032 FXUS21 KWNC 081815 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 08 2026 SYNOPSIS: Model guidance favors surface low pressure development over the Great Plains and active weather early in week-2, increasing the potential of heavy precipitation for portions of the Great Plains, and the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, as well as high winds for much of the central and western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). HAZARDS Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Thu-Sat, Apr 16-18. Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, Thu-Mon, Apr 16-20. Flooding possible for much of Wisconsin and Michigan. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SATURDAY APRIL 11 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 15: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR THURSDAY APRIL 16 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 22: Todays model solutions from the 0z ECENS and GEFS depict a second round of lee cyclogenesis over the Central Plains at the outset of week-2 following an initial system in week-1, with heavy precipitation developing ahead of a surface low. The week-1 system is favored to move quickly, accompanied by a shortwave upper-level trough, while the system to form in week-2 will be slower to move eastward with ridge-building favored over the Southeast. Uncalibrated probabilities from the ECENS indicate a broad area centered on the Middle Mississippi with at least a 40% chance of 3-day precipitation accumulation exceeding 1 inch and even some 20% chances of exceeding 2 inches, and while the GEFS is less bullish, it also exceeds the 1 inch threshold for portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show a similar picture, with a bullish ECENS broad-brushing at least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation exceeding the 85th climatological percentile, while the GEFS only highlights the Southern Plains at the above threshold. Model spread has been high regarding precipitation potential for the last several days, but reasonably consistent at least in terms of relative signal, and seasonality and pattern recognition further support leaning towards the bullish scenario. Therefore a slight risk of heavy precipitation is continued for portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, valid Apr 16-20. Model solutions have upped their signal with regard to enhanced winds associated with this system. Ensemble mean wind speeds approach or exceed 20mph over portions of the Four Corners region and spreading eastward into the Great Plains throughout week-2, although the signal begins to drop off towards the end of the forecast period. Therefore a slight risk of high winds is posted for much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, valid Apr 16-20. Given the extremely dry winter experienced over the West such winds present a potential wildfire hazard. Abundant snowpack over portions of northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula is beginning to melt. Additionally, over the last week the Great Lakes region has reported precipitation accumulations exceeding 2 inches in most locations. This has saturated soils and already lead to widespread river flooding, thus any additional water in the river systems will not be easily accommodated. Much of the Great Lakes is favored for above-normal precipitation and temperatures, accelerating snow melt and exacerbating the flooding potential. A flooding possible hazard is posted for most of Michigan and Wisconsin, where the confluence of these parameters is greatest. However, the threat of flooding is not limited to these areas alone, as lingering snow remains on the ground over portions of the High Plains as well. No hazard is issued for the Red River of the North or other watercourses in the region, although river rises are likely as snow melts off and localized flooding may occur. No hazards are issued over Alaska, but flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice during river ice breakup season. Check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions or advisories. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$