060 
FXUS01 KWBC 131856
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 14 2026 - 00Z Thu Jul 16 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the northern Plains
to the upper Midwest, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday...

...Threat of heavy rain abates across the southern Appalachians to
the Carolinas; significant heavy rainfall likely over the Hill
Country and Big Bend regions of Texas...

A strong upper-level high, responsible for several all-time high
temperature records in the West yesterday, is forecast to build
eastward across the northern tier states over the next few days.
This will yield record-breaking high temperatures of 95 to 105
across the northern Plains and Midwest through midweek, which also
spreads over the Great Lakes and Northeast on Tuesday. Extreme
Heat Warnings remain in effect across a large portion of the Great
Basin through the northern Plains as Heat Advisories are posted
for areas farther east into New England. If you will be situated
within any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat,
stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and limit outdoor activities
if possible. A cold front will draw slightly cooler air eastward
from the Pacific Northwest into Montana and North Dakota over the
next couple of days, dropping high temperatures into the upper 80s
and 90s.

South of this anomalous upper high, a front is forecast to remain
nearly stationary through the southern Plains, the Deep South and
the Southeast.  Upper-level disturbances will then interact with
the wavy stationary front to produce repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across this corridor of the southern U.S.
Meanwhile, the heavy rain threat across the southern Appalachians
and Southeast will gradually abate as drier air filters in from
the north. Near the western end of the front, a significant heavy
rainfall event is expected across the Texas Hill Country and Big
Bend over the next three days as thunderstorms repeatedly focus
over this region. The latest rainfall forecast calls for storm
total rainfall amounts of 6-8" through Wednesday evening, which
could lead to dangerous flash flooding as soils in the area become
increasingly inundated. 

Meanwhile, the forecast remains on track for an influx of
monsoonal moisture to drive an uptick in daytime thunderstorms
over portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A few
instances of flash flooding and severe weather are possible in the
strongest storms through midweek.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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