410 FXUS01 KWBC 230700 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Valid 12Z Sat May 23 2026 - 12Z Mon May 25 2026 ...Wet, stormy, and unsettled weather continues for much of the eastern half of the U.S. through Memorial Day weekend... ...Increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood potential across much of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana the next couple of days... ...Broad upper-level ridging to keep the West unseasonably warm and mainly dry into early next week... Low pressure systems interacting with increasing moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will set the stage for a wet and stormy holiday weekend across much of the eastern half of the country. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in store from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South, Southeast, and Ohio Valley the next couple of days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when instability along and south of the front is highest. While a widespread outbreak of severe weather is not expected, a few clusters of storms may become locally strong to severe. Should that occur, damaging winds and hail would be the main threats. With plenty of moisture to work with, storms will be capable of producing heavy rain as well. As a result, a few isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out, especially where soils are already saturated from prior rainfall. North of the boundary, a strong bubble of high pressure positioned over eastern Canada will wedge southward up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, resulting in continued unseasonably cool, damp, and cloudy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Overrunning moisture over top of this wedge of damp and cool air will lead to waves of soaking rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Warmer air does try to advance northward into the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday into Memorial Day on Monday, but with the risk of additional showers and thunderstorms. Aside from the more localized concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of the eastern half of the U.S. this weekend, an increasing semi-regional threat will begin to take shape across much of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana this afternoon and evening. A series of upper level impulses ejecting out of northern Mexico combined with highly anomalous moisture surging northward from the Gulf will support the development and maintenance of numerous robust clusters of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Gulf Coast. These storms will be capable of producing intense downpours with rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times. Given already saturated soil from previous rainfall and the potential for storm clusters to repeatedly track over the same areas, the threat of excessive rainfall and flash flooding is increasing. A higher end Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall remains in place, though a future upgrade to a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is possible depending on observational trends and the latest model guidance. A similar threat is in store on Sunday as additional clusters of drenching storms ignite and intensify across parts of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. In stark contrast to the wet and unsettled weather across the East, the Western U.S. will stay unseasonably warm and mainly dry through the holiday weekend as broad upper-level ridging remains anchored in place. A few isolated showers may flare up over the higher terrain of the Rockies and Sierra, but that would be more of an exception rather than the rule. High temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal, peaking in the 70s and 80s for most. The hottest temperatures will stay confined to the desert valleys of California, Nevada, and Arizona where highs will soar well into the 90s and 100s through Sunday. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$