036 FXUS21 KWNC 051916 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT October 05 2026 SYNOPSIS: A stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast, along with potentially deep tropical moisture and possible surface low formation near or along the Southeast coast, is favored to continue increased chances of episodic heavy rainfall from the end of week-1 into week-2, across portions of Florida, the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and the Southeast, including parts of the Carolinas. Surface low pressure over the Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, and the Gulf of Alaska, in addition to remnants of recurving typhoons in the West Pacific, may impact portions of southern Alaska. There is an increased likelihood of episodic high winds across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, southcentral, and southeastern Alaska throughout week-2 as well as heavy precipitation for parts of southcentral and southeastern Alaska during the middle of the period. HAZARDS Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Gulf Coast, and Southeast including the Carolinas, Tue-Wed, Oct 13-14. Slight risk of periods of high winds for most of the Gulf Coast, Tue-Sat, Oct 13-17. Moderate risk of periods of high winds across south-central and southeastern Alaska, Tue-Sat, Oct 13-17. Slight risk of high winds across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, southcentral, and southeastern Alaska, Tue-Sat, Oct 13-17. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of southcentral and southeastern Alaska, Thu-Sat, Oct 15-17. Flooding possible for much of the eastern and central Gulf Coast region, including northern and central Florida. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 08 - MONDAY OCTOBER 12: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 13 - MONDAY OCTOBER 19: In general, multiple model ensemble means indicate a more amplified 500 hPa pattern compared to yesterday, although with notable disagreement among them regarding the pattern. The ECENS, CMCE, and GEFS-AI favor surface mid-level troughing over the southwestern CONUS propagating eastward to the eastern CONUS throughout week-2, whereas the GEFS indicates a more persistent amplified ridge (trough) across the West (East). There is good agreement, however, regarding amplified troughing across the northeastern Pacific supporting an active period of weather for southern Alaska. A stationary front is anticipated to extend along coastal portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern CONUS from the end of week-1 into week-2. Additionally, potentially enhanced moisture to these regions associated with remnants of possible tropical activity during week-1 could enhance rainfall in these areas. The National Hurricane Center as of 2pm EDT has a 80% (high) chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7-days over the Bay of Campeche. A slight risk of lingering heavy precipitation from the end of week-1 into week-2 is designated for Florida, central and eastern Gulf Coast, and Southeast including the Carolinas, Oct 13-14. The GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile climatologically and one inch across the highlighted region, further supported by daily and 3-day accumulated uncalibrated precipitation, although there is uncertainty regarding how much of the heaviest rainfall remains offshore. Anticipated heavy rainfall during week-2 and strong onshore flow, combined with expected enhanced rainfall totals from week-1 (ranging from 3-7+ inches near the coast), could lead to widespread potential for urban and flash flooding across the southeastern CONUS. A possible flooding hazard remains valid for much of the Gulf Coast region including northern and central Florida. Caution is highly advised with regard to flooded roads and waterways and if widespread flooding is occurring in your area, unnecessary travel is strongly discouraged. An amplified 500-hPa trough over the Bering Sea and western Alaska is likely to promote a series of low pressure systems that track from the Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. Additionally, an active pattern of typhoons in the western Pacific is anticipated to continue into week-2, which often recurve and may enhance wind speeds and precipitation, with the impact of high winds being of greatest concern. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of episodic high winds is posted for south-central and southeastern Alaska, Oct 13-17, with a broader slight risk (20-40% chance) across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal portions of southwestern, southcentral, and southeastern Alaska for the same valid period. PETs indicate enhanced probabilities of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 40 mph in the highlighted risk areas, further supported by ensembles showing increased chances of wind gusts exceeding 50 knots (57 mph). A slight risk of heavy precipitation is designated for parts of southcentral and southeastern Alaska for the middle of week-2 (Oct 15-17) when and where models indicate the greatest likelihood of heavy precipitation, with PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation exceeding the 85th percentile and uncalibrated daily totals reaching 2 inches or greater. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$