759 FXUS21 KWNC 121802 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT June 12 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure predicted over the Carolinas and Florida increases chances for extreme heat early and throughout the period respectively. Mid-level high pressure is then forecast to build into the Great Plains and West with time, increasing chances for extreme heat in parts of the Central and Southern Plains by the middle and end of week-2. A stationary surface front across the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley brings elevated chances for heavy precipitation. Early in the period, strong winds are possible across parts of the Rockies and Great Plains. HAZARDS Moderate risk of extreme heat for the central and southern Florida Peninsula, Sat-Tue, Jun 20-23. Slight risk of extreme heat for the entire Florida Peninsula, Sat-Fri, Jun 20-26. Slight risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, Sat-Mon, Jun 20-22. Slight risk of extreme heat for much of the Southern Plains and Central Plains, Mon-Fri, Jun 22-26. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent areas, Sat-Mon, Jun 20-22. Slight risk of high winds from the central and southern High Plains westward across much of the Rockies, and central and southern portions of the Great Basin, Sat-Mon, Jun 20-22. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR MONDAY JUNE 15 - FRIDAY JUNE 19: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SATURDAY JUNE 20 - FRIDAY JUNE 26: Over the Southeast and Gulf Coast subtropical ridging is anticipated to persist through much of the week-2 period. This feature is favored to contribute towards areas of extreme heat. Bias-corrected GEFS and ECENS Heat Index guidance for week-2 depicts values near or above 105 deg F across both of these regions. The National Blend of Models (NBM) predicts near-record or record high nighttime minimum temperatures across much of the Florida Peninsula during this time, ranging from about 75-85 deg F. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Probabilistic HeatRisk tool highlights elevated chances of major HeatRisk across the region. A moderate risk of extreme heat is designated for the central and southern Florida Peninsula, Jun 20-23, and a slight risk of extreme heat is posted for the entire Florida Peninsula throughout the duration of week-2. A second slight risk area is depicted for much of the Southeast Georgia and Coastal Carolinas, Jun 20-22 with mid-level troughing anticipated to moderate temperatures by the second half of week-2. Another area of favored extreme heat includes the Great Plains from southern Nebraska to the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, coincident with the forecast expansion of the subtropical ridge into these areas. This represents an increase in spatial coverage of extreme heat relative to yesterday. Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) guidance and week-2 heat index guidance indicate actual air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in these areas, and heat index values at or above 105 deg F, due to dew point temperatures well up into the 60s and low 70s. Dynamical model guidance indicates the ridge over the Southern and Central Plains is more likely to expand westward across the Rockies and into the Intermountain West rather than amplify northward across the Northern Plains. Tools have trended in this direction today with the mid-level ridge axis further West relative to yesterday. Therefore, a slight risk of extreme heat is posted for Jun 22-26 from the Rio Grande into the central High Plains. During week-2, a stationary front is forecast across parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. This may drive thunderstorm clusters (Mesoscale Convective System) forecast to move across the central and east-central CONUS. A slight risk of above-normal precipitation is most warranted from Jun 20-22 over a broad portion of the east-central CONUS, where PET guidance shows precipitation values in excess of the 85th percentile of the historical distribution and greater than 1-inch. The ECENS and GEFS PETs are in good agreement today on the predicted location of the heaviest precipitation. Enhanced low-level Gulf moisture streaming northward from the Gulf Coast could provide the fuel necessary for precipitation and thunderstorm activity. Though no specific flooding areas are designated on today's map, any slow-moving or stalled thunderstorms could result in localized flooding and potentially hazardous conditions. A series of surface lows across the West early in week-2 support a slight risk of periods of high winds for parts of the Interior West, Rockies, and High Plains, Jun 20-22. The ECENS PET indicates at least a 20% chance of many of these areas exceeding the 85th percentile and uncalibrated ECENS and GEFS ensembles showing enhanced probabilities of wind gusts ranging from 20-35 mph, locally greater. Gusty wind speeds may enhance wildfire risk especially across parts of the Four Corners region and the Southwest, where the National Interagency Fire Center indicates a moderate risk of significant fire potential by the end of week-1 and where there are currently active fires. FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt $$