122 
FXUS01 KWBC 121835
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 13 2026 - 00Z Wed Jul 15 2026

...Dangerous heat reaching its peak through Tuesday from the Great
Basin to the northern Plains; all-time record highs possible...

...Threat of heavy rain today across the southern Appalachians to
the Carolinas will shift to the central Gulf Coast and across
central Texas Monday into Wednesday...

An intensifying upper-level high centered over the western U.S. is
working in concert with an upper-level trough digging toward the
Pacific Northwest to bring anomalous heat from the Great Basin to
the northern Plains. This heatwave is expected to peak through
Tuesday when triple-digit high temperatures will be common along
this corridor.  In fact, a few all-time high temperature records
will be challenged this afternoon (including the all-time high of
107 at Salt Lake City, UT, and 108 at Billings, MT). If you will
be situated within any of these areas forecast to experience
extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and limit
outdoor activities if possible. A cold front will draw marginally
cooler air eastward from the Pacific Northwest into Montana later
today, while anomalous heat soaring well into the 100s is forecast
for the Northern Plains towards midweek.

Meanwhile, repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue today across the southern Appalachians to the
Carolinas as a couple of low pressure waves undulate along a
slow-moving front. The threat of heavy rain and severe weather
continues to pose a Slight risk of flash flooding today along this
corridor of the eastern U.S. By Monday, the threat of flash
flooding is forecast to lessen across the Mid-Atlantic although
scattered heavy downpours remain possible over interior Southeast.
Meanwhile, heavy rain and flash flooding threats will shift toward
the central Gulf Coast and central Texas on Monday into Tuesday as
Gulf moisture will remain in place near the tail end of the
stationary front. As multiple days of heavy rainfall begin to
overlap, the potential for significant flash flooding will
increase on Wednesday across portions of western and central
Texas, so stay tuned for updates to the forecast in the coming
days. Farther west, an influx of monsoonal moisture will lead to
an uptick in daytime thunderstorms over portions of the Great
Basin and Intermountain West, which could lead to a few instances
of flash flooding and severe weather through at least midweek.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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