089 
FXUS01 KWBC 160635
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 16 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 18 2026

...Severe Thunderstorm risk for Friday across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...

...Flash Flooding risk for Friday and Saturday across portions of
Florida...

...Below seasonal temperatures spread eastward from central U.S.
into eastern U.S. by Saturday...


A deepening surface low will continue to track northeastward from
the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada through Friday and will
drive a strong cold front eastward across the eastern U.S. through
Saturday, while a surface trough extends into the Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture streaming northward ahead of the boundary will
support showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Plains into
the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and
Northeast. Strong wind shear and sufficient instability will also
support a few severe thunderstorms across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England. These storms may also
produce damaging wind gust and a brief localized tornado.

Colder air wrapping around the system will support a transition to
wet snow across portions of the lower Great Lakes and higher
elevations of the Northeast by late Friday into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance across the
Southeast, with showers and thunderstorms continuing for portions
of the Carolinas and Florida into Saturday. Repeated rainfall and
high rainfall rates will lead to excessive rainfall/flash flooding
risk over portions of Florida Friday into Saturday. Across the
West, a cold front will move into the Pacific Northwest early
Saturday morning bringing light showers across the area, while
scattered showers develop across portions of the Southwest.

In the wake of the front, Canadian high pressure will build
southeastward across the Plains, Midwest and Eastern U.S.,
ushering in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures
will drop well below seasonal across portions of the central U.S.
before cooler conditions spread eastward. Overnight lows may
approach freezing in parts of central U.S., with frost and freeze
concerns expanding into portions of Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Saturday into Sunday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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