998 FXUS01 KWBC 100810 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 10 2025 - 12Z Tue Aug 12 2025 ...Repeated rounds of heavy rain likely to produce instances of flash flooding from the central Plains to the Midwest... ...Severe thunderstorms pose a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes from the central High Plains to the Midwest through tonight... ...Elevated risk of fire weather persists across parts of the Four Corners... A slow-moving frontal boundary extending across the central Plains through the Midwest will be the focus for additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy downpours over the next couple of days. Periodic ejections of upper-level disturbances from the central Rockies will provide the dynamics for the development and maintenance of thunderstorm complexes that can quickly turn severe, particularly from parts of eastern Colorado to the central Plains and the Midwest today into tonight. The most severe storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds, with an isolated tornado or two not ruled out either. As clusters of storms merge and track over the same locations, the cumulative effects of heavy rain will lead to numerous instances of flash flooding over the next couple of days. The slow and chaotic movement of these storm clusters combined with intense rainfall rates over saturated grounds will mean that any flash flooding will have the heightened potential to produce significant impacts. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for this general area, with a Moderate Risk embedded across eastern Kansas into Missouri through Monday morning. Remember, have a plan before venturing out and be aware of alternate routes in case you encounter flooded roadways. As always, Turn Around, Don't Drown! Meanwhile, another nearly stationary frontal boundary will be associated with the potential of flood-producing heavy rains across the southeastern U.S. through the next couple of days. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the Atlantic coast where moisture from the Atlantic converges. Scattered thunderstorms will also skirt the coasts of the Florida Peninsula and across northern Florida. Across the southern Rockies, some monsoonal moisture will keep a threat of isolated flooding due to the development of scattered thunderstorms which will be most active during the late afternoon into the evening hours through the next couple of days. Heat and humidity will remain in place ahead of the aforementioned slow-moving front, in contrast with much cooler air behind the front from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains to the central High Plains through early next week. Across the Great Lakes, New England, and the Northeast, high temperatures well into the 80s to as high as the mid-90s are forecast to continue for the next couple of days. The Southeast should remain somewhat cooler than average due to the prevalence of clouds and scattered showers/thunderstorms. A risk of elevated fire weather conditions is expected to continue for portions of the Four Corners region. Strong daytime heating and solar insolation will result in the efficient mixing of gusty winds aloft to the surface each afternoon and evening. The gusty winds in conjunction with dry fuels and relative humidities in the single digits and teens will lead to near critical fire weather conditions and the potential for new fire starts or existing fires to spread rapidly. Kong/Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$