627 
FXUS01 KWBC 191852
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 20 2025 - 00Z Mon Sep 22 2025

...Lingering moisture from Mario will continue to promote flash
flooding risk in California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest
today...

...Above average temperatures, for the last weekend of Summer,
across much of the eastern and southern U.S...


Moisture surging north from Mario's remnants will continue to
interact with an upper trough and terrain within an unstable
environment to produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of
California, the Great Basin and Southwest this evening. A marginal
risk (at least 5% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect due
to the threat of localized flash flooding. The flash flood threat
should diminish across the Southwest on Saturday, while high
temperatures remain below average due to cloudy conditions beneath
the upper low.

Troughing over the Central U.S. will promote showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. Storms forming along a surface front
could produce instances of flash flooding over portions of the
Lower Missouri Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest
tonight, where marginal risks of excessive rainfall are in effect.
Storms are expected to develop along a stationary front draped
across the Midwest and Central Appalachians on Saturday, with a
potential focus emerging over the latter area Saturday evening. A
marginal risk is in effect for portions of eastern West Virginia
and western Virginia as a result. Monsoon moisture returns to the
Southwest on Sunday, while upper level disturbances refocus
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
The Central U.S. trough will send warm southerly air into the
Midwest, leading to well above average temperatures this weekend.
Ridging will promote similar conditions over the Southern Plains
into early next week.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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