994 FXUS02 KWBC 062030 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 ...Overview... A split upper flow pattern will be in place at the start of the medium range period on Monday, with a southern stream low over northern Mexico and ridging farther north across the Rockies/Plains, and troughing in the East providing one more day of chilly temperatures. The pattern is forecast to translate eastward, with the ridge bringing much above average temperatures to the central U.S., and temperature moderation into the East as the week progresses. Precipitation will spread across portions of the West into early next week after a dry January. Meanwhile, rain is forecast across the south-central U.S. Monday-Tuesday, spreading east into the Ohio Valley toward the East Tuesday-midweek. Then additional troughing may move into the West and bring renewed moisture. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show good enough agreement with the southern stream upper low over northern Mexico on Monday and as it shifts eastward and weakens, becoming absorbed by the larger scale flow, by Tuesday-Wednesday to use a multi-model blend of guidance despite detail issues with sensible weather. There is also some variability in the timing of northern stream shortwaves through the north-central U.S. and Great Lakes, but a general model blend seems to work as a good starting point. Bigger questions arise by Wednesday and beyond as deeper troughing develops off the West Coast. Recent trends had been for a slower upper low to split into the southern stream well west of the coast, especially in the GFS/EC/AIFS with the CMC farther east. But the new 12Z guidance kind of bucked that trend and shows a trend farther east. This is especially true for the 12Z ECMWF that shows more phasing with the northern stream and the energy reaching southern California by early Thursday. The 12Z GFS/AIFS/AI-GFS/CMC are better aligned with an eastward position compared to the 00Z guidance, but not as far east as the EC. In any case, had blended in some ensemble means to about half by late period but additional changes to the forecast may be needed. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday will help spread precipitation across the Intermountain West early in the week. A weak atmospheric river should reach California by late Monday into Tuesday and bring light to moderate coastal rain and Sierra Nevada snow. Precipitation in the interior West may start tapering off midweek, but Western troughing could spread some precipitation into the Southwest and potentially the Central U.S. Thursday into Friday. Energy in the northern Plains could spread light precipitation there into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast across Texas early week. As its supporting shortwave gets absorbed and a front moves slowly through the Ohio Valley, this should focus precipitation in that vicinity by around Tuesday and potentially reaching the East midweek. Some mixed precipitation and snow are possible across the northern part of the precipitation shield with details of wintry precipitation still very uncertain. As the trough exits the region, one more day of well below normal temperatures is likely through Monday across the Northeast before moderation by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the northern stream ridge traversing from the interior West to the central and eastern U.S. will produce well above normal temperatures. The Plains will see the greatest anomalies of 20-30 degrees above normal for early February, locally even higher. This puts highs in the 60s well north into South Dakota Monday. Temperatures may moderate some as the week progresses, but still generally at or slightly above normal. Warmer than average temperatures will also expand across the South to the Southeast and into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Tate/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$