787 FXUS01 KWBC 070810 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 AM EDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 09 2026 ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains, Northern High Plains, and Upper Midwest on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, Central High Plains, and Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains and the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...Dangerous heat persists across the Southeast despite a shrinking eastern U.S. heat footprint while heat builds in the Southwest... Above-normal temperatures and high humidity will continue to pose an elevated risk of heat-related illnesses across the Southeast through midweek, while heat gradually builds across the Southern Plains. In the Southwest, temperatures are also expected to climb, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remaining in effect through midweek across parts of Arizona and Southern California. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon. The boundary will bubble northward into the Central Plains and sag southward over the Southeast by Thursday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains with heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians into the Southern Ohio /Tennessee Valley through Thursday. A second front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains, then westward into the Great Basin, will be quasi-stationary through Thursday. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Midwest into the Northern Plains on Tuesday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and the Northern Plains into parts of the Northern High Plains. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, heavy rain will accompany the severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest into the Northern Plains. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. Furthermore, as the front moves eastward into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. Also on Wednesday, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Central High Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Elsewhere, an influx of moisture over the Southwest, the Great Basin, and the Rockies will trigger showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon into the late evening on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, diurnal heating and ample moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon into the late evening over parts of the Gulf Coast and into Florida on Tuesday and to a much lesser degree on Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$