364 FXUS01 KWBC 022004 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026 Valid 00Z Mon Aug 03 2026 - 00Z Wed Aug 05 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, the Florida Big Bend, and southern Arizona for Monday... ...A slow moving cold front will bring chances for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall to the Upper Midwest early this week... ...The heat will continue to exceed warning criteria across the Southwest and Inter-Mountain West... For excessive rainfall, one area of focus will continue to be across the Florida Big Bend region. Tomorrow, expect continued chances for locally heavy rain, on the order of another 1-3 inches, as storms continue to move in from the Gulf in a high moisture environment. A Slight Risk remains in effect, especially as soils are more saturated after previous days of rain. Across the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, high moisture transport and lift from a nearby frontal system will allow for a swath of a couple of inches of rain from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward to Massachusetts. The combination of high run-off over the urban 95 corridor and saturated soils from last week's storm warrants a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Monday. Lastly, southern Arizona will see a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall with a forecast more active monsoon. Going into Tuesday, a Marginal Risk excessive rainfall outlook is shaded across the Southeast and Appalachians as a frontal boundary stalls over the region. This rain will also overlap with this previous week's storms and allow for more water run-off potential. Across the Midwest, a cold front over Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin will serve to initiate thunderstorms and bring with it some risk for localized flash flooding as hourly rainfall rates may near or exceed an inch per hour. The monsoon across the Southwest warrants a broad Marginal risk across the burn scars and terrain of southern Colorado and New Mexico, with a targeted Slight across southern Arizona. Locally intense rainfall rates and slow storm motions are the forecast rationale for the Slight across Arizona. On Monday, a Slight risk was issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the Dakotas and western Minnesota for the threats of large hail and damaging winds embedded within supercells. A Marginal risk is valid from New Jersey northwards to New Hampshire and Vermont for the threats of strong to damaging winds. A Marginal risk for locally damaging winds also extends across southern Arizona as thunderstorms pulse with the monsoon. A damaging wind threat remains across southern Arizona on Tuesday as clusters of storms form within the monsoon pattern. The Midwest may also locally strong wind gusts and small hail as a cold front moves into the region, but uncertainty in storm intensity prevented a Marginal risk category. The heat will continue to be a story out West, especially across the Southwest and Inter-Mountain West. Several daily high temperature records are likely in addition to record breaking low temperatures. HeatRisk remains widespread in the Major to Extreme Risk through the medium range period. Excessive heat is also present across the Cascades in the Pacific Northwest as high temperatures reach the upper 90s and low 100s, particularly starting Tuesday and Wednesday as mid-level ridging builds over the region. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$