748 FXUS01 KWBC 111825 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 225 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 12 2026 - 00Z Tue Jul 14 2026 ...Repeated threats for strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding from the Central/Southern Plains eastward to the East-Central U.S into the weekend... ...Dangerous heat is forecast to build over portions of the north-central and western U.S. this weekend while the heat lingers over the Southeast... A frontal boundary extending from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic will gradually advance southward over the next couple of days. An anomalous plume of moisture to the south of the front will contribute to scattered to numerous thunderstorms, peaking in coverage during the afternoon to early overnight hours. The highest threat of heavy rain and severe weather today is expected to be from the Ozarks eastward into much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, where WPC is highlighting a broad area of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall together with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center. By Sunday, a high pressure system is forecast to build across the Northeast, which will begin to push the front farther south across the Mid-Atlantic states. A Slight risk of severe thunderstorms is highlighted across South Carolina into eastern Georgia on Sunday, along with a Slight risk of flash flooding across North Carolina into the southern Appalachians as a low pressure wave develops along the front. Looking ahead to Monday, isolated to scattered flash flooding chances will persist along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Combining with the severe storm threats will be above normal heat and humidity levels for parts of the Southeast. Heat index values of 105 to locally over 110 degrees will be possible for eastern portions of the Carolinas into Florida this afternoon, where numerous Heat Advisories are in effect. Some relief in the form of clouds and rain will decrease the hazardous heat on Sunday over the Carolinas but above average temperatures will continue over Florida. Farther west, from the Intermountain West to the Northern Plains, dangerous heat is expected to unfold through the weekend with triple digit highs and potential for daily maximum temperature records both days. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days with the greatest departures from average extending from central and eastern Montana into North Dakota. It is here where forecast highs on Sunday will range from 100 to 110 degrees (locally 110+ possible) which will be about 15 to 25 degrees above normal for mid-July. Even a few all-time high temperature records will be challenged on Sunday (such as the all-time high of 107 at Salt Lake City, UT, and 108 at Billings, MT). If you will be situated within any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and limit outdoor activities if possible. A cold front will begin to bring cooler air eastward from the Pacific Northwest into Montana later on Sunday into Monday, while anomalous heat intensifies over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest beyond Monday. Meanwhile, some monsoonal thunderstorms are expected for southern Arizona into New Mexico, which could lead to a few instances of flash flooding over the next several days. Asherman/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$