670 FXUS21 KWNC 011847 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT May 01 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), associated with a strong cold front. Heavy precipitation is favored ahead of and along this cold front as it moves across the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states early in week-2. Much below-normal temperatures and gusty winds are favored in the wake of the front. Freezing and near-freezing conditions are possible in some areas, potentially damaging early spring blooms. HAZARDS Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, Sat, May 9. Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures from the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley eastward across the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, Sat-Sun, May 9-10. Moderate risk of high winds for upper parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Lower Great Lakes region, Appalachians, and East Coast as far south as Georgia, Sat-Sun, May 9-10. Slight risk of high winds for the eastern quarter of the CONUS, and along most of the Gulf Coast, Sat-Mon, May 9-11. Slight risk of high winds over the south-central Great Basin, Sat-Tue, May 9-12. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Appalachians, East Coast and Gulf Coast states, Sat-Mon, May 9-11. Slight risk of extreme heat for the Desert Southwest, Sat-Thu, May 9-14. Slight risk of extreme heat for central and southern Florida, Sat-Tue, May 9-12. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR MONDAY MAY 04 - FRIDAY MAY 08: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SATURDAY MAY 09 - FRIDAY MAY 15: There continues to be good model agreement indicating amplified troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging upstream across the West from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2. The center of the mid-level low is anticipated to be over eastern Canada by the beginning of the period. The signal for heavy precipitation has increased since yesterday over the Appalachians, Eastern Seaboard, and Gulf Coast states, warranting a slight risk of heavy precipitation from May 9-11. Uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS guidance favors 1.0-1.5 inches (locally 2 inches) within this 3-day period as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Strong thunderstorms are also expected over parts of eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley as the western portion of the cold front approaches the Gulf Coast. Cold signals comparable to yesterday favor the southward movement of relatively cold surface high pressure across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. Therefore, a moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures is designated for parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 9. The ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) shows a 30-40% chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile climatologically and at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures dropping below 38 degrees F across this region, with freezing temperatures possible across the northern portions. The ECENS PET is a reasonable compromise between the colder CANM PET and the milder GEFS PET. A broader area of slight risk is highlighted across the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley eastward across the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 9-10, where there is at least a 20% chance of temperatures reaching these thresholds. Any residual cold with freezing or near freezing temperatures may threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation, particularly in areas that have experienced early growth due to antecedent warmth during April. A series of surface lows and trailing fronts are anticipated to track across the north-central and northeastern CONUS. These features may bring gusty conditions to parts of the East. A moderate risk of high winds is designated for upper parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Lower Great Lakes region, Appalachians, and East Coast as far south as Georgia, May 9-10, where the ECENS PET shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile, with additional support from uncalibrated guidance indicating elevated chances of wind gusts exceeding 20 mph (35 mph locally). A broader area is highlighted with a slight risk across the eastern quarter of the CONUS and along the Gulf Coast, May 9-11. Windy conditions combined with anticipated cold temperatures could support lower wind chill temperatures in some areas. With ongoing drought conditions and near to above normal temperatures favored for Florida and southern portions of Georgia and enhanced winds anticipated, there may be increased wildfire risk across these areas which already are experiencing active wildfires. The National Interagency Fire Center indicates a moderate risk of significant fire potential at the end of week-1 in central and southern Florida, with a mitigated risk farther north due to the expectation of brief and localized rainfall. A slight risk of high winds is also designated for south-central portions of the Great Basin, May 9-12. Typically during the springtime, any wind speed maxima associated with a substantial mid-level trough may mix down to the very warm surface, resulting in higher wind gusts. This is supported by the GEFS and ECENS PETs for wind speeds of at least 20-25 mph. South of the mid-level trough across much of the East, positive mid-level heights are possible across central and southern Florida, supporting increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the region. A slight risk of extreme heat is designated for this area, May 9-12, where GEFS and CANM maximum air temperatures have at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th percentile and 90 degrees F. Antecedent dry conditions may support higher temperatures. This hazard is further supported by indications of CPC heat tools. There is good agreement among models indicating more amplified ridging across the West throughout much of week-2, translating to increased signals for anomalous warmth across the region. A slight risk of excessive heat is highlighted for the Desert Southwest throughout most of week-2, where PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile and 95 degrees F (100 degrees F locally). HeatRisk tools further indicate at least a moderate level of impact in this region. Over Alaska, models indicate possible surface low formation over the Gulf of Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern portions of the state. However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. Additionally, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories. FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa $$