417 
FXUS01 KWBC 020556
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 04 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Northern Rockies
into the Plains and the Southwest over the next few days...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
across the Northern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for
portions of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for
North Dakota on Tuesday...


Unsettled weather continues as a upper-level trough over the
northwest will move across the northern tier, while a ridging
pattern pushes eastward from central and southern U.S. to the East
Coast by mid-week. At the surface, a frontal boundary will moves
across the Rockies/Plains and will interact with moist and
unstable air, supporting multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With large scale forcing and sufficient amount of
moisture, chances for clustering along the boundary and high rain
rates will be possible, leading to flash flooding concerns.
Therefore, Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted parts
of North Dakota with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, with a
Marginal Risk extending downward across the Plains into Texas and
New Mexico. An secondary frontal boundary stretching across the
southern tier will pool warm Gulf moisture northward, which will
bring higher rainfall rates,  which will bring concern for flash
flooding over steeper terrain and burn scars. Therefore, WPC has a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across west Texas and New
Mexico. In addition to flash flooding concerns, Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Northern Plains and a Marginal Risk across Central to Southern
Plains and parts of the Southeast. Additional hazards associated
with the system will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated
tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a frontal boundary and shortwave disturbance will
develop along the northwest, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Intermountain West/Northern Rockies. As
the cold front slowly advances further eastward across the
Northern Plains, an active convective pattern will continue. Much
of the Great Plains and parts of West Texas and New Mexico will
remain under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall as clusters of
convection will continue to bring heavy rainfall along the
boundary. With the continuation of warm moisture accumulating
along the southern High Plains, WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over portions of west Texas. In addition, SPC
continues the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the
Northern Plains into Wednesday, with a Marginal Risk extending
down into Central Plains.

Temperatures on Tuesday will mostly be near normal or slightly
above normal across CONUS, with the exception of the Mid-Atlantic
and Northern Rockies where below normal temperatures persist. On
Wednesday, much of Southern Plains into the Southeast will
transition to below normal temperatures as the frontal boundary
moves southward. 



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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