110 
FXUS01 KWBC 102001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 11 2026 - 00Z Mon Jul 13 2026

...Repeated threats for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding from the central/southern Plains eastward to the
east-central U.S into the weekend...

...Dangerous heat is forecast to build over portions of the
north-central and western U.S. this weekend while the heat lingers
over the Southeast...

A slow moving cold front will gradually advance southward from the
northeastern U.S into the central Plains through the weekend. The
front will be associated with an anomalous plume of moisture which
will contribute to scattered to numerous thunderstorms, peaking in
coverage during the afternoon to early overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorm and flash flood threats will extend from the central
High Plains into portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Mid-Atlantic states. For the remainder of today into tonight, a
dual severe/flash flood threat will exist across Missouri into
western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. A Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms is in place from SPC, overlapping with WPC's
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall in place over southeastern MO
where a stripe of 5 to 10+ inches fell Thursday night. Should
additional heavy rains impact these highly vulnerable soil and
stream conditions across southeastern Missouri through Saturday
morning, considerable flood impacts will be likely.

The severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats will shift south
for Sunday, still covering portions of the Ohio Valley and
southeastern Missouri, but also including portions of Oklahoma to
the southern Appalachians. Combining with the severe storm threats
will be higher than usual high heat and humidity for parts of the
Southeast. Heat index values of 105 to locally over 110 degrees
will be possible for eastern portions of the Carolinas into
Florida through Saturday. Some relief in the form of clouds and
rain will decrease the hazardous heat on Sunday over the Carolinas
but above average temperatures will continue over Florida.

Farther west, from the Intermountain West to the northern Plains,
dangerous heat is expected to unfold through the weekend with
triple digit highs and potential for daily maximum temperature
records both days. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days with
the greatest departures from average extending from central and
eastern Montana into North Dakota. It is here where forecast highs
on Sunday will range from 100 to 110 degrees (locally 110+
possible) which will be about 15 to 25 degrees above normal for
mid-July. If you will be situated within any of these areas
forecast to experience extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks and limit outdoor activities if possible.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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