608 
FXUS01 KWBC 181818
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 19 2025 - 00Z Sun Dec 21 2025

...Very gusty, dangerous winds spread from the north-central U.S.
today into the Northeast Friday....

...Active Atmospheric River pattern continues in the Pacific
Northwest/northern California with very heavy rain and scattered
flooding...

...Above average temperatures across most of the country heading
into the weekend with numerous possible record-tying/breaking
highs in the Western U.S. and New England/Mid-Atlantic Friday...

A quick moving upper-trough, strong surface cyclone, and pair of
cold front passages will continue to lead to very gusty winds for
much of the central/northern Rockies/Plains and into the Midwest
this afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusts of 50 to 80 mph
will bring the threat of power outages, property damage, and
dangerous travel for high-profile vehicles. These gusty winds
combined with very dry conditions across much of southern Kansas
and far northern Oklahoma have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center through the
rest of the day. Additionally, further north, the winds along with
lingering snow showers and fresh fallen snow will continue to lead
to blizzard conditions across portions of the northern Plains.
Further east, an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms will
spread eastward along a cold front pushing from the Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon towards the East Coast
overnight. Generally moderate rainfall is expected. The storms
should clear the coast for southern areas during the morning.
However, strong southerly flow ahead of the system will bring
moist air from the Atlantic north into New England into the day
Friday. Locally heavier rainfall is forecast, and there is a
chance of some isolated flash flooding. Very gusty winds will
continue with the system from the Great Lakes to the Northeast,
with the strongest gusts most likely in the Appalachians and along
coastal areas. Snow showers will follow on the backside of the
system through Friday, particularly for favorable lake-effect
zones downwind of the Great Lakes and higher elevations of the
central Appalachians into interior New England. A clipper system
will bring another chance for some snow showers to these areas
later Saturday.

Meanwhile, to the west, the next in a series of Atmospheric Rivers
will impact the Pacific Northwest today. The heaviest rain is
expected across western Oregon, including for the eastern side of
the Cascades which typically don't see as heavy rainfall during
these events. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is
in effect as rain totals of several inches could lead to scattered
instances of flooding, particularly along the upper-stretches of
the Cascades. The focus for heavy rainfall will shift southward on
Friday with another Slight Risk in effect for coastal portions of
far northern California. Additional scattered instances of
flooding will be possible. Rain will continue into Saturday, but
is not expected to be quite as heavy, with only an isolated threat
of some flooding. Heavy snow continues for higher elevations of
the Cascades as well as for regional ranges of the northern
Rockies as moisture spreads inland. The snow will likely come down
in intensity into Saturday for the northern Rockies while
continuing for the northern Cascades. Lower elevation inland areas
will likely be mostly rain today, but transition to a wintry mix
overnight and to snow showers on Friday as temperatures cool,
though little to no accumulation is expected.

Much of the country will continue to see above to well above
average temperatures to end the week and start the weekend.
Numerous potential record-tying/breaking highs are forecast on
Friday across the Desert Southwest/Great Bast east to the High
Plains as well as for New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The
potential record warmth will continue from the Desert Southwest
east into the southern Plains/Texas on Saturday. One exception
will be behind a sweeping cold front moving from the central to
eastern U.S. today into tomorrow. Conditions remain frigid today
across portions of the northern Plains, and dangerously cold wind
chills well below zero are possible Friday morning. Highs on
Friday will plummet into the teens and 20s for the Midwest and 40s
and 50s into the Southeast on Friday following a mild Thursday.
However, the progressive pattern will quickly bring warmer temps
back the following day.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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