283 
FXUS01 KWBC 170632
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central and Southern California Coast...

...Snow and rain/freezing rain across the Upper Midwest...

...Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains...

An deep upper-level trough remains over the West, with embedded
energy driving moisture transport onshore across western U.S. The
shortwave will continue to stream Pacific moisture into West Coast
and Intermountain West on Tuesday. Although the heavier rainfall
have diminished, the cold front and shortwave energy dives
southward along the West Coast and will bring renewed rainfall
with generally 1-2" over lower elevations and 2-4" over higher
elevations over parts of central and southern California. This
will create a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and flash
flooding over the area, especially over burn scars. In addition to
the rainfall, snow chances will remain elevated over Pacific
Northwest, Intermountain West, and California mountain ranges,
with heaviest accumulations of 12" or more over higher peaks of
the Sierra and Cascade through Thursday. Several areas across
western U.S. have issued Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories
through Wednesday.

Over the Plains into the Midwest, frontal boundaries and moisture
return will support chances for rain and snow Tuesday evening. On
Wednesday, the low pressure system will accumulate higher amounts
of mixed precipiation over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as it
continues to move eastward into Mississippi/Ohio Valley. The
surface low will slowly move into the Northeast by Wednesday into
Thursday with a elongated trough that extends into the
Mid-Atlantic. This will bringing chances for rain and
high-elevation snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Thursday.

Above-normal temperatures will continue across portions of the
Plains into the East Coast with temperatures between 15-30 degrees
above normal through Wednesday, but near normal to slightly below
normal temperatures start to push into parts of the Plains by
Thursday. Across western U.S., temperatures will trend cooler with
10-25 degrees below normal. Over into the Northern Rockies/Plains,
temperatures start to enter the teens with some areas seeing
single digits on Wednesday into Thursday. 

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$