148 FXUS01 KWBC 211956 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Valid 00Z Fri May 22 2026 - 00Z Sun May 24 2026 ...Thunderstorms continue from the central High Plains southward to Texas and across the Deep South... ...A wet Memorial Day weekend is in store for much of the East, while the West remains dry... ...Snow/wintry mix are expected in the Rockies, with rain and thunderstorms in the lower elevations... An amplified upper-level trough over the western half of the U.S. will continue to eject multiple disturbances over the midsection and eastern portions of the country. This will aid in sustaining multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms eastward across the central and southern High Plains over the next couple of days. At the surface, the disturbance will be in the form of a frontal boundary, which is forecast to move through the central U.S. and approach the East through the weekend. Thunderstorms are expected to commence in the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and continue into the evening. Storms could bring a threat of large hail and gusty winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for eastern Colorado and portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle. Farther south in Texas, a warm front will continue lifting northward, eventually consolidating into the previously mentioned frontal system in the central High Plains. This will allow precipitation to continue throughout the remainder of today before moving into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. Precipitation could be heavy and highly efficient at times, with rain rates between 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour in parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma, potentially leading to scattered instances of flash flooding. As such, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is forecast for this area for the remainder of today. After a brief reprieve from the rain on Friday, a return is expected on Saturday. Storms on Saturday are expected to be less intense, but with abundant moisture moving in from the Gulf, precipitation will bring a renewed chance for scattered flash flooding. As a result, there is also a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Eastern U.S. will continue experiencing a period of wetter weather through the next couple of days heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The low-pressure system consolidating over the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday is forecast to gradually intensify and track into the Midwest, reaching the Ohio Valley by Saturday morning. This system will bring extremely beneficial rainfall into the Eastern U.S., though arriving over the Memorial Day weekend. Damp conditions will provide a stark contrast to the heat that the East received over the past few days. Very warm and humid conditions, however, will continue across the Southeast as the previously mentioned scattered thunderstorms move through. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from the Deep South to the Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning. Farther west, a round of wet snow and wintry precipitation is expected to reach as far south as the Front Range this evening. Snowfall is expected to be short-lived as a surface ridge moves in and forces the low-pressure system farther south. Precipitation in this area should subside during the evening and overnight hours tonight. In contrast to the wet conditions occurring in the East, most of the West will remain quite dry, which acts as unwelcome news for ongoing drought conditions in the region. Additionally, a return of above-average temperatures is expected for the West, becoming more widespread on Saturday as the influence of the frontal systems dissipates. Blanco-Alcala/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$