811 FXUS21 KWNC 011826 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT October 01 2026 SYNOPSIS: A stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast, along with deep tropical moisture is favored to produce widespread heavy and potentially hazardous precipitation and high winds across the region throughout week-2, particularly along the eastern Gulf Coast early in the forecast period. Low pressure at the surface and mid-levels is favored to transit from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska, bringing the potential for high winds and heavy precipitation for much of the southern and southeastern coast of the state. HAZARDS Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the eastern Gulf Coast as well as much of northern and central Florida, Fri-Sun, Oct 9-11. Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for Florida and coastal portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast including the coastal Carolinas, Fri-Thu, Oct 9-15. Slight risk of high winds for coastal portions of the Gulf Coast, Fri-Thu, Oct 9-15. Moderate risk of high winds for coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Fri-Sun, Oct 9-11. Slight risk of high winds across coastal portions of southwestern, south-central and southeastern Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Aleutians, Fri-Tue, Oct 9-13. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Fri-Tue, Oct 9-13. Flooding possible for much of the eastern Gulf Coast, and northern and central Florida. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 04 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 08: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 09 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 15: The GEFS and ECENS continue to be in good agreement, indicating amplifying 500-hPa ridging (troughing) over western (eastern) North America during early October. A stationary front is anticipated to stretch from the Gulf Coast to potentially near or along the coastal Southeast south of the mid-level troughing over the East. This pattern supports a prolonged period of a slight risk (20-40% chance) of episodic heavy rainfall for much of the Gulf Coast, Florida, and along the southeastern coast up to the Outer Banks throughout week-2. The GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) are in good agreement indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch across the designated hazard area. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of heavy precipitation is designated for the eastern Gulf Coast, northern and central Florida valid Oct 9-11, where the ECENS and GEFS PETs have both increased coverage of at least a 40% chance of exceeding accumulated totals of 1 to 1.5 inches in 3-days, further supported by uncalibrated guidance. Furthermore, multiple models are indicating the potential for tropical disturbances originating in the Bay of Campeche that would enhance onshore flow, further enhancing heavy rain. Additionally this pattern with surface lows near or along the Gulf Coast may also bring enhanced wind speeds to the region, supporting a slight risk of episodic high winds or the Gulf Coast. Multiple PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25 mph further supported by ensembles indicating a 20 to 30% chance of wind gusts exceeding 34 knots (about 39 mph). Anticipated heavy rainfall and strong onshore flow, combined with expected enhanced rainfall totals from week-1, could lead to widespread potential for urban and flash flooding across the eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore a flooding possible hazard is designated for the affected region, coinciding with the moderate risk of heavy precipitation highlighted above. A highly amplified 500-hPa trough over the northeast Pacific is likely to promote a series of low pressure systems that track from the Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. The greatest concern regarding impacts would be for high winds, as depending on the track and evolution of the remnants of tropical disturbances in the East Pacific could lead to increased risk of high winds for southern Alaska. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of high winds is designated for coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska, Oct 9-11, based on where the ECENS PET of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 40 mph, model guidance of increased probabilities of 10m wind gusts exceeding 50 knots (about 57 mph), and good day to day model consistency regarding the pattern. A broader area of slight risk of high winds is posted for coastal portions of southwestern, south-central and southeastern Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Aleutians for Oct 9-13, where the GEFS and ECENS PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile further supported by uncalibrated guidance indicating elevated probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 50 knots. Based on the enhanced onshore flow associated with these low pressure systems, and support from the ECENS and GEFS PETs (20% chance of 3-day precipitation amounts > 85th percentile and 2-3 inches), a slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation is maintained from the Kenai Peninsula to southeastern Alaska, also valid Oct 9-13. Recent deterministic models indicate the potential for daily totals exceeding 2-3 inches. Above-normal temperatures are very likely across the western CONUS under building ridging. Model guidance suggests that during the week-1 period high temperatures may reach impactful levels, and while very anomalously warm temperatures are likely well into the first half of October, at this time forecast guidance shows little indication of the potential for daytime temperatures to reach hazardous criteria during the week-2 period, so no hazard is issued at this time. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$