662 
FXUS01 KWBC 131939
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 00Z Tue Jun 16 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and numerous instances of flash flooding are
expected to impact the Central U.S. today...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to end the weekend...

...Heat will build over the Pacific Northwest as much cooler air
surges into the mid-section of the country to end the heat in the
East...

The forecast remains on track for cool Canadian air to work its
way southward into the northern Plains, and eventually much of the
eastern two-thirds of the country by early next week. As the cool
air mass advances forward into the hot and humid pre-frontal air,
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large
hail, and tornadoes are expected to erupt and expand eastward
across the South-Central Plains toward the Midwest today and into
tonight. In addition, locally a few inches of heavy rain can be
expected with these thunderstorms, leading to a Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall across portions of the Ozarks today. These
severe storms are expected to lose intensity by Sunday morning as
they advance farther to the south toward the Southern Plains.

By Sunday, a low pressure wave developing along the cold front
will likely trigger additional strong to severe thunderstorms from
the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and through lower Great Lakes. 
Increasingly southerly wind ahead of the cold front will try to
send heat and humidity up the East Coast once again on Sunday with
high temperatures soaring to near 100 degrees in central North
Carolina. The heat and humidity will aid the production of
additional strong to severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Northeast later on Sunday ahead of the cold front with the
intensifying low pressure wave. Damaging winds appear to be the
main concern with this episode of strong to severe thunderstorms
on Sunday. By Monday morning, the cold front is forecast to move
off the New England coast as the refreshingly cool air from Canada
will drop temperatures into the 40s and 50s across the Northern
and Central U.S. by Monday morning.

Elsewhere, a round of generally light rainfall associated with the
western end of the cold front is expected to gradually taper off
over the northern High Plains.  Meanwhile, monsoonal showers are
forecast to emerge over the Four Corners and Southern Rockies
later today.  The Desert Southwest and the Central Valley of
California will remain hot, with highs in the 110s and 100s,
respectively. Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to
build, with record-high temperatures potentially reaching into the
80s and lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Farther east, the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will not be as hot today behind a
leading front. However, the South remains hot and humid as the
front will become nearly stationary. From Sunday into Monday, the
South is expected to remain under the threat of showers and
thunderstorms along with a threat of heavy rain from the southern
High Plains through northern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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