823 FXUS01 KWBC 300737 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026 ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains, Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Wednesday... ...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday... Meanwhile, upper-level energy and tropical moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf into the Southern Plains and Central Rockies/Central High Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Similarly, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. Considerable flash flooding is possible across portions of the Southern Plains and the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Locally, considerable flash flooding impacts are also possible across the broader Southern Plains. Locally, considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, is possible across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa on Wednesday. Flash, urban, and river flooding impacts may also be possible starting Wednesday across central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches, with locally higher totals, is expected, with the heaviest rain across the Southern Plains. Also, avoid travel through already flooded and vulnerable areas. Be especially cautious at night. If you encounter flooding while driving, â€turn around, donâ€t drown.†The threat of excessive rainfall continues into Thursday for the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains for Thursday. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, a cold front will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and rain into the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will also develop along parts of the Florida Coast and parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast on Thursday into Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$