435 FXUS21 KWNC 291753 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT April 29 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), bringing anomalously cold air and gusty winds to much of the region. There are increased chances for much below normal temperatures with freezing and near freezing conditions possible in some areas, potentially damaging early spring blooms. A series of surface lows and trailing fronts may bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Deep South and eastern Texas at the beginning of week-2. HAZARDS Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, Thu-Sun, May 7-10. Slight risk of high winds for much of the eastern U.S., Thu-Sat, May 7-9. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeastern U.S., Thu-Sat, May 7-9. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SATURDAY MAY 02 - WEDNESDAY MAY 06: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR THURSDAY MAY 07 - WEDNESDAY MAY 13: Multiple models continue to indicate amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern CONUS weakening towards the end of week-2. The center of the mid-level low is anticipated to start off centered over Ontario. With this feature being more amplified and expansive compared to yesterday in the models, the signals for cold are expanded slightly westward into the north-central CONUS. Therefore slight risk of much below normal temperatures includes the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 7-10, with the expectation of this hazard slowly shifting eastward with time associated with the trough moving eastward. In the highlighted risk area both the GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extreme Tools (PETs) indicate at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile climatologically and uncalibrated guidance shows temperatures dropping below 38 degrees F (freezing temperatures across the northern portions). Any residual cold with freezing or near freezing temperatures may threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation, particularly in areas that have experienced early growth due to antecedent warmth during April. Surface low pressure and a trailing front ahead of the mid-level trough may support lingering heavy precipitation across southern portions of the East, with the majority of the heaviest precipitation anticipated to occur at the end of week-1. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is designated for portions of eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeastern U.S., May 7-9, where there is good agreement among the PETs indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch. Thunderstorms are possible across this region and adjacent areas of where this risk is highlighted, which could lead to localized flooding. A slight risk of high winds remains highlighted across much of the eastern CONUS, May 7-9 associated with these surface lows and fronts. With ongoing drought conditions and above near to above normal temperatures favored for Florida and southern portions of Georgia and enhanced winds anticipated, there may be increased wildfire risk across these areas which already are experiencing active wildfires. Any precipitation occurring in the region may be brief and localized which may not offset the enhanced potential for wildfires. Over Alaska, models indicate possible surface low formation over the Gulf of Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern portions of the state. However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. Additionally, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$