297 
FXUS21 KWNC 221707
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 22 2026

SYNOPSIS: Model guidance favors surface low pressure development over the Great 
Plains at the outset of the week-2 period, bringing the potential for heavy 
precipitation and high winds to portions of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and 
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern and Central 
Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and 
Great Lakes, Mon-Fri, Mar 30-Apr 3.

Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and 
Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Mon-Thu, Mar 30-Apr 2.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 25 - SUNDAY MARCH 29: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR MONDAY MARCH 30 - SUNDAY APRIL 05: Ensemble mean 500-hPa height anomaly 
forecasts from the 0z ECENS and GEFS are in reasonable agreement through about 
the middle of week-2, and depict amplified ridging over the West early in 
week-1, which then weakens and shifts eastward by the outset of week-2 as 
troughing begins to emerge over the North Pacific. At this point the ensemble 
solutions diverge significantly, with the ECENS indicating a shortwave trough 
emerging and moving over the Interior West by the middle of week-2, while the 
GEFS prefers a stronger trough over the North Pacific with slower eastward 
progression. Differences in synoptic evolution aside, both models indicate a 
round of lee cyclogenesis over the Central Plains during the week-2 period, 
with a large area of precipitation developing ahead of the resulting surface 
low pressure. There is quite a bit of spread with regard to the intensity and 
coverage, but this potential storm system has been advertised by both models 
for the last several days and pattern recognition of the synoptic pattern would 
tend to favor a more robust solution. Uncalibrated probabilities from the ECENS 
depict a large swath from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes where chances of 
3-day precipitation exceeding 1 inch exceed 50% through the middle of week-2. 
The GEFS is much less bullish but still shows areas where chances exceed 20% to 
meet the above criteria. Given all this, a slight risk of heavy precipitation 
is posted for Mar 30-Apr 3 for a broad area from the eastern Plains to the 
Appalachians, and from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. Model solutions 
continue to depict tight pressure gradients along the margins of the low 
pressure system, and ensemble mean wind speeds exceed 20mph across much of the 
countrys midsection through the middle of the week. A slight risk of high 
winds is posted for much of the Southern and Central Plains and the Lower and 
Middle Mississippi Valley for Mar 30-Apr 2, during which the wind signal and 
model agreement is strongest.



Over Hawaii, persistent Kona low activity has led to heavy rainfall and 
flooding throughout the state. Ensembles do not show much change in the 
mid-level pattern with troughing favored to persist over the Central Pacific 
later in March. PETs continue to indicate elevated chances for 3-day amounts 
exceeding the 85th percentile, with 3-day total accumulations exceeding an inch 
for some locations through the middle of week-2, after which the signal 
diminishes somewhat. The continuation of above-normal and potentially heavy 
precipitation is likely to worsen already saturated ground conditions and may 
trigger additional localized flooding in the state.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran 

$$