030 
FXUS01 KWBC 050759
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...Lingering moderate to heavy rainfall for California today with
an isolated risk for flash flooding; another system to bring heavy
precipitation to Pacific Northwest Tuesday...

...A couple rounds of wintry precipitation from the Upper Midwest
to New England the next couple of days...

...Well above average conditions begin to expand eastward from the
Plains to the East Coast this week; Wildfire risk for portions of
the southern High Plains Monday...

Broad upper-troughing with embedded upper-energies will keep
precipitation in the forecast for the West Coast as well as into
much of the Interior West to start the week. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue across portions of northern and central
California Monday as another influx of Pacific moisture will bring
the threat for some additional isolated instances of flash
flooding. Heavy snow will also continue for portions of the
northern Sierra and other ranges in the far northern parts of the
state, but will trend downward this evening and come to an end
into Tuesday. An upper-wave to the east will also continue to
bring heavy snowfall to the mountain ranges of the
northern/central Rockies and eastern Great Basin Monday. Yet
another Pacific system will approach the Pacific Northwest by
early Tuesday bringing moderate rainfall to the coast/lower
elevations and very heavy snow to the Cascades and Olympics, where
total snowfall will be as much as 2-3 feet. Moisture will spread
inland into the day Tuesday and through the overnight hours
bringing additional heavy snow to the northern Rockies as well.

A similar pattern of energetic and progressive upper-flow to the
east is leading to a couple rounds of wintry precipitation from
the Upper Midwest to New England the next couple of days. Snow
showers will accompany one upper-wave passing over Upstate New
York/New England today. Generally light accumulations are
expected, though some more moderate totals will be possible
downwind of Lake Ontario and for higher elevations. Another
upper-wave to the west will bring the threat of potentially
impactful icing to the Upper Midwest beginning Monday evening,
with a swath of accretions upwards of 0.1-0.25 inches possible
from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. This threat will
expand eastward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
Tuesday, with additional potentially impactful icing, as well as
some light snowfall for interior New England. Scattered rain
showers are expected to the south from the Ohio Valley east
through the Appalachians     

Above average conditions will not only continue for a broad swath
of the country, including the Interior West to the Plains and into
the Southeast, but will also expand into the Midwest Monday and
eventually the Northeast Tuesday-Wednesday, where conditions have
been chilly and well below average. The greatest anomalies will be
focused on the central/southern Plains Monday, and will spread
eastward towards the Mississippi Valley Tuesday, with temperatures
as much as 30-40 degrees above average and a handful of
record-tying/breaking highs possible. Forecast highs the next
couple of days generally range in the 30s and 40s for the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, the 40s and 50s for the
Interior West, the 50s and 60s for the Middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys, and the 60s and 70s for the central/southern Plains and
Southeast. Gusty, warm and dry downsloping winds east of the
Rockies will bring a threat for wildfires to portions of the
southern High Plains Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of the Texas Panhandle with a Critical Risk
of fire weather (level 2/3) within a broader Elevated Risk (level
1/3) for the region. The Mid-Atlantic will remain chillier Monday,
with highs in the 30s and 40s, but will warm into the 40s and 50s
Tuesday. New England will also remain very cold Monday, with highs
in the teens and 20s, but progressively warm into the 20s and 30s
Tuesday with 40s possible by Wednesday. The West Coast will be a
bit below average, with highs mostly in the 40s and 50s for the
Pacific Northwest and 50s and 60s for California.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$