669 FXUS21 KWNC 211900 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST February 21 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure forecasted over Alaska favors hazardous cold temperatures across most of the state during week-2. A dwindling onshore flow pattern predicted across portions of the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) results in no hazards being posted today across that region. Over the Central and Eastern CONUS, there is significant disagreement in model details regarding the passage of several low pressure areas, precluding any specific hazards except for a broad wind hazard from the south-central states to the northeastern CONUS at the start of week-2. HAZARDS Moderate risk of hazardous cold for southwestern Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 1-2. Slight risk of hazardous cold for nearly all of Alaska, Sun-Sat, Mar 1-7. Slight risk of high winds for most of the southern coast of Alaska, Sun-Sat, Mar 1-7. Slight risk of high winds from south-central portions of the CONUS northeastward to the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Upper Mid-Atlantic, Sun, Mar 1. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SUNDAY MARCH 01 - SATURDAY MARCH 07: Mid-level high pressure over eastern Siberia and the western Bering Sea and mid-level low pressure over Alaska favor extremely cold temperatures over Alaska during week-2. With the exception of the Aleutians, a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted for Alaska, valid for all of week-2. Moderating temperatures may occur over southern Southeast Alaska late in week-2. A moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures is indicated for the southwestern Mainland, most of the Alaska Peninsula, and parts of south-central Alaska on Mar 1-2. This widespread, unseasonably cold air mass is consistent with the Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) for temperature, and uncalibrated temperatures from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE models. The PETs favors surface temperatures colder than -20 deg F from the Arctic Coast southward to the Alaska Range, and the -40 deg F threshold may be exceeded over far northern and far eastern portions of the Interior early in the period. Temperatures of -5 to -10 deg F are predicted for places like St. Lawrence Island and Anchorage. For nearly all areas north of an approximate line from Kodiak to Skagway, temperatures are expected to be <0 deg F. Surface low pressure over the northern Gulf of Alaska and a ridge of surface high pressure over Alaska favors a slight risk of high winds (>85th climatological percentile and 40 knots) over most of the southern coast of Alaska, for the duration of week-2. This has support from 0z GEFS and 0z ECENS 10-meter wind gust predictions, and the respective wind PETs. Over the western CONUS, all weather-related hazards have been dropped today, as rain, snow, and wind variables are now forecast to fall below hazardous thresholds. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) guidance from the ECENS and GEFS shows no significant precipitation signal at the 250 kg/m/sec threshold across the Pacific Northwest or Northern California, a value commonly considered (among other tools) to justify a heavy precipitation hazard. However, at the lower 150 kg/m/sec threshold, there is a widespread, coherent precipitation signal indicated over the Eastern Pacific which could reach the West Coast during the middle and latter portions of week-2. If this precipitation signal continues to be robust, as well as reach the 250 kg/m/sec threshold tomorrow or Monday, a new round of heavy precipitation, heavy snow, and high wind hazards may need to be posted. Over the eastern CONUS, there are significant inter-model differences in the distribution, timing, and magnitude of heavy precipitation during all but the very start of week-2 period. On Day 8 (Mar 1), northern stream energy moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast is expected to interact with a low pressure system developing over the south-central Plains. In addition, clockwise flow around a surface high pressure system in the East is forecast to steer Gulf moisture across the south-central states, Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Upper Mid-Atlantic. Though the models (GEFS/ECENS PETs and uncalibrated precipitation fields) are having difficulty resolving the details of the forecasted precipitation pattern, they are in better agreement on a slight risk of hazardous wind (>85th climatological percentile and 20-25 knots) across these areas on Mar 1. This is also consistent with the expected pressure gradient fields from the models around the Week-1/Week-2 interface period. FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa $$