121 FXUS21 KWNC 091855 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 09 2026 SYNOPSIS: Multiple models indicate stronger mid-level high pressure across the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) compared to yesterday from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2. This pattern supports increased chances of much above normal temperatures across parts of the southeastern CONUS continuing from the end of week-1 into the start of week-2. Near record high temperatures are possible in some of these areas, with temperatures near or exceeding 90 deg F, which may be the first time of the season for some locations. Antecedent and anticipated dry conditions combined with warm temperatures increases the likelihood for Rapid Onset Drought across parts of the Southeast. Across the central CONUS, surface low pressure is anticipated to develop over the region early in week-2, increasing the potential of heavy precipitation for portions of the Great Plains, and the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. Mid-level low pressure over the western CONUS may support episodes of high wind speeds across the West. HAZARDS Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Sat, Apr 17-18. Slight risk of much above normal temperatures across portions of the southeastern CONUS and Lower Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Apr 17-18. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Fri-Sat, Apr 17-18. Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, Fri-Tue, Apr 17-21. Possible flooding for much of Wisconsin and Michigan. Rapid Onset Drought risk across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY APRIL 12 - THURSDAY APRIL 16: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY APRIL 17 - THURSDAY APRIL 23: Multiple model ensembles indicate stronger ridging extending farther south across the eastern, central, and southwestern CONUS compared to yesterday from the end of week-1 into week-2. This translates to model guidance and associated tools increasing chances for anomalous warmth across many of these areas. Peak temperatures are anticipated mid to late week-1 and extending into the beginning of week-2. A moderate risk of much above normal temperatures is designated for portions of the Southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Apr 17-18. There is good agreement among the Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicating this anomalous warmth signal. The ECENS (GEFS) PET shows at least a 60% (40%) chance across these regions of temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile climatologically, with temperatures near or exceeding 90 deg F. The National Blend of Models shows some of these risk areas nearing record temperatures for this time of year. A broader area of slight risk is highlighted across portions of the southeastern CONUS into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the same period. Aforementioned warm temperatures across the southeastern CONUS combined with antecedent and anticipated dry conditions increases the likelihood of Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) across parts of the region. A risk of ROD is posted for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Additionally these conditions may also be conducive to enhanced wildfire risk across the southeastern CONUS, where there are currently active fires and the National Interagency Fire Center shows a moderate risk of wildfires across this region at the end of week-1. Multiple model solutions continue to depict lee cyclogenesis ahead of mid-level troughing across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. There is good agreement between the GEFS and ECENS PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation at the beginning of week-2 exceeding the 85th percentile compared to normal and one inch. Uncalibrated guidance indicates the timing to be focused on Apr 17 and 18, thus a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for Apr 17-18. Current soil conditions are not anticipated to favor widespread flooding in the heavy precipitation risk area, although localized flash flooding is possible with the potential of thunderstorms. Mid-level troughing is anticipated to track across the western CONUS, supporting a series of surface lows developing across the region. These lows combined with adjacent surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS results in a tight pressure gradient across the central CONUS. This supports the continued slight risk for high winds over much of the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, Apr 17-21. Given the extremely dry winter experienced over the West such winds present a potential wildfire hazard. Abundant snowpack over portions of northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula is beginning to melt. Additionally, over the last week the Great Lakes region has reported precipitation accumulations exceeding 2 inches in most locations. This has saturated soils and already lead to widespread river flooding, thus any additional water in the river systems will not be easily accommodated. Much of the Great Lakes is favored for above-normal precipitation and temperatures, accelerating snow melt and exacerbating the flooding potential. A flooding possible hazard is posted for most of Michigan and Wisconsin, where the confluence of these parameters is greatest. However, the threat of flooding is not limited to these areas alone, as lingering snow remains on the ground over portions of the High Plains as well. No hazard is issued for the Red River of the North or other watercourses in the region, although river rises are likely as snow melts and localized flooding may occur. No hazards are issued over Alaska, but flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice during river ice breakup season. Check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center (https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap) for the latest conditions or advisories. Multiple ensemble members indicate possible Kona Lows forming northwest of Hawaii most likely toward the latter part of week-2. Above normal precipitation is favored for the state. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$