115 FXUS01 KWBC 052000 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 00Z Wed May 06 2026 - 00Z Fri May 08 2026 ...Significant May winter storm ongoing across Wyoming and Colorado... ...Severe weather and heavy rain to impact parts of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley through midweek... ...Chilly temperatures will persist across the Central and Eastern U.S. behind a cold front passage... In the Rockies, a significant winter storm has begun and is expected to bring heavy snow through Wednesday evening. Latest afternoon guidance indicates additional snowfall probabilities over 4 inches at 50-80% from Cheyenne southward to Denver and the Palmer Divide. Probabilities for snow amounts over 8 inches are at 50-90% from the Front Range and central Continental Divide mountains, including Sangre de Cristos and San Juans. High elevations, including Rocky Mountain National Park, have 60-90% chances for seeing snowfall over a foot. Overall, this anomalous May winter storm will bring widespread Moderate Winter Storm impacts. Travel will be difficult and power outages will be possible. A cold front moving southeastwards across the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley will clash with a unstable air mass to the South and be a focal points for thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has threats of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds this afternoon from north Texas to western Tennessee. Storms capable of producing strong winds will also be possible for New York State to New England. Tomorrow, the severe weather will shift farther southeast along the cold front as it slowly moves south. SPC has highlighted an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for central Mississippi to central Alabama as large hail, damaging winds, and large hail are possible with supercells that form. Heavy rainfall will also occur with these storms this afternoon into tomorrow. Later this afternoon into the evening, more storms are likely to fire ahead of the cold front and may form into linear clusters capable of training storm motions. The Memphis metro and surrounding areas are under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as flash flooding is more probable due to high runoff from urban development and saturated soils from heavy rainfall this morning. For tomorrow, a more widespread threat of flash flooding is possible from Mississippi to western North Carolina. Slow moving storms and favorable ingredients of surface instability with high precipitable water set the stage for a higher end Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the areas mentioned above. Model QPF had around 3-5 inches possible in the Slight Risk; turn around and don't drown if high water is on roads. Temperatures will remain significantly below average across the northern and eastern portions of the country following the cold front's passage. High temperatures in the 50s and 60s will be likely across the Plains and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s and 30s will be possible for these same areas. Temperatures will be around 20-30 degrees colder than average for early May. Frost and freezes will be a concern for the Spring growing season. As for the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will warm up significantly as highs approach the lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$