484 FXUS01 KWBC 102007 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 00Z Mon May 11 2026 - 00Z Wed May 13 2026 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours and slight risk of flash flooding across the southern Plains through tonight... ...Record-challenging heat develops across the Desert Southwest and interior valleys of California expanding into the Great Basin on Tuesday... ...A couple more nights of frost/freeze expected across the northern tier states... As a cold front continues to advance through the southern Plains, more organized clusters and bands of thunderstorms are expected to impact the region through tonight. The Storm Prediction Center is maintaining an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across north-central Texas with a slight risk extending across the Arklatex into early on Monday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, the heavy downpours associated with these thunderstorms could lead to localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The Weather Prediction Center is maintaining a slight risk of flash flooding across north-central Texas into tonight. Farther up along the cold front, areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected to extend across the Mid-Atlantic to New England into this evening, and then from the east-central U.S. to Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The trailing portion of the front will move off the Gulf Coast where a marginal threat of heavy rain is forecast for Monday. A high pressure system will then build across the South on Tuesday, allowing cooler and drier air to overspread the Gulf Coast states. Across the upper Midwest, another night of frost/freeze is anticipated for tonight as a cool high pressure system continues to build in from Canada. The high will bring frost/freeze for portions of the Great Lakes to interior New England into Tuesday morning before moderating. The moderating temperatures will reach the northern Plains on Monday as a warm front approaches. A cold front will quickly follow, dropping the temperatures in the northern Plains on Tuesday. Meanwhile, showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to move across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the region. In contrast to the frost and freeze across the northern tier states, a persistent ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the western U.S. for the next few days with dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. In fact, heat will progressively build under this ridge across the Southwest where triple-digit heat could break some daily records across the Desert Southwest and interior California especially on Monday. By Tuesday, the potential of record daily high temperatures are forecast to spread into the interior western U.S. with 90s reaching as far north as Idaho. Across the Sunshine state, heat and humidity across portions of South Florida and the Keys will bring elevated heat risk through the next couple of days. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$