458 FXUS21 KWNC 061929 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST February 06 2026 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure is forecast to dig into the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the week-2 period. This will bring increased chances for unsettled weather in the form of rain, snow and wind expanding south along the West Coast and the Rocky Mountains for much of week-2. In the East, an exiting surface low pressure system over the Northeast U.S. may bring potentially heavy snow for portions of New England at the beginning of week-2. HAZARDS Moderate risk of heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Sat-Mon, Feb 14-16. Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevadas, Sat-Wed, Feb 14-18. Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the Rocky Mountains and higher elevations of the Great Basin, Sat-Wed, Feb 14-18. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Northeast U.S., Sat-Sun, Feb 14-15. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Sat-Wed, Feb 14-18. Slight risk of episodic high winds along the West Coast from the mouth of the Columbia River to the Santa Barbara Channel, Sat-Wed, Feb 14-18. Slight risk of episodic high winds for the eastern Great Basin, Rocky Mountains, and western portions of the Great Plains, Sat-Fri, Feb 14-20. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 09 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 13: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20: At the outset of week-2 multiple model ensembles depict a surface low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes, having moved along the Eastern Seaboard during week-1. While most of the impact from this system is now likely prior to week-2, model guidance continues to indicate a lingering potential for heavy snow over portions of New England. The ECENS based tools indicate elevated chances of snow across the interior of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow exceeding 40% for much of New England. While not as bullish, uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day snow accumulation to exceed 4 inches, therefore a slight risk of heavy snow remains posted for northern New England for Feb 14-15. In the West a welcome transition to a wetter pattern appears to be on tap. At the end of week-1, an initial mid-level trough is forecast to move through. A stronger, longer duration trough is then forecast to dig into the West Coast, likely with multiple shortwaves embedded within. Todays model solutions feature a more northwesterly flow off the Pacific, which would favor better penetration of moisture into the Interior West, although reducing the potential for heavy precipitation along the coast. Still, Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) from the GEFS and ECENS indicate enhanced chances of 3 day precipitation amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile for much of the West. Uncalibrated forecast guidance also indicates elevated chances of precipitation exceeding 2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Therefore a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for much of the West Coast, extending from Puget Sound southward to the L.A. Basin, and a slight risk of high winds is also indicated for coastal areas from the mouth of the Columbia River to the Santa Barbara Channel, both valid Feb 14-18. As noted above, the favored synoptic setup depicted by model ensembles would favor enhanced snow across the West. Both the ECENS and GEFS depict higher probabilities of snowfall accumulations to reach various thresholds relative to yesterdays solutions, as well as a significantly farther southward extension of the potential for snow. The ECMWF remains the more bullish model, indicating probabilities exceeding 60% of 3-day accumulations of at least 6 inches for much of the Rockies throughout week-2, and similar probabilities of exceeding a foot for the Sierra Nevadas early in the forecast period. While showing a lower signal, the GEFS also shows a notable southward expansion of the potential for heavy snow over the Rockies. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted across the Rocky Mountains as well as the higher elevations of the eastern Great Basin valid Feb 14-18. A second slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Cascades, Klamath and Sierra Nevadas covering the same dates, while a moderate risk of heavy snow is posted for the Sierra Nevadas valid Feb 14-16. The deterministic ECMWF, CMC, and GFS models all show the potential for periodic strong winds across the Rockies and High Plains. The models are not in agreement on the specifics of location and timing, but all show periods of enhanced high wind risk from either a tight pressure gradient and upsloping winds from the east, or downsloping chinook winds from the west. Affected locations, if any, will vary with time, but with the models inconsistent in forecasting exactly which locations will be affected on which days, the whole area is broad-brushed with a slight risk of high winds that continues through week-2. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$