212 FXUS01 KWBC 010743 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 242 AM EST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 ...A return to a wet weather pattern for the West coast to begin 2026... ...Much above average temperatures to stretch from the Northern Rockies, through the Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, while below average temperatures expected from the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast... ...Active Lake Effect snows Thursday into Friday downwind of Erie, Ontario and eastern Superior... After a brief dry period along the West coast to end 2025, 2026 will see the re-establishment of a wet weather pattern for much of the West coast. A lead mid to upper level trof will move into central California Thursday, followed by a much stronger system strengthening off the northern California/Pacific Northwest coast Friday and Saturday. There is the potential for heavy rains along the entire California Coast Ranges and through the Sierra Thursday, posing the risks of flooding across areas that have seen much above average precipitation over the past few weeks. For Thursday, the greatest risk of flooding will be across Southern California where soil moisture remains high from very heavy rains that occurred during the Christmas holiday. Flood watches are currently in effect across portions of Southern California. There will be a brief respite to heavy rains across California early Friday before the strengthening storm off the Northern California/Pacific Northwest coast sends additional heavy precipitation into Central to Northern California and southwest Oregon late Friday into early Saturday, with an increasing flood risk for northwest California at this time. The New Year will start out relatively warm from the West Coast, east through the Rockies and into the Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The most anomalous warmth expected across the Plains where high temperatures Thursday and Friday are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average. Colder than average temperatures will be confined to the Upper Mississippi Valley, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A reinforcing show of cold air is currently pressing eastward from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast supporting the aforementioned below average temperatures. There is the potential early Thursday morning for snow squalls along this front, producing a brief period of white out conditions and very hazardous travel across the Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. More persistent lake effect snow showers are likely Thursday into Friday downwind of lake Erie, Ontario and the eastern portion of Lake Superior. This will support very heavy snow potential across far northwest Pennsylvania, far western New York State and portions of northwest New York State and over the eastern portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Across these areas, Lake Effect Warnings and Winter Storm warnings are in effect. Happy New Year! Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$