647 FXUS21 KWNC 112051 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST December 11 2025 SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level and surface low pressure over the North Pacific bring the potential for a variety of hazardous weather including hazardous cold across southern Alaska, and high winds, heavy precipitation, and high-elevation snow across the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) throughout the week-2 period. Surface low pressure over the Great Plains along with surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. pair to produce potentially hazardous winds over much of the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. Strong surface high pressure over the Yukon is favored to push extremely cold air into southeastern Alaska, potentially below hazardous criteria. HAZARDS High risk of heavy snow for the northern Sierra Nevadas, Klamath, and Oregon Cascades, Fri-Sun, Dec 19-21. Moderate risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath, and northern and central Sierra Nevadas, Fri-Mon, Dec 19-22. Moderate risk of heavy snow for the Northern Rockies, Fri-Mon, Dec 19-22. Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevadas, Fri-Thu, Dec 19-25. Slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern and Central Rockies, the Wasatch, and the northeastern Basin and Range, Fri-Thu, Dec 19-25. High risk of heavy precipitation for coastal portions of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon, Fri-Sun, Dec 19-21. Moderate risk of heavy precipitation of portions of northern California and coastal portions of Oregon and Washington, Fri-Mon, Dec 19-22. Slight risk of heavy precipitation along the entire West Coast, Fri-Thu, Dec 19-25. Moderate risk of high winds for much of northern California, the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, Fri-Sun, Dec 19-21. Slight risk of high winds for much of California, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Northern and Central Plains, Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Fri-Thu, Dec 19-25. Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for southeastern Alaska, Fri-Tue, Dec19-23. Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for much of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Fri-Thu, Dec 19-25. Flooding possible for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY DECEMBER 14 - THURSDAY DECEMBER 18: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 19 - THURSDAY DECEMBER 25: The 0z ECWMF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles depict an amplified mid-level ridge centered over the Bering Sea, with an amplified downstream mid-level trough established over Southeast Alaska. At the surface, this set-up favors persistent high pressure across much of Alaska and the Yukon throughout week-2. Conversely, mean low pressure is favored in the Gulf of Alaska. The pressure gradient between these features brings increased chances for episodes of high winds across much of southern Alaska from the central Aleutian Islands through Southeast Alaska. High winds would be particularly favored in gaps and inlets. Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show enhanced chances of wind speeds exceeding the 85th climatological percentile. Therefore, a slight risk of high winds is posted for most of southern and southeastern Alaska for all of week-2. PETs continue to highlight enhanced chances for temperatures to fall to near hazardous thresholds across portions of south-central, Interior, and Southeast Alaska. As the Bering Sea ridge slowly weakens, the anomalous cold (and associated northerly flow) will gradually expand westward across the state. A moderate risk is posted for Southeast Alaska for Dec 19-23, while a broader slight risk is maintained for much of south-central and southeast Alaska for all of week-2. Temperatures between -20 deg F and -35 deg F are predicted to be widespread across much of inland Alaska, with -40 deg F temperatures indicated by the PETs over the eastern Interior to the north of Fairbanks. Closer to the coast, temperatures are expected to range between 0 and -15 deg F (Anchorage near -10 deg F), while the southern half of Southeast Alaska is predicted to be somewhat milder, with high temperatures about +10 deg F. The combination of very cold weather and high winds along the southern tier of the state increases the threat for heavy freezing spray at times near larger bodies of water. The 0z ECENS, 0z GEFS, and 0z CMCE model solutions depict persistent mid-level troughing over the North Pacific and broad positive 500-hPa height anomalies across much of the southern CONUS, resulting in an enhanced jet stream over the Pacific Northwest. The Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) tool also indicates deep low-level moisture streaming into the West Coast throughout the forecast period, with both the ECMWF and GEFS showing probabilities exceeding 40% for IVT to exceed 250 kg/m/s, especially early in week-2. The PETs and uncalibrated precipitation guidance supports a slight risk of heavy precipitation along all of the West Coast for Dec 19-25. A moderate risk for heavy precipitation is indicated for the Pacific Northwest, Northern and portions of Central California from Dec 19-22. Additionally, a high risk of heavy precipitation is posted for southwestern Oregon and northwestern California, also valid from Dec 19-21. Precipitation amounts of 2 inches are predicted by PET guidance within this broad region of elevated onshore flow from Washington state southward to Central California. Near an inch of precipitation is indicated as far south as the Los Angeles area. This forecasted heavy precipitation, in addition to the antecedent week-1 precipitation, is likely to aggravate flooding issues for the Pacific Northwest, with a flooding possible hazard remaining posted and extended into northwestern California. Continued precipitation accumulations on saturated soils brings the additional risks of landslides and debris flows in steep terrain or burn scars. The incoming moisture associated with this atmospheric river is likely to push well inland, resulting in potentially heavy snow for many mountain ranges across the West. Uncalibrated probabilities from both the ECENS and GEFS for daily accumulations of over 6 inches exceed 40% in some locations especially early in the week, and the GEFS PET for snow water equivalent (SWE) indicates at least a 20% chance of 3-day SWE to exceed the 85th climatological percentile and at least 1 inch for much of the Cascades, Sierras, and Northern and Central Rockies throughout the week. Based on the GEFS PET and uncalibrated daily snowfall totals, a high risk of heavy snow is posted for the Oregon Cascades, Northern Sierra Nevadas, and portions of the Klamath for Dec 19-21. There is a moderate risk of heavy snow for Dec 19-22 for the Cascades, Klamath, and northern and central Sierras, and a slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevadas for all of week-2. Further east, a moderate risk of heavy snow is posted for much of the Northern Rockies for Dec 19-22, and a slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern and Central Rockies, the Wasatch, and northeastern Basin and Range for all of week-2. Along with heavy precipitation and snow, high winds reaching hazardous criteria are also possible associated with this atmospheric river (AR) event. This is well indicated by the ECMWF and GEFS PETs which indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day maximum wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile for much of the CONUS throughout the week. Over the western CONUS, enhanced winds are likely the result of deep troughing and AR over the West Coast, while periods of surface low pressure over the Plains and high pressure over the Southeast U.S. are the features enhancing winds elsewhere. A slight risk of high winds is posted for most of the western CONUS as well as the Northern and Central Plains and Great Lakes regions for all of week-2. The ECMWF PET is especially bullish, with probabilities exceeding 80% for much of the northwestern CONUS early in week-2, further backed by pattern recognition, warranting a moderate risk of high winds for much of the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies for Dec 19-21. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$