206 FXUS01 KWBC 201922 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Valid 00Z Thu May 21 2026 - 00Z Sat May 23 2026 ...Severe weather will threaten portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England going through this evening, along with southwest Texas going into the overnight hours... ...Flash flooding will be a concern across portions southwest Texas, including the Hill Country, along with areas of the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys going through early Thursday... ...Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible over the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley later Thursday through Friday... ...Below normal temperatures over the Midwest and Great Lakes will spread into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the end of the week... An upper-level trough of low pressure moving through southeast Canada will continue to help allow a slow-moving cold front to settle across the southern and eastern U.S. as a much cooler area of high pressure overspreads the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This cooler high pressure will gradually nose into the Northeast, but the front should generally become draped and quasi-stationary from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic region through the end of the week. Multiple waves of low pressure lifting northeast along the front will favor regional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of producing severe weather and areas of flash flooding. The cold front initially will bring a threat for some severe weather to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England going through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted this region with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather with damaging winds and some large hail possible. A generally isolated threat of flash flooding will exist, especially back across the Ohio Valley, where enough rainfall is expected to draw a concern for some localized runoff problems. However, most of this region is currently experiencing a drought and thus the rainfall is expected to be largely beneficial. Meanwhile, the southwest portion of this front will impact the southern Plains through the Mid-South through tonight, and there will be clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with concerns especially across southwest Texas for severe weather and flash flooding. This will include areas of the Texas Hill Country where the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Many areas from the southern Plains through the Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region will stay unsettled through the end of the week as the front becomes quasi-stationary and multiple waves of low pressure ride northeast it along. More beneficial rains can be expected from clusters of showers and thunderstorms, but there will be a threat for some additional areas of flash flooding across parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will mostly be below normal across these areas due to clouds and rain, but also the impact of cool high pressure over the Midwest and Great Lakes will keep temperatures much cooler than they have been recently and especially over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Elsewhere, another upper trough from western Canada will dip into the northern Rockies, bringing a broadening area of rain and high-elevation snow across northern Rockies into the northern High Plains tonight through Thursday. Going into Friday, this upper trough will interact with energy over the southern Plains to expand the threat for rain and some thunderstorms to the central High Plains. Conversely, milder and drier conditions are expected along the West Coast and most of the Great Basin where temperatures will be warming through the end of the week and should trend well above normal by this weekend. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$