900 
FXUS01 KWBC 230655
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the
south-central U.S. into the Southwest...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Midwest, and Southeast
through Monday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central
U.S. and the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across
the southern tier. Above normal temperatures will continue to have
daily afternoon highs within the upper 90s to 100s, with the
highest amounts over the Southern Plains and portions of the Four
Corners. With the combination of little to no overnight recovery
and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees, which
may lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Furthermore,
these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of
high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning
and Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four
Corners, Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and
instability will extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the
Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded
within the northwesterly flow will interact with this moisture and
a frontal boundary, resulting in scattered thunderstorms through
Monday. Repeated convection and high rainfall rates may lead to
excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally, Storm
Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe
thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of
the Great Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further
southwest, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily
thunderstorms across the Southwest, Rockies, and Intermountain
West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash flooding concerns
through Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting
the Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional
upper-level energy will support lingering showers and
thunderstorms into Monday. Some storms may become locally strong
where sufficient instability develops, which may lead to severe
weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the
trailing frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will
bring chances for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and
excessive rainfall into Monday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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