753 FXUS21 KWNC 231811 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT September 23 2026 SYNOPSIS: A series of surface lows and accompanying fronts may bring periods of unsettled weather to parts of the eastern U.S. during week-2. There may be episodes of enhanced moist flow to parts of the Southeastern U.S., with the greatest likelihood of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. Surface low pressure along the West Coast may bring episodic high winds to coastal California and southwest Oregon. Surface low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska supports a slight risk of high winds to coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska at the beginning of week-2, with enhanced precipitation possible across some areas. HAZARDS Slight risk of periods of heavy precipitation for parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula, Thu-Mon, Oct 1-Oct 5. Slight risk of high winds for parts of the California and southwestern Oregon coast, Thu-Sat, Oct 1-3. Slight risk of episodic high winds across coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Fri-Sun, Oct 2-4. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 26 - WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 01 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 07: A more amplified pattern is favored by multiple model ensemble means compared to yesterday. Overall, mid-level troughs are anticipated across the West Coast and eastern CONUS at the onset of week-2, retrograding at the beginning of the period before propagating eastward by mid week-2. There is a fair amount of disagreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of the trough over the east, translating to differences in the surface pattern and how surface lows and fronts will impact the eastern CONUS. The ECENS and CMCE are more amplified than the GEFS, supporting a wetter solution across the East at the start of the period. Multiple models indicate surface high pressure building across much of the East as an initial front ahead of the mid-level trough moves off the coast, which would lead to drier conditions across the region. Periods of southerly moist flow from the Gulf may still bring episodes of localized heavy rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida, therefore a slight risk of heavy precipitation is designated for these areas Oct 1-5. The reduction in coverage compared to yesterday is due to much of the rainfall timing out by week-2 with the greatest risk occurring at the end of week-1. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) continue to show broad coverage across the southeastern U.S. with possible 3-day accumulations exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch, but uncalibrated guidance generally favors less widespread heavy rainfall. Rainfall would be beneficial in areas where antecedent conditions have been dry. Some areas of heavy rain including potential thunderstorms are possible in these areas, potentially triggering isolated flash flooding, although no particular area appears vulnerable to widespread and persistent flood conditions. Potential surface low formation over Baja California and along the West Coast (which may be enhanced by tropical cyclones nearing Baja California) combined with adjacent surface high pressure near or just offshore the West Coast, may result in a tight pressure gradient across portions of the West Coast. This pattern may bring in periods of enhanced wind speeds across coastal portions of California and southwest Oregon, thus a slight risk of episodic high winds is designated for these areas, Oct 1-3 when the pattern looks most favorable supporting gusty conditions. This is supported by the PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25 mph (35 mph locally) and model ensembles showing increased chances of wind gusts exceeding 34 knots (about 40 mph) in the region. Mid-level troughing is expected to be centered over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska throughout week-2, supporting surface low formation in the Gulf of Alaska. This surface low may bring gusty conditions to southern portions of the state. Due to good day to day model consistency and agreement among models, but with some uncertainty as to whether wind speeds will exceed hazard thresholds, a slight risk of episodic high winds is posted for coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Oct 2-4. The PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of wind speeds reaching the 85th percentile and 40 mph, further supported by recent deterministic guidance showing these gusty conditions. Localized enhanced heavy precipitation is also possible across some of these areas although totals do not reach hazardous criteria at this time. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$