030 FXUS21 KWNC 131817 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 13 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) early in the period is forecast to progress east with time. This increases chances for high winds over parts of the West, Plains, and Mississippi Valley. A frontal system is favored to develop over the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and may bring heavy precipitation. Southeast of this system, precipitation is favored to be near to below normal over the next two weeks, increasing risks for rapid onset drought and intensification of drought over the southeastern U.S. HAZARDS Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Great Lakes, Southern and Central Plains, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, Wed-Fri, Apr 22-24. Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, Southwest, Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and Great Lakes, Tue-Fri, Apr 21-24. Possible flooding for much of Wisconsin and Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and eastern Iowa. Rapid Onset Drought risk across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THURSDAY APRIL 16 - MONDAY APRIL 20: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR TUESDAY APRIL 21 - MONDAY APRIL 27: A progressive spring pattern is forecast for week-2 across the CONUS. Mid-level troughing over the West with ridging over the East is favored early in the period. Over time, the trough progresses east and displaces the positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the East. By the end of the period, ensemble model guidance is quite uncertain lending to a zonal forecast in the ensemble means. Mid-level troughing is anticipated to track across the western CONUS at the beginning of week-2, supporting a series of surface lows developing across the region. These lows combined with adjacent surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS results in a tight pressure gradient across the central CONUS. This supports the continued slight risk for high winds over much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin. Given the extremely dry winter experienced over the West, such winds present a potential wildfire hazard. As this system moves into the Plains, surface low development is favored in the lee of the Rockies. This may increase chances for high winds across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes as well. Therefore, a broad slight risk of high winds is posted for Apr 21-24 across these regions. Associated with any surface low development will be a frontal system progressing into the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes by the middle of week-2. Uncertainty is still quite high with differences between the ensemble guidance. However, the Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PET) from the GEFS indicates at least a 20% chance of three day precipitation amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 1 inch across a pretty broad region. Uncalibrated ensemble guidance from both the ECENS and GEFS, along with their machine learning companions, are supportive of a broad slight risk of heavy precipitation. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Southern Plains, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, and Great Lakes, Apr 22-24. Anomalous warmth is still favored for much of the CONUS during week-2, with the greatest likelihood across the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS. This warmth combined with antecedent and anticipated dry conditions increases the likelihood of Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) across parts of the region. A risk of ROD is posted for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Additionally these conditions may also be conducive to enhanced wildfire risk across the southeastern CONUS, where there are currently active fires and the National Interagency Fire Center shows a moderate risk of wildfires across this region at the end of week-1. Across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan snowpack is still melting out. Additionally, over the last two weeks the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley regions have seen over 200% of normal precipitation. This has saturated soils and already lead to widespread river flooding, thus any additional water in the river systems will not be easily accommodated. Much of the Great Lakes is favored for above-normal precipitation. A flooding possible hazard is posted for most of Michigan, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and eastern Iowa where the risk of additional precipitation early in week-2 and late week-1 leads to the greatest risk of new or renewed flooding. However, the threat of flooding is not limited to these areas alone, as lingering snow remains on the ground over portions of the High Plains as well. No hazard is issued for the Red River of the North or other watercourses in the region, although river rises are likely as snow melts and localized flooding may occur. No hazards are issued over Alaska, but flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice during river ice breakup season. The colder temperatures in the Week 2 Outlook increase the chances of delayed river breakup in Alaska and increase the chances of ice jam flooding. Check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center (https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap) for the latest conditions or advisories. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt $$