302 
FXUS01 KWBC 151908
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 16 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 18 2026

...Severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats
continue from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and across
the central High Plains...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast...

The weather story remained unchanged through this week thanks to a
stagnant weather pattern across the Lower 48, but a change is on
the horizon for the upcoming work week. Until then, unsettled
weather will continue from the Midwest to the central Appalachians
in the vicinity of a stationary front, with scattered severe
thunderstorms possible through Sunday as waves of upper level
energy move overhead. These regions received an extreme amount of
rainfall following multiple rounds of showers and storms this
week, which will increase the risk of flash flooding with any
additional rainfall. The highest flash flood risks will focus over
the Ohio Valley through tonight and into the central Appalachians
on Sunday, and there are Moderate Risks (level 3/4) for these
respective regions in the Day 1 (Saturday) and Day 2 (Sunday)
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Severe thunderstorms may spill into
the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and could produce locally heavy rain
and scattered instances of flash flooding.

Unsettled weather is also expected across the High Plains through
the weekend as a cold front pushes south across the region, with
the tail end of the front stalling up against the Rocky Mountains.
Upper level shortwaves moving north along the western edge of a
ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast will interact with the frontal
boundary and create a threat of scattered severe thunderstorms
over the central High Plains. Storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall that could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding, especially in vulnerable areas near steep terrain, burn
scars, slot canyons, and urbanized areas.

Sunday night into Monday, the weather pattern will become more
energetic, and a low pressure system will track east along the
US-Canada border. The problematic stationary front over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley will weaken as the low pressure system
pushes a stronger cold front towards these regions. The cold front
is expected to push towards the East Coast on Monday, with high
pressure building in its wake across the Midwest. Another cold
front will drop into the north-central U.S. on Monday, resulting
in increasing precipitation chances for the region.

The ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast will be responsible for
creating dangerous heat over the South and Southeast through the
upcoming week. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 90s
to mid-100s, and overnight lows will remain relatively warm,
providing only minor relief from the heat. With the combination of
high humidity, heat indices may reach up to 115 degrees, resulting
in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk levels. Several
consecutive days of high heat stress can lead to heat-related
illness.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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