924 FXUS01 KWBC 031834 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 233 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 00Z Sat Jul 04 2026 - 00Z Mon Jul 06 2026 ...Dangerous heat in the eastern U.S. through Independence Day weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Critical fire weather conditions for the Four Corners region today... A slow-moving frontal boundary will gradually sink south across the north-central and northeastern U.S. through the weekend, which will be the main focus for precipitation chances. Showers and storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, and an upper level shortwave will likely support severe thunderstorm development from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic through Independence Day. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of these regions with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for today and Independence Day, with an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from central Nebraska to western Iowa for today. Scattered severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging winds, and hail will be possible over the Plains. Storms may also produce excessive rainfall that could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding over the Plains and Midwest today and Midwest to Mid-Atlantic on Independence Day. Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall chances are expected to persist over the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. In addition to thunderstorm chances, the eastern U.S. will also be dealing with the ongoing record-breaking heatwave through Independence Day weekend. High temperatures of 95-105 degrees combined with high humidity will result in heat index values of 100-115 degrees. This level of heat will create widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk and will be dangerous to anyone without cooling or hydration. Outdoor Independence Day activities may be impacted be these extreme temperatures. Meanwhile, a frontal system will gradually move onshore in the Pacific Northwest. The system will approach the coast on Saturday and move onshore Saturday night, and will be generally pretty dry aside from some upslope showers in Washington state. Southerly flow ahead of the system will bring warmer air into the western U.S., bringing temperatures up to near average values for this time of year. Dry and gusty weather across the Four Corners region will prolong Critical fire weather conditions for the region through the rest of today, but conditions look to improve on Independence Day as southerly flow increases humidity across the region. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$