951 
FXUS01 KWBC 040734
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026

...There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday and the Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday and Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday/Monday...

A front extending from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and then
northwestward into the Northern Plains will  move slowly southward
and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio Valley, and the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains, then northward over the
Northern Plains by Monday. The system will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
the Mid-Atlantic. The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning and severe thunderstorm wind gusts.

In addition, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern High Plains through
Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. 

Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over most of
the Eastern third of the country on Saturday.

On Sunday, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning
and severe thunderstorm wind gusts. The WPC has also issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas
that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Similarly, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over most of the eastern third of
the country from Sunday into Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a second front moves onshore over the Northwest on
Saturday and then moves inland to the Northern Plains,
southwestward into the Great Basin by Monday morning. The boundary
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
High Plains, the Northern Intermountain Region, and parts of
Washington State on Sunday evening into Monday. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf
Coast and Florida through Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$