464 FXUS01 KWBC 262001 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 27 2026 - 00Z Wed Jul 29 2026 ...Dangerous heat wave continues over parts of central and southern U.S. into next week... ...Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will spread from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next few days... ...Active monsoonal moisture fuels thunderstorms over the Four Corners Region, Rockies, and High Plains... An expanding, dangerous heat wave continues for the central and southern U.S. as a strong/broad upper-ridge remains in place. High temperatures of 95-105 and high humidity will lead to oppressive heat indices in the 105-115 degree range. For the Desert Southwest, high temperatures will reach upwards of 115-120. This will lead to HeatRisk levels in the Major to Extreme range (levels 3 and 4 of 4) indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. Some daily record high temperatures will be possible. An embedded wave in the ridge as well as monsoonal moisture leading to greater thunderstorm chances may bring some local relief across the central Plains by Tuesday. Another wave will bring a backdoor cold front and relief to much of the Midwest on Tuesday as well. Conditions will be around to below average and more mild across the Northeast, with highs in the 70s and 80s, as well as the Pacific Northwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected over the next few days across much of the eastern U.S. as embedded shortwave energies round the western/central U.S. ridge and through an upper-trough along the East Coast. For the rest of today, the heaviest rainfall is forecast with clustering storms along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through coastal South Carolina/Georgia. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for the threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding, though this threat should wane into the evening hours. More isolated instances of flash flooding are expected with some more organized storms in northwest flow through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Severe weather will also be possible with these storms with the Storm Prediction Center including an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) covering Wisconsin for the threat of significant damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes, with a broader Slight Risk for more isolated threats elsewhere. Additional isolated flash flooding will be possible with an embedded wave through central Virginia/North Carolina, and along the Atlantic Coast of Florida. For Monday, the storm threat shifts into the Great Lakes region/Upper Ohio Valley. More clustering/organized storms will bring a severe weather threat, with a Slight Risk in place mainly for damaging winds, as well as some large hail and perhaps a tornado. Isolated flash flooding will also remain a concern. Then, on Tuesday, another embedded wave will help to reinforce and advance the lingering quasi-stationary frontal system towards the East Coast. Enhanced moist southerly flow off the Atlantic will lead to widespread storms capable of moderate to heavy rainfall through much of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England where the most favorable combination of anomalous moisture and enhanced lift with lead to the potential for locally higher totals of several inches and scattered to potentially widespread/significant instances of flash flooding. Additional isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected elsewhere. Another severe weather threat is also expected with the SPC highlighting portions of the central/southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas in a Slight Risk for some large hail and damaging winds. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorm chances to the Four Corners region as well as portions of the Rockies and High Plains. Locally heavy downpours will bring a threat of isolated flash flooding each day, particularly for urban areas and any burn scars. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Florida as well as the Gulf Coast, with some showers also possible in the Pacific Northwest. Wildfires remain a concern from the northern Sierra into the Great Basin and northern Rockies today with Elevated to Critical Fire Weather threats (levels 1 and 2 of 3) for the region from SPC. An Elevated Risk is continued into Monday for portions of the northern Great Basin. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$