801 FXUS01 KWBC 060756 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 08 2026 ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern New England on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains on Tuesday... ...Dangerous heat persists across the Southeast despite a shrinking eastern U.S. heat footprint... The footprint of the oppressive heat that affected portions of the central and eastern U.S. last week will continue to contract through early this week as seasonable to below-normal temperatures spread across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. The cooler air will be accompanied by a slow-moving frontal boundary and areas of low pressure, supporting multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with an increasing threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Northern Plains will dissipate over the Central/Northern Plains by Monday afternoon. The boundary will settle into the Carolinas westward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Southern New England. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern New England on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. In addition, a second area of Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is over the Mid-Atlantic into Western Pennsylvania on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into Western Pennsylvania. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall extends from parts of the Northeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Furthermore, a second front extending from the Northern Plains, southwestward into the Great Basin will move into the Upper Great Lakes roughly to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The system will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. As the front moves eastward, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will mainly create localized flash-flood areas, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. On Wednesday, as the boundary moves into the Upper Great Lakes, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area. Elsewhere, an influx of moisture over the Great Basin will trigger showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon into the late evening on Monday and Tuesday. Additionally, diurnal heating and ample moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon into the late evening over parts of the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$