194 
FXUS01 KWBC 021950
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 03 2026 - 00Z Sun Jul 05 2026

...A prolonged and dangerous heatwave continues across the central
and eastern U.S. through the end of the week and into the
Independence Day weekend...

...Severe weather and heavy rain threats are forecast across
portions of the Plains, Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic,
and Northeast the next few days...

...Critical fire weather conditions persist over parts of the Four
Corners through Saturday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the central
and eastern U.S. through the end of the week, supporting a
prolonged and dangerous heatwave from the Midwest to the Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast into the Independence Day
weekend. Widespread high temperatures of 95 to 105 degrees in
addition to very high humidity will result in peak heat indices of
100 to 115 degrees. Numerous daily temperature records are
expected, with some monthly and all-time records possible. Little
to no relief is expected the next couple of nights as very warm
overnight low temperatures drop only into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Combined, these conditions will lead to an extended period of
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. These conditions can bring
an increased risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable populations and those without adequate cooling.
Widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect
across the central and eastern U.S. through Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge, a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending from the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will act as a focus
for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms the next few
days. The slow-moving front combined with a series of passing
disturbances interacting with a moist and unstable air mass will
support organized severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall
that can lead to flash flooding. As the ridge begins to break
down, passing disturbances will cause the slow-moving front to
gradually pick up speed and sink southward Friday into Saturday.
This will shift the severe weather and heavy rainfall threat into
the central Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast
heading into the weekend.

Out West, critical fire weather conditions will continue through
Friday and Saturday over parts of the Four Corners states as gusty
terrain-driven winds combine with very dry air and exceptionally
dry fuels. These critical conditions will support the longevity of
several ongoing large fires across the region, many of which will
be capable of extreme fire behavior. The strongest winds will
subside shortly after sunset the next couple of days, but poor
humidity recovery will likely sustain active fire activity through
the night and into the day on Friday and Saturday. 
 

Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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