185 FXUS01 KWBC 121930 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026 Valid 00Z Wed May 13 2026 - 00Z Fri May 15 2026 ...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather over the central Great Plains, the Great Lakes, and Florida today... ...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall today over the Atlantic Coast of Florida.... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather over the Northern Great Plains on Wednesday... ...Mixed precipitation for the Northern Intermountain Region by Wednesday... A frontal system is currently progressing through the Great Lakes region and is producing showers and thunderstorms. With sufficient moisture in place and dew points currently in the 50s, this will support the development of isolated severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with the possibility of hail and severe wind gusts. To the southwest in the central Great Plains, the cold front will support a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop with severe weather risk with the best chance mainly over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri where SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. In Florida, with ample moisture in place and a cold front slowly moving through which is creating multi-cell thunderstorms with a few supercell possible, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather. In addition, these storms may bring threats of damaging wind gusts and hail. These thunderstorm will move slowly and pose a risk for flash flooding in urban areas. Due to this potential hazard, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. On Wednesday, a frontal storm will move through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This system will bring a risk of severe weather over Central Montana in which SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) due too the threat of severe wind gusts potential with these thunderstorms. Farther east into the Ohio Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic, the associated cold front currently over the Great Lakes will move into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow and will bring a round of severe weather. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe weather with stronger thunderstorms are capable of producing isolated wind damage and localized severe wind gust. In addition, the cold front system moving into the Northwest Pacific with bring a chance for moderate wintry mix precipitating into the higher elevation of the Cascades and the northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday. Lastly, above normal temperature out West will progress eastward by Thursday into the Great Plains. Green Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$