782 FXUS21 KWNC 051930 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST February 05 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure is forecast to dig into the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the week-2 period. This will bring chances for unsettled weather in the form of rain, snow and wind sinking south along the West Coast and the Rocky Mountains throughout week-2. In the East, moist southerly flow from the Gulf of America brings increased chances for heavy precipitation to portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys, as well as heavy snow for portions of New England. HAZARDS Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Southern Appalachians, Fri-Sun, Feb 13-15. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, Fri-Thu, Feb 13-19. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of central and southern California, Sun-Thu, Feb 15-19. Slight risk of heavy snow for the northern Sierra Nevada and Cascades, Fri-Thu, Feb 13-19. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Sierra Nevada, Sun-Thu, Feb 15-19. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Northern Rockies, Fri-Thu, Feb 13-19. Slight risk of heavy snow for the Wasatch Range and portions of the Central and Southern Rockies, Sun-Thu, Feb 15-19. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Northeast U.S., Fri-Sun, Feb 13-15 Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, Fri-Thu, Feb 13-19. Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of central and southern California, Sun-Thu, Feb 15-19. Slight risk of episodic high winds for western portions of the Great Plains, Fri-Thu, Feb 13-19. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 08 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 13 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19: Southerly return flow from the Gulf of America is expected to bring increased warmth and moisture into portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys during the middle of the period. Ensembles from the GEFS and ECENS indicate elevated chances of 3-day precipitation amounts exceeding 1 inch. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) from the ECMWF and GEFS also indicate a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation to exceed the 85th climatological percentile and at least 1 inch early in week-2. This precipitation event may end up being beneficial to the region nevertheless a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for Feb 13-15. Some of this energy may induce coastal low pressure development along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Guidance from the ECENS based tools indicate elevated chances of snow across the interior of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow exceeding 40% for much of New England. While not as bullish, uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day snow accumulation to exceed 4 inches. Given consistent guidance from the ECMWF and increasing signal from the GEFS, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for northern New England for Feb 13-15. In the West a welcome transition to a wetter pattern appears to be on tap. At the end of week-1, an initial mid-level trough is forecast to move through. A stronger, longer duration trough is then forecast to dig into the West Coast, likely with multiple shortwaves embedded within. PETs from the GEFS and ECENS indicate enhanced chances of 3 day precipitation amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 2 inches across the Pacific Northwest. Uncalibrated forecast guidance also indicates elevated chances of precipitation exceeding 2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. The chances for heavy snow and precipitation then progress southward through the period bringing elevated chances to central and southern California and the remainder of the Sierra Nevada by the middle of week-2. As this moisture moves inland, heavy snow is also possible for the higher elevations of the Interior West. The highest chances for hazardous snow will expand from the northern Rockies towards the south through the middle of week-2. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Cascades and Sierra-Nevada for Feb 13-19, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for lower elevations west of the mountains in the Pacific Northwest and northern California, also for Feb 13-19. A corresponding slight risk of high winds is posted for the coastal regions of the same region for Feb 13-19. Further south across the remainder of the Sierra Nevada, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for Feb 15-19. A slight risk of heavy precipitation and corresponding coastal high wind risk for Feb 15-19 for central and southern California. Finally, in a similar progression a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for much of the Northern Rockies valid for all of week-2, while a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Wasatch and much of the Central and Southern Rockies for Feb 15-19. The deterministic ECMWF, CMC, and GFS models all show the potential for periodic strong winds across the Front Range and High Plains. The models are not in agreement on the specifics of location and timing, but all show periods of enhanced high wind risk from either a tight pressure gradient and upsloping winds from the east, or downsloping chinook winds from the west. Affected locations, if any, will vary with time, but with the models inconsistent in forecasting exactly which locations will be affected on which days, the whole area is broad-brushed with a slight risk of high winds that continues through week-2. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$