611 FXUS21 KWNC 281912 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 28 2026 SYNOPSIS: Below-normal temperatures are forecast to continue across much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) into early February, with the most extreme cold predicted to subside by the end of week-1. A return of hazardous cold temperatures and wind chill values are forecast to return by next weekend. Impacts could be exacerbated by any residual impacts from the recent storm and any possible upcoming winter weather including reduced snow melt, power outages, and continued strain on heating resources. Additionally, there is enhanced likelihood for high winds during week-2 for parts of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic that could compound impacts and lower wind chill temperatures. Efforts should be made to prepare for an extended period of bitterly cold weather. Enhanced onshore flow increases the chance of heavy precipitation and high winds for southeastern and south-central Alaska through the middle of the period. HAZARDS Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for most areas east of the Mississippi River, Sat-Wed, Feb 7-11. Slight risk of high winds over the Northeast and upper Mid-Atlantic coast, Fri-Mon, Feb 6-9. Slight risk of high winds across south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska, Thu-Sat, Feb 5-7. Slight risk of heavy precipitation across south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska, Thu-Sat, Feb 5-7. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 31 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11: During the upcoming week, bitterly cold temperatures are forecast across the eastern CONUS, which will help maintain any snowpack. The persistence of the cold pattern is associated with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) which leads to positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies at the high (middle) latitudes. The GEFS and ECENS ensembles indicate the AO remaining negative into early February, which is favored to become less negative over the next two weeks. This pattern is conducive to additional outbreaks of arctic air continuing into at least early February, although becoming somewhat less negative than the current status. A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted for most areas east of the Mississippi River through the week-2 period. A brief moderation of the extreme cold is expected at the beginning of week-2 before redeveloping by day 10 (Feb 7), peaking on day 11. Models show temperatures negative temperature anomalies decreasing towards the end of week-2 as the mid-level trough moves eastward off the CONUS. Significant snowpack (4 inches or greater) deposited from the recent major winter storm system extends from about Indiana and southern Lower Michigan eastward to the northern half of the Atlantic Coast. This snowpack will help to extend the duration of unusually cold temperatures associated with arctic air intrusions. There is relatively good agreement among multiple model Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicating minimum temperatures falling to the lowest 15th percentile climatologically, initially across the East Coast and Ohio Valley Feb 7 expanding eastward to a broader area east of the Mississippi River by Feb 8. A slight risk of much below normal temperatures is designated for areas east of the Mississippi River, Feb 7-11. A series of surface lows may traverse along the eastern U.S/Canadian border at the beginning of the period. These lows and associated fronts may bring high winds to the northeastern CONUS. A slight risk of high winds is highlighted for the Northeast and upper Mid-Atlantic coast, Feb 6-9. The ECENS PET shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph, further supported by increased chances in the ensembles of gusts exceeding this speed. Windy conditions would lead to lower wind chill temperatures across the region. Multi-model ensemble means are in good agreement indicating a persistent and anomalous 500-hPa trough extending from the Bering Sea and Aleutians to the north-central Pacific. This amplified mid-level trough is forecast to enhance onshore flow and increase the chance for heavy precipitation and high winds across portions of south-central Alaska, the southeastern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska. Based on uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS ensembles and the PETs from these models, a slight chance of heavy precipitation and high winds remain posted for these areas from Feb 5-7. There is good consensus among the PET indicating 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile and 2 inches, with recent deterministic models showing the possibility of some areas receiving greater than 3 to 4 inches of precipitation in a 24-hour period. Later in week-2, 500-hPa heights are forecast to rise from east to west across much of the state, as an amplified mid-level ridge expands northwestward and retrogrades into the region, favoring a drier pattern. Multiple models indicate the potential for Kona Lows approaching Hawaii during week-2, which could bring enhanced precipitation and gusty conditions to parts of the state. The CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook indicates above normal precipitation favored for Hawaii, with the highest chances (50-60% chance) for the western islands. FORECASTER: Melissa Ou $$