632 FXUS01 KWBC 040651 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 06 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Southwest on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Carolina Coast, the Eastern Gulf Coast of Florida, and the Southwest on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Wednesday... A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly dissipate by Wednesday. Moisture-rich air and a nearby front will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and Florida on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Ohio Valley southward to Florida. Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest during the late afternoon into the late evening through Thursday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Southwest on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. A second front over the Upper Great Lakes, across the Middle Mississippi Valley, and into parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Central Rockies on Tuesday will move slowly eastward to the Great Lakes and the Central Plains by Thursday morning. The boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains on Tuesday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rain on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from Southwestern Lake Michigan into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$