980 FXUS01 KWBC 152013 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 16 2026 - 00Z Sat Jul 18 2026 ...Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill Country... ...Anomalous heat and humidity continuing across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest while spreading into the northern Mid-Atlantic... ...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms develop across the interior western U.S... ...Severe thunderstorms for portions of Montana Thursday as well as strong thunderstorms for northern New England... Prolonged heat and humidity expected for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes with daily maximums holding steady in the 90s to lower 100s for the next few days. Some cooler, drier air is expected to reach the U.S.- Canadian border as a cold front trailing from a deepening cyclone across eastern Canada. Temperatures will hover around the 80s there. Meanwhile, the heat and increased humidity will return to the northern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday when triple digit high temperatures are expected at the hottest locations. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across portions of the Northern Plains as Heat Advisories and some Extreme Heat Warnings are posted for much of the Great Lakes, portions of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. If you will be situated within any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and limit outdoor activities if possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible across Montana on the backside of a low pressure wave near the western end of the end. Cooler air will penetrate deeper into New England by Thursday morning under gusty westerly winds behind the cold front followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air by Friday morning with the passage of a second cold front. In addition, some strong thunderstorms are possible later on Thursday across northern New England prior to the arrival of the second cold front. As the anomalous upper high sprawls across the northern stats a slow-moving weather regime has set up across the southern tier states. A nearly stationary front will also stretched from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Upper-level vortices will likely interact with the wavy frontal boundary and influx of Gulf moisture to produce repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the southern states. Near the western end of the front, a significant heavy rainfall event is forecast to linger across the Texas Hill Country over the next three days as clusters of thunderstorms could mutually amplify the smaller scale upper-level vortices to further enhance rainfall over this region under this slow-moving weather pattern. The latest rainfall forecast calls for storm total rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ inches possible over the next couple of days, which could lead to dangerous flash flooding as soils in the area become increasingly inundated. There will be an influx of monsoonal moisture to trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Four Corners, Intermountain West, and the eastern portion of the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast from the Deep South to the Southeast near the stationary front, which will be lifting farther north into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later on Thursday. A few instances of flash flooding and severe weather are possible in the strongest storms through midweek. Kong/Campbell/Asherman/Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$