827 FXUS01 KWBC 220719 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 318 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026 Valid 12Z Fri May 22 2026 - 12Z Sun May 24 2026 ...Scattered flash flooding potential from the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf Coast States the next couple of days... ...Another threat of severe thunderstorms today across the southern High Plains... ...A wet and unsettled Memorial Day weekend is in store for much of the East, while the West remains warm and dry... A slow-moving, wavy frontal system will be the primary focus for active weather across the eastern half of the country the next few days. Several disturbances moving from the central U.S. to the eastern U.S. along an undulating front separating warm and humid air to the south from much cooler and less humid air to the north will produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly from the southern Plains and Deep South to the Ohio Valley. Cool, wet, and unsettled weather will likely put a damper on some Memorial Day weekend activities, especially on the cooler side of the front in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as waves of showers move through. Highs only in the 50s and 60s there will also make for a sharp contrast from the intense early season heatwave from earlier in the week. On the warm side of the front, some of the shower and thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce severe weather and flash flooding, with daily threats heading into the weekend. On Friday, the greatest concern for severe weather will be across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening, where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms may also grow to become strong across portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley, along the central Gulf Coast states, and in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where Marginal Risks are in place for isolated severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado. Many storms will also contain heavy rainfall, and this will especially be the case across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening given increasing instability and moisture. With the potential for clusters of storms to contain locally intense rainfall rates over increasingly saturated soils, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is in place to highlight the threat. Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the southern Plains and the Southeast. While storm intensity should be less than on Friday, isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out. Meanwhile, the heavy rain and flash flooding potential ramps up across much of eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana as rich Gulf moisture and impressive instability surges northward. Multiple clusters of storms containing heavy rainfall rates repeatedly tracking over the same areas that already have saturated grounds will quickly lead to a flash flooding threat Saturday afternoon. As a result, a higher end Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in effect. Elsewhere, heavier showers and storms may also lead to flooding concerns in parts of the Southeast, though any issues are expected to be localized. Meanwhile, with wet and stormy weather keeping the eastern U.S. unsettled the next few days, the same cannot be said for the western U.S. Other than a few high elevation showers across some mountain ranges in the Rockies and Sierra, the majority of the West will stay warm and dry through the holiday weekend. High temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s for most, with 90s and 100s confined to the lower deserts of California, Nevada, and Arizona. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$