flooding and caution should be exercised near canyons and creek beds, and 
additional rainfall may hamper recovery efforts from recent flooding in the 
Grand Canyon.



A Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk remains designated for parts of the Southern 
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent portions of the Central 
Plains, Ohio, Tennessee and Middle Mississippi Valleys, and Southeast U.S. An 
area of western Kentucky and Tennessee was added to the Rapid Onset Drought 
risk today, as with other areas of the ROD risk, this area has seen 20% to 40% 
of normal precipitation and deficits of 1 to 2 inches over the past 30 days. 
Near to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures remain 
forecast for this region over the next two weeks increasing evapotranspiration 
rates into the middle of September.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 

$$