488 FXUS21 KWNC 281954 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST February 28 2026 SYNOPSIS: Multiple model ensembles depict low pressure at mid-levels and the surface over the central Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) at the outset of week-2, along with strong high pressure at the surface and mid-levels over both coasts. This setup is favored to bring potentially heavy precipitation for much of the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, as well as portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. and high winds across much of the eastern CONUS. Flooding is also possible for portions of the MIssissippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys as a result of this heavy precipitation potential. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is depicted pushing Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest, favoring the potential for heavy snow for portions of the Cascades, and the Northern and Central Rockies. HAZARDS High risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys and Southern Plains, Sun-Mon, Mar 8-9. Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, lower Great Lakes region, and the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, Sun-Tue, Mar 8-10. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Southeast U.S., Sun-Wed, Mar 8-11. Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the Northern and Central Rockies, Sun-Tue, Mar 8-10. Slight risk of high winds for much of the central and eastern CONUS, Sun-Wed, Mar 8-11. Slight risk of high winds for much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Rocky Mountains, Sun-Thu, Mar 8-12. Slight risk of high winds for much of the southern and southeastern coast of Alaska, Sun-Wed, Mar 8-11. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for much of western Mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 8-9. Flooding possible for portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys and the lower Great Lakes region. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR TUESDAY MARCH 03 - SATURDAY MARCH 07: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SUNDAY MARCH 08 - SATURDAY MARCH 14: Multiple model ensemble solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies over North America depict an amplified synoptic pattern at the outset of week-2, with a full latitude trough over the Great Plains and amplified ridges situated over both coasts. This setup strongly favors cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies as well as enhanced baroclinicity across the East, bringing the potential for heavy precipitation from the Southern Plains across to the Northeast U.S. Model ensemble daily MSLP forecasts indicate one such round of cyclogenesis during the week-1 period, followed by a second surface low forming over the Central Plains around the start of week-2. Uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS and ECENS both indicate at least a 30% chance of daily precipitation accumulations to exceed 1 inch near the Ohio/Mississippi river confluence for days 8 and 9 (Mar 8-9), as well as at least a 40% chance of daily precipitation totals to exceed a half inch for a large swath from the middle Texas coast stretching northeastward as far as the southern Great Lakes region and the Northeast U.S. for Mar 8-10. Both the ECENS and GEFS indicate further potential for heavy precipitation on Mar 11 for much of the area described above, however both signal strength and model agreement are diminished relative to the start of week-2. Given the strong signal and good model agreement, a high risk of heavy precipitation remains posted for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys and Southern Plains for Mar 8-9, a moderate risk of heavy precipitation covering more of the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, extending further west into the Plains, and southward to the Gulf Coast near the Texas/Louisiana border valid Mar 8-10, and a slight risk of heavy precipitation extending out from these two hazards to include much of central Texas, eastward to include the Appalachians, and northward to include portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., for the period Mar 8-11. Model solutions depict strong surface low pressure development and sharp pressure gradients with these cyclogenesis events, resulting in the potential for high winds for much of the eastern CONUS. Ensemble mean wind speeds from the ECENS and GEFS both exceed 20mph across much of the Central and Southern Plains and across the East as surface low pressure tracks eastward during the first half of week-2, warranting a broad area highlighted for a slight risk of high winds across much of the central and southern CONUS for Mar 8-11. Finally, combined precipitation accumulations from the week-1 and week-2 systems over 6 inches are likely in many locations. This quantity of water is not easily accommodated by river systems, and river, stream, and urban flash flooding are all possible as a result. A large area is highlighted for flooding possible during the week-2 period portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys and the lower Great Lakes region. Flooding and flash flooding are also possible beyond these regions, particularly in low-lying areas. Model ensembles maintain surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and moist onshore flow over western North America, although strong surface high pressure over the North Pacific generally limits the southern extent of this moist inflow near the U.S.-Canadian border. Despite this, uncalibrated probabilities from the GEFS and ECENS show a strong signal for 3-day snow accumulations to exceed 6 inches for the northern Cascades early in week-2, and the bullish ENECS indicates a 20% chance of accumulations to exceed a foot. With strong cyclogenesis likely over the Great Plains models favor good penetration of the moisture further into the West. Both the ECENS and GEFS indicate at least 20% chance of 3-day snow accumulations to exceed 6 inches across the Northern and Central Rockies, with higher chances for the northern ranges, and once again with the ECENS indicating higher chances than the GEFs. These signals are somewhat weak with respect to hazard thresholds in this region, but pattern recognition of the synoptic pattern overall indicates enhanced snowfall potential across the West, particularly early in week-2. A slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern and Central Rockies valid Mar 8-10. No hazard for heavy snow is indicated for the Cascades, although locally heavy accumulations remain possible. High winds are also possible across the West associated with this pattern. Ensemble mean wind speeds over 20mph are widespread across the Pacific Northwest and Interior West through the middle of week-2, and 20-40% chances of wind speeds exceeding 30mph are noted near the Wyoming I-80 corridor. A slight risk of high winds is posted for much of the CONUS west of and including the Rockies Mountains except for most of California, valid Mar 8-12. Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is also favored to enhance winds along the southern and southeastern coast of Alaska, as well as maintain cold easterly flow over the Interior. This pattern is favored to bring extremely cold temperatures into much of the state during week-1. Weaker easterly flow and moderating temperatures are depicted by model ensembles by week-2, however the potential for hazardous cold remains for portions of western Alaska early in the forecast period. Based on best model agreement, a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures remains posted for portions of the western coast of Alaska, valid Mar 8-9. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) for minimum temperatures from the GEFS and ECENS both indicate at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures to fall below the 15th climatological percentile along the western coast of the state through the middle of week-2. The GEFS shows a weaker and longer lasting signal, while the ECENS initially depicts probabilities exceeding 60% on day-8 before dropping below 40% by day-10. The PETs for maximum wind speeds depict a similar picture, with the GEFs maintaining a 20% chance of maximum wind speeds to exceed the 85th percentile through the middle of the forecast period, while the ECENS depicts 40% chances of exceeding the 85th percentile for this region initially, weakening to a 20% chance by the end of week-2. A slight risk of high winds is maintained for much of the southern Alaskan coast and Southeast Alaska for Mar 8-11. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$