344 
FXUS01 KWBC 131917
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 14 2026 - 00Z Fri Oct 16 2026

...Unsettled weather moves into the West with rain, mixed
precipitation, and mountain snow...

...Heavy rain and severe storms expected across the central U.S....

...Unseasonable warmth to give way to cooler conditions later this
week...

A developing low pressure system moving toward the Four Corners
region will bring another round of chilly, unsettled weather over
the next two days, including freezing temperatures, mixed
precipitation, and heavy snowfall at the highest elevations of the
central Rockies. Early-season freeze warnings are also in effect
across parts of the central Rockies and the Dakotas, where
temperatures are expected to drop below freezing.

Meanwhile, abundant moisture from the Gulf will fuel repeated
rounds of showers and thunderstorms along a nearly stationary
front stretching across the central and southern Plains. Heavy
rainfall is expected to persist through Thursday, with totals
potentially reaching 2â€4 inches or more from the Texas Big Bend
into the Mid-South, increasing the potential for localized flash
flooding. Some storms could also become severe this afternoon and
evening as warm, humid air and favorable upper-level winds create
conditions supportive of organized thunderstorms. The greatest
threats will extend from the southern High Plains into Kansas and
the Lower Missouri Valley, where storms may produce large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado. Flood Watches are
already in place for these areas. In the Northeast, the frontal
system will move through more quickly, while a developing wave of
low pressure brings widespread rain and possible snow at higher
elevations across New England today.

Lastly, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across
the Midwest and Southeast for several more days, with some areas
at risk of breaking daily high temperature records. However, a
shift toward cooler conditions is on the horizon. By late this
week, a surge of chilly Canadian air will spread across much of
the central United States, driving a slow-moving cold front
farther south and ushering in more seasonable autumn temperatures,
bringing the recent stretch of unusual warmth to an end.

Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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