148 
FXUS01 KWBC 241937
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 25 2026 - 00Z Sat Jun 27 2026

...Severe weather and flash flooding threats continue across
portions of the Continental U.S. the next few days...

...Intense heat begins to wane across most of the West on
Thursday; builds across the Southern U.S. through Friday...

...Critical to near critical fire weather risk continues for parts
of the Great Basin and Four Corners through the end of the week...

Daily threats of scattered severe weather and flash flooding will
persist across parts of the country through the end of the week as
a summertime weather pattern remains in place. An abundance of
Gulf moisture and an unstable air mass will interact with a few
slower-moving disturbances and frontal boundaries, setting the
stage for several organized clusters of thunderstorms the next few
days. The strongest storms could quickly turn severe across the
High Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon and
evening, bringing the potential for damaging winds, large hail,
and a few tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather threat,
intense rainfall rates in these storms could yield scattered
instances of flash flooding, especially from the High Plains to
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. West
of the Rockies, thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
isolated downpours are possible over the Great Basin in response
to an influx of moisture around the western periphery of an upper
level ridge. On Thursday, the severe weather threat will stretch
from the High Plains to the Ozarks with heavy rain and potential
flash flooding confined to the central/southern Plains into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Another round of severe storms is possible
for the High Plains on Friday while the risk for heavy rainfall
shifts eastward into the Ohio Valley.

In contrast to an unseasonably cool and dry air mass encompassing
the northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon, intensely hot weather continues across much of the
West. This heat will begin to subside Thursday into Friday as a
frontal system pushes inland from the eastern Pacific. High
temperatures trending 10-20 degrees below normal late week into
the weekend will make for a welcomed reprieve from the heat. While
the West will begin to cool down, the heat will expand and
intensify across the Southern U.S. through the end of the week,
with highs soaring well into the 90s to near 100.

Low relative humidity, gusty winds, dry fuels, and the potential
for lightning from nearby thunderstorms will again lead to
critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Great Basin
and Four Corners this afternoon and evening. Ongoing fires along
with any new fires that develop will have the potential to spread
quickly and can exhibit extreme fire behavior. Near critical fire
weather will remain a concern through the end of the week given
nearby thunderstorm activity and increasing winds with the
approach of a Pacific trough.

Miller

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$