470 
FXUS01 KWBC 210607
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 21 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 23 2026

...Record-breaking heat wave continues in the West and intensifies
in the central U.S. today...

...Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of
the Four Corners region, central and southern Rockies, and Great
Plains...

...Wintry weather expected from the northern Great Lakes to New
England...

Strong upper level ridging remains in place over the western and
central U.S., which will allow the record-breaking heat wave to
continue while intensifying in the central U.S. today. The highest
temperature anomalies are expected to shift into the Plains, where
high temperatures are forecast reach the 80s and 90s, 30-40
degrees above average for this time of year. The Southwest can
expected temperatures to once again reach the 90s and 100s this
afternoon, which are about 20-30 degrees above average. Numerous
daily and monthly temperature records have already been broken,
and additional records are expected to be broken today. The early
time of year, prolonged nature of this heat wave, and limited
seasonal acclimation will increase the risk of heat impacts
especially among sensitive populations or those without effective
cooling. Adjust plans to limit strenuous outdoor activities to
early morning hours, drink plenty of fluids, and seek air
conditioned spaces.

Some relief from the heat is expected on Sunday as a cold front
pushes south across the Northwest, northern Rockies, and
northern/central Plains. By Monday, this frontal boundary should
sink south across the southern Plains, but the tail end of the
boundary will likely stall across the Great Basin. This will keep
the Southwest on the warm side of the boundary and allow the heat
wave to continue into early next week. Precipitation chances will
be limited with this frontal boundary, but some light to moderate
showers will be possible from the Northwest to the northern Plains
through tonight.

The frontal boundary is expected to bring strong gusty winds to
much of the Intermountain West and Great Plains as it passes,
which will combine with very low relative humidity values,
anomalously warm temperatures, and dry fuels to create Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions. The environment will be
favorable for extreme fire behavior and rapid fire spread.
Conditions will improve slightly on Sunday, but Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions will persist for the southern
Plains.

In the East, a cold front will be moving offshore this morning,
with isolated showers tapering off across the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure is expected to track from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast today through Sunday, with wintry
mixed precipitation across the northern Great Lakes today and New
England tonight into Sunday. This system will push a cold front
south across the eastern U.S. Sunday into Monday, which will be
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to
the Mid-Atlantic, with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms
possible on Sunday.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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