293 FXUS01 KWBC 121843 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 241 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Valid 00Z Tue Oct 13 2026 - 00Z Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Heavy rainfall continues over the Great Basin and Southwest today; wet weather moves into the Plains later this week... ...Mid-Week Brings Plains Storms, Eastern Heat, and Western Chill... A persistent cold front combined with remnant tropical moisture is set to prolong damp conditions across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into early this week. Heavy downpours are anticipated today, particularly in elevated areas stretching from Utah down through Arizona. Because these heavy rains are falling on ground already saturated by recent storms, localized flash flooding remains a key concern. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Furthermore, as an upper low-pressure system glides in from the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will plunge, as well as, snow levels in the higher elevations to support snow on the peaks of the Shoshone and Monitor Range in Nevada and Utah Wasatch. This upper-level system will keep the West damp into Tuesday, maintaining a localized flood threat across parts of Utah. By midweek, the primary storm focus shifts east toward the Central and Southern Plains, where surging moisture will collide with a lingering front and an intensifying dryline. A line of scattered severe thunderstorms could break out from Kansas City down to Lubbock on Tuesday.The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with the main threats other than heavy rain being large hail and damaging winds. By Wednesday, rainfall totals reaching 2 to 3 inches are likely along a corridor spanning western Missouri to the Texas Big Bend, triggering a slight risk for excessive runoff. Farther northeast, a developing low-pressure wave will drag rain and thunder across northern stretches of the Upper Midwest and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday. While flood threats remain minimal there, higher elevations like Maine's Boundary and Blue Mountains could see minor snow accumulation. Lastly, in terms of temperatures nationwide, a dramatic temperature split will divide the nation through the middle of the week. Unusually warm air will envelop the Central and Eastern states, driving afternoon peaks into the 80s and low 90s across the Plains and Midwest, likely challenging or surpassing standing daily heat records. Conversely, the western interior will shiver under the upper-level low, struggling to push past the 40s and 50s. Over the next two days, colder air will trickle southward behind the advancing boundary, ushering in a sharp cooldown for the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and New England. Green/Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$