829 FXUS01 KWBC 181901 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 19 2026 - 00Z Tue Jul 21 2026 ...Additional Canadian wildfire smoke to move south across the Great Lakes into the Mid-West, while improvements to air quality expected across the East... ...Active thunderstorms expected along and ahead of a cold front pressing south along the east coast... ...An active monsoonal precip pattern to continue over the next few days from the Southwest into the Great Basin... ...System over the northeast Gulf may bring heavy rains to coastal sections of the eastern Gulf... ...Major heat risks build from the Northern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The ongoing wildfires across western portions of Ontario will continue to be a source of wildfire smoke affecting portions of the CONUS this weekend into next. The next batch of smoke is expected to push southward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-West this weekend/early next week. Air quality alerts are currently in effect across these area and eastward into the Northeast and New England. While smoke concentrations are expected to increase over the next few days over the Great Lakes to Mid-West areas, there is expected to be a decrease in smoke concentrations from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast/New England as the current region of smoke pushes northeastward and off the coast Saturday night into early Sunday. While additional smoke is forecast to sink south and southeast Sunday and Monday across these areas, the concentration of smoke is not expected to be as bad as the recent/current event. The lead area of smoke affecting the East on Saturday will be shunted northeastward by a southeastward moving cold front late Saturday into early Sunday. Thunderstorms have already become active along and ahead of this front Saturday afternoon across the northeast and will likely continue Saturday evening from southern New England, south through the Mid-Atlantic. These thunderstorms will pose the risk of heavy rains, localized flash flooding and severe weather. Active thunderstorms along and ahead of this front will then affect the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather. Relatively quiet weather expected over areas of Texas hit hard from recent very rains. Locally heavy rains are possible, however. over far Southwest Texas where above average moisture values are expected. These above average moisture values will also extend farther to the northwest, across the Southwest and into the Great Basin. This will support a continuation of an active monsoonal precipitation pattern across these areas. Locally heavy rains and isolated flash flooding are possible across these regions for this weekend and extending into the beginning to middle parts of the upcoming week. Across the northeast Gulf, an slow moving system may bring heavy rains to coastal sections of the eastern Gulf over the next few days. Please see the latest National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook for additional information on this system. Temperature wise, major heat risks will be increasing Sunday and Monday from the Northern Plains, southeastward into the Lower Missouri and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Much above average temperatures expected across these areas with highs ranging from the Mid 90s to Lower 100s. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$