547 FXUS01 KWBC 040509 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 106 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 06 2026 ...Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Plains and Upper Midwest with heavy rain and severe weather concerns the next few days... ...A large area of high pressure will keep most of the eastern half of the country dry through the end of the week... ...Unseasonable warmth spreads from the Southwest and Upper Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday into Friday... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding concerns continue across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary stretched across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will serve as the primary focus for convective development through the remainder of the week. A persistent corridor of strong low-level moisture transport from the Gulf will interact with the stalled frontal zone and passing mid-level disturbances. This setup favors repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with a chance for clustering developing along the boundary, which can lead to localized flash flooding concerns. Therefore, there is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, while a broad Marginal Risk (level 1/4) encompasses much of the Plains into the Upper Midwest for Thursday. In addition, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of the northern High Plains across South Dakota and northern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, where much of the environment will be unstable. Additional threats with this storm will be large hail, damaging winds, and a chance for a couple of tornadoes. On Friday, as the frontal passage continues to slowly track eastward, the focus of the showers and thunderstorms will expand further into the Upper Midwest. With the increase in southwesterly flow bringing additional warm moisture northward, high rainfall rates will be possible along the boundary, which may bring flash flooding conditions across the Plains and Upper Midwest. In addition, rich low-level moisture, daytime heating and shortwave disturbances near the Gulf Coast and Texas will produce widespread thunderstorm development, bringing flooding concerns to the area. SPC has also shifted their Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms into central and eastern Nebraska into Iowa, southern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin for Friday. A ridging pattern over the eastern U.S. will promote generally warm and mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary approaching the Great Lakes may trigger some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, but widespread organized convection is not anticipated. With the broad high pressure over much of the east, temperatures will run several degrees above normal with afternoon highs in the 80s to 90s across half of eastern U.S. Humidity levels will begin to increase as the southerly flow strengthens. Over into the Southwest, temperatures will also climb to the 80s and 90s, but portions of the Desert Southwest may see temperatures in the 100s. Meanwhile, a upper-level low will drop into the Pacific Northwest, bringing chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over the Northwest by the weekend. Oudit Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$