357 
FXUS01 KWBC 292000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 30 2026 - 00Z Sat May 02 2026

...Flash flood threat ramps up across portions of Texas into the
Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday...

...Heavy snow expected for higher elevations of the
central/southern Rockies Thursday and Friday...

...Cooler, below average temperatures following a frontal passage
for the central/eastern U.S. while the western U.S. trends warmer
the next few days...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue
this evening into the overnight hours ahead of a cold front
stretching southward along the East Coast and then west through
the Southeast/Gulf Coast and into Texas. Greater
moisture/instability south of the front across portions of the
Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley west through eastern and
central Texas will lead to more robust thunderstorms capable of
severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Locally heavy downpours and a
few isolated instances of flash flooding are also possible. The
front will begin to clear the East Coast by Thursday morning
through the Mid-Atlantic but linger much longer for New England
where ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue through
tonight and perhaps into Friday morning. A secondary front may
bring some scattered light showers across the Midwest and into the
Interior Northeast later Thursday with perhaps a wintry mix
possible for higher elevations of the Interior Northeast.
Meanwhile, to the south, the front will make much slower
progression, becoming quasi-stationary at times, along the Gulf
Coast west through Texas as well as into portions of the
Southwest. This boundary along with an incoming upper-wave will
support more rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple of days.
Anomalously high Gulf moisture pooling along the boundary as well
as the tendency for repeated rounds of storm development given the
quasi-stationary nature of the boundary will support a heavy
rainfall threat. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4)
have been outlooked for portions of central Texas Thursday and
central/eastern Texas east through the Lower Mississippi Valley
for Friday where the greatest threat for scattered instances of
flash flooding are expected. Higher risk categories may be
necessary as confidence grows on storm coverage/location given the
moisture in place and multi-day nature of the event.

Some scattered rain showers for lower elevations and snow for
higher elevations will continue over portions of the
northern/central Rockies through tonight as an upper-wave/frontal
boundary pass through. Then, on Thursday, as moist upslope flow
increases ahead of the incoming upper-wave over the Southwest,
more widespread, heavy precipitation is expected to develop
through the central/southern Rockies and ascendant High Plains
through Friday. Heavy snow is forecast for the regional mountain
ranges, and some snow may mix in for higher elevations along the
Front Range such as the Palmer Divide, though accumulations here
should be limited. The cold front will bring a period of below to
well below average temperatures for most of the central/eastern
U.S. through at least the end of the week. Forecast highs Thursday
and Friday generally range in the 40s and 50s from the Northern
Plains east through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast; the
50s and 60s from the central/southern Plains east through the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic; and 60s and
some 70s for the Southeast. Warmer temperatures into the 80s will
be limited to south of the boundary across Florida, south Texas,
and portions of the Gulf Coast. In contrast, much of the western
U.S. will see a warm-up over the next couple of days with
temperatures settling into average to above average levels.
Forecast highs generally range in the upper 50s to mid-70s for the
Interior West; 60s and 70s along the West Coast with 80s into the
central California Valleys; and 80s and 90s for the Desert
Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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