393 
FXUS01 KWBC 161907
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 17 2026 - 00Z Fri Jun 19 2026

...Multiple days of heavy rainfall associated with Potential
Tropical Cyclone One expected from South Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley...

...Severe thunderstorms remain likely over the Mid-Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys on Wednesday...

...A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms throughout
much of the East Coast late this week...

Heavy rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
continue for the next few days from South Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The slowly propagating tropical system is
expected to bring copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf, which
will flow onshore into the Gulf Coast for a prolonged period. As a
result, considerable, potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding is possible through Thursday across the middle and upper
Texas coast eastward into southern and central portions of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions
of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Widespread small-stream and
minor river flooding is also expected along the Texas coast into
southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river
flooding possible across the Texas coast and Louisiana. Given the
expected rainfall in the region, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall has been outlooked over the next three days for
the aforementioned regions.

On Wednesday, a severe weather outbreak is in store for portions
of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, particularly across parts
of central Illinois and northwestern Indiana. A strong mid-level
trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward, reaching
the Great Lakes on Wednesday, while a strong surface low-pressure
system approaches the region by the evening hours. With a strong
concurrent influx of moisture expected, thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms are likely to
be severe, carrying a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and
potentially intense tornadoes. Winds could reach up to 80 mph in
some areas, with up to 2.5-inch hail expected. As a result, the
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a Moderate Risk (level
4/5) of severe weather for central Illinois and northwestern
Indiana on Wednesday. At the same time, rainfall will be heavy at
times and will bring the possibility of scattered flash flooding.
Consequently, there is also a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall for the same area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, as a precursor
to the frontal system, shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop over the Northern Plains this afternoon and
evening as the cold front sags southward.

Later in the week, the aforementioned low-pressure system and an
associated cold front will continue moving eastward, eventually
reaching the East Coast on Friday. On Thursday, the cold front
will extend from the Northeast through the Mississippi Valley and
into the Southern Plains. This will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms throughout the East, with a potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms will bring a threat of damaging wind gusts, and as
such, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
weather on Thursday.



Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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