711 
FXUS01 KWBC 272018
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 28 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 30 2026

...The Southeast, Northern Plains, and the Southwest will chances
for showers and thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend, some of
which could be marginally severe or bring locally heavy rainfall...

...Southwest heat will abate, while the heat shifts back to the
Central Plains by the end of the weekend...

...A cool down will occur for the West as an upper-trough moves
through the region...

The weather pattern across the U.S. will continue to favor storms
across the Southeast for the weekend as a stationary boundary
lingers across the region. Additionally, a mid-level and surface
low is forecast to form from a shortwave across the central Gulf
Coast for the weekend and enhance showers and thunderstorms.
Across the West, an upper-trough will bring a couple of surface
fronts through the Pacific Northwest and Inter-Mountain West
before slowing down over the area. This will promote showers and
thunderstorms over the next few days. The strong mid-upper level
ridge across the Southwest will shift to the southern Plains for
the weekend. This will bring temperatures down closer to average
for southern California, Arizona, and southern Nevada, while
warmer than average temperatures with highs in the low 100s are
possible across the South and Central Plains.

A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for Friday
across the Carolinas and the Virginia Tidewater as instability and
moisture pools along a stalled frontal boundary in the region.
Thunderstorms capable of hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches a
hour could result in instances of scattered flash flooding.
Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk extends from the Gulf Coast to the
Northeast for a more marginal threat of flash flooding as the
front hangs up along the east coast. For Saturday, the stationary
front will continue to reside over the Southeast and interact with
a weak mid-level low to enhance showers and storms capable of
locally heavy rain and an isolated flash flood risk typical of
summertime thuderstorms. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect for Friday and Saturday across the Northern Plains as
shortwave troughs interact with instability and marginal surface
moisture to produce complexes of storms. The quick motion of the
storms should keep any flash flood threat marginal. Out to the
West, monsoon moisture across the Four Corners region and a
broader upper-level trough for the Rockies will bring a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday Arizona to
southern Montana.

In terms of severe weather, scattered strong winds are possible
for the Southeast tomorrow from wet microbursts, typical of summer
pulse thunderstorms. Across the Dakotas, the upper-level trough
moving into the area will bring dynamics supporting supercell wind
profiles and bring risks of large hail and damaging winds if
storms form into linear segments. On Saturday, a Marginal outlook
is in effect from the Great Basin to the Dakotas with strong to
severe wind gusts possible.



Oudit/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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