208 FXUS01 KWBC 091918 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 10 2026 - 00Z Sun Jul 12 2026 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic... ...A slow-moving frontal system will bring multiple days of rain over the Tennessee Valley, bringing scattered flash flooding... ...Heat will rebuild over the Northern Plains to start the weekend, while the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast experiences a brief cooldown... Severe weather potential remains across much of the Plains and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject into the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening, where a surface frontal system will aid in generating strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to bring damaging winds in these areas, with chances of large hail in the Plains. Severe thunderstorms are also possible this evening in the Mid-Atlantic. Driven by early afternoon clearing that will promote robust surface heating, alongside a humid air mass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-70s, the development of scattered thunderstorms is expected over eastern West Virginia and western Virginia, tracking eastward through the evening hours. Thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather in the Convective Outlook for the Central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, thunderstorms across all mentioned areas will carry the potential for heavy rainfall and scattered instances of flash flooding. As such, there is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for the remainder of today. Meanwhile, a slow-moving frontal system anchored across the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys will drift southward over the remainder of the week. A prolonged westerly influx of moisture, along with multiple embedded mid-level shortwaves, will lead to persistent rainfall over the next three days in the form of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will exhibit a propensity to backbuild, producing numerous repeated cells over the same locations throughout the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, which will bring the possibility of scattered flash flooding. As a result, there is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for these regions in each of the next three days. Farther west, the first widespread, significant heat wave of the summer for the Intermountain West and Plains is expected to develop on Friday and expand through next week. Widespread high temperatures of 95â€105 degrees are expected, with local maxima above 110 degrees possible. This could produce numerous daily high, monthly, and all-time temperature records. Extremely hot daytime highs combined with potentially record-warm overnight lows will result in increasing heat stress, leading to widespread major to locally extreme HeatRisk. This heat will quickly become dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. Meanwhile in the East, a brief and modest cooldown is expected following the arrival of the windows of the air mass behind the aforementioned surface front. Highs will begin to decrease slightly over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, albeit accompanied by the heavy rain, before moving southward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Temperatures at this point will return closer to seasonal averages, with widespread maximums settling into the mid- to upper 80s. Blanco-Alcala Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$