104 FXUS01 KWBC 191927 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 20 2026 - 00Z Mon Jun 22 2026 ...Significant flash flooding conditions continue for much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast... ...A developing low-pressure system renews the threat of numerous flash floods and severe storms to the Central and Southern Plains this weekend... ...A cold front will clear the East Coast, bringing cooler and drier conditions, while the West remains hot and dry, introducing Critical Fire risk on Saturday... The remnant moisture of Tropical Storm Arthur will continue migrating eastward across the Southeast and toward the Atlantic coast, with ongoing thunderstorms continuing through the remainder of today. Slow-moving storms will continue to be fueled by high moisture availability, with precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches. Combined with the antecedent saturation of soils from previous days of rainfall, significant and life-threatening flash flooding will remain a primary concern. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall in southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Scattered flash flooding will also be of concern for the surrounding areas of the Southeast and the Southern Plains as a cold front continues sagging southward. A robust southerly low-level jet will continue to supply the region with warm and moist air from the Gulf, which, along with the frontal boundary, will aid in sustaining thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Consequently, a residual Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall remains highlighted for portions of the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula through the first half of the weekend before precipitation maximums begin to gradually diminish. Elsewhere, a surface low-pressure system initially organizing over the lee of the Rockies is forecast to track eastward across the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday. A robust low-level jet will continuously transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the system, establishing a highly unstable environment as the moisture interacts with a frontal boundary and a dryline. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will flourish within a region characterized by high moisture availability, prompting a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for parts of the Central Plains on Saturday. Intense rainfall rates will have the potential to produce numerous instances of flash and urban flooding, particularly where cells track over the same low-lying areas. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather across the region for Saturday afternoon and evening, where organized convection will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and possible tornadoes. By Sunday, the low-pressure system and its associated frontal boundaries will progress northeastward into the Upper Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley, with the threats of heavy rainfall and severe weather moving into the central portion of the country. Meanwhile, across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, a strong surface high-pressure system building in the wake of a departed cold front will render largely quiet and relatively comfortable weather on Saturday. A steady northwesterly wind will continue to usher in a cooler and drier post-frontal air mass, keeping afternoon maximum temperatures at more seasonable levels in the 70s and 80s alongside lower dew points. In contrast to the seasonable East Coast conditions, above-average conditions will remain throughout the remainder of today and into the weekend across the West. Highs in the 90s are expected today across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West/Great Basin, before declining to the upper 70s and mid-80s by Sunday. Much-above-average temperatures will return, however, to begin the new work week. Concurrently, strong winds and dry conditions are set to commence on Saturday in portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. With relative humidity values in the single digits and surface winds reaching 20 mph, fire weather will be of concern for this area. As such, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather alongside multiple Red Flag Warnings in place for Saturday. Blanco-Alcala/Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$