503 FXUS01 KWBC 141820 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 00Z Wed Jun 17 2026 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast later today and through tonight... ...Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall for South Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow and Tuesday... ...Heat will build over the Pacific Northwest as much cooler air surges into the mid-section of the country to end the heat in the East... A weather pattern favoring cold air intrusions from Canada will bring refreshingly cool air to replace the heat and humidity across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country during the next couple of days. However, this process will also lead to formation of showers and thunderstorms with possible severe weather and flooding rainfall. This afternoon, southerly winds pulling a warm and humid airmass northward will aid the production of strong to severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast later today ahead of a cold front as a low pressure wave intensifies. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern with this episode of strong to severe thunderstorms. By tomorrow morning, the front is forecast to clear the Northeast, while simultaneously stalling out over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will set the stage for a prolonged episode of heavy rainfall from South Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley as the weakening front interacts with a moisture-laden disturbance emerging out of northeast Mexico. Through the next 3 days, areal rainfall totals of 4-6" (locally even higher) can be expected across this area, which will support daily chances of scattered to numerous flash floods, some of which could be significant. Elsewhere, monsoonal showers across the Four Corners and Southern Rockies will be most active later today but should become less active with time tomorrow. Temperature wise, a few record high temperatures are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon before cooler than normal temperatures arrive on Monday. Meanwhile, the cold front is forecast to drop morning temperatures into the 40s and 50s across the Northern and Central U.S., which will eventually spread into New England on Tuesday. The Desert Southwest and the Central Valley of California will remain hot, with highs in the 110s and 100s, respectively. Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to peak today and Monday, with record-high temperatures reaching the 80s and as high as the mid-90s before cooling off on Tuesday. Asherman/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$