630 FXUS01 KWBC 230738 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026 ...Thunderstorms forecast for the Upper Midwest and central/southern Plains today with severe weather and isolated flash flooding possible... ...Heavy snow continues for higher elevations of the northern Rockies today... ...Gusty winds and warm, very dry conditions will lead to a Critical Risk of fire weather across much of the central/southern High Plains today... A potent upper-trough has begun to emerge over the Plains/Midwest today while lingering over the Rockies, leading to widespread impactful weather including severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, wildfires, and heavy snow. Strong southerly winds ahead of an accompanying surface cold front will advect Gulf moisture and higher instability northward to initiate widespread thunderstorms stretching from the Upper Midwest southwest through the central/southern Plains today (Thursday). Strong upper- and lower-level wind fields will support the threat of severe weather, and a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center is in place across the region with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all possible. A locally higher Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been introduced over portions of eastern Kansas where a combination of higher instability and favorable low-level shear could lead to very large hail and a strong tornado. Locally heavy downpours as well as increasing thunderstorm coverage along the front into the evening hours will also bring an isolated risk for flash flooding. The front will continue eastward Friday bringing thunderstorms into the Great Lakes region southwest through the Mississippi Valley. The severe weather threat will shift southeastward from the ArkLaTex east to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a Slight Risk in place mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Isolated flash flooding will be a threat here as well. Meanwhile, to the west, heavy snow will continue today and linger into Friday for higher elevations of the northern Rockies within the much colder regime under the base of the upper-trough. Some snow may also mix in for the mountain valleys as well as into portions of the northern High Plains, though accumulations should generally remain light. There is some potential for locally impactful amounts for northeast Montana along the Canadian border where a stronger snow band may materialize. Beyond the precipitation threats, a deep surface low and troughing southward along the lee of the Rockies will bring very strong, gusty winds, particularly across portions of the northern Plains. Warm, dry conditions with these gusty downsloping winds across the central and southern High Plains has prompted another Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center today. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will continue today across portions of Louisiana as well as South Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday. A secondary surge of upper-energy from the north will bring renewed precipitation chances into portions of California east into the Great Basin by early Saturday. Temperatures will be variable along the northern tier of the U.S. given expected frontal passages. Forecast highs today across the northern/central Plains, Midwest, and into the Mid-Atlantic will be above average and into the 70s and low 80s. A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday while the Great Lakes region remains above average. New England will remain cooler north of a frontal boundary, with highs in the 40s and 50s. This front is expected to slide southward Friday into Saturday bringing cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s into the Mid-Atlantic. Conditions along the southern tier will remain more consistently warm and above average, with 80s from the Southern Plains east into the Southeast. Most of the western U.S. will hover around average the next couple of days, with 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest and Interior West, 60s and 70s for California, and 80s and 90s for the Desert Southwest. Much colder temperatures will linger under the upper-trough across the northern Rockies, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$