046 
FXUS01 KWBC 042000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 05 2023 - 00Z Sat Oct 07 2023

...Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding likely
through tonight from north-central Texas to southwest Arkansas...

...Threat of locally heavy rain returns to the Interior Northeast
by Friday...

...Cooler temperatures behind a potent cold front forecast to
expand across the central and eastern United States by the end of
the week...

A strong autumn cold front traversing most of the Nation through
the end of this week will be responsible for active weather for
some and a stark pattern change for others. Starting in the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, numerous ongoing and
developing thunderstorms through tonight are expected to
potentially produce areas of severe weather and heavy rain.
Multiple rounds of heavy rain culminating with a strong line of
robust thunderstorms pushing towards the southeast across Texas
tonight will lead to several inches of storm total rainfall.
Intense rain rates associated with these storms could overlap with
earlier rainfall to likely produce instances of flash flooding
from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex. A
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect
for this region, including over 8 million residents. With much of
the southern Plains experiencing severe to exceptional drought
conditions, urban regions and areas under longer duration heavy
rainfall are most likely to be impacted by rapid water rises and
street flooding. Additionally, developing thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening are anticipated to produce very large hail
and significant severe wind gusts, along with possibly a couple
tornadoes. This severe threat extends from the Rolling Plains of
Texas to the central Red River Valley of the South, where an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms has been issued
by the Storm Prediction Center. These storms are expected to sink
southward and weaken over South Texas on Thursday, with an
isolated flash flooding threat remaining.

By Friday, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to approach
the Northeast after spreading scattered showers and storms across
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Thursday. Locally heavy rain may
accompany the cold front and produce isolated instances of flash
flooding from western Pennsylvania to central Connecticut,
including much of New York State. This system is also expected to
strengthen and potentially produce additional flooding impacts
throughout the Interior Northeast and New England by Saturday.

The other aspect of this weather system that many are likely to
find as a welcome change will be the entrance of below average and
crisp fall temperatures. These fall-like temperatures will start
in the northern Plains on Thursday and overspread much of the
Great Plains and Midwest by Friday. Well above average to
potentially record-breaking temperatures over the Northeast today
will come to a gradual end on Thursday and Friday as cloud cover
and rain potential spreads east, with much cooler conditions on
the horizon for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this upcoming
weekend.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$