117 FXUS02 KWBC 091900 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026 ...Overview... The upper level pattern will feature mean troughing over the West and ridging over the East next week, which will result in active weather across the central U.S. and unsettled weather across much of the West. Severe weather, heavy rainfall, and high wind threats are expected from the southern Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, and heavy snow will be possible in the high elevations of the West. ....Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale weather pattern through much of next week, with an expected amount of uncertainty in the smaller scale features. An upper level shortwave will eject across the central U.S. ahead of an energetic upper low/trough moving onshore in California on Sunday. The low/trough will gradually push across the western U.S. early next week, then quickly life northeast across the central U.S. as the next upper low/trough drops into the Pacific Northwest. There is some uncertainty in the speed of the upper low/trough moving across the central U.S., which will affect sensible weather across the Plains and Midwest next week. The ECMWF is on the slower end of guidance, though not unreasonably slow, but a faster solution looks most likely and is supported by the GFS, CMC, EC- AIFS, and AI-GFS. A near even blend of the available deterministic guidance provided a good starting point for the WPC forecast, and ensemble means from the CMCE, GEFS, and ECENS were added in increasing amounts Tuesday through Thursday to help smooth out model differences. This forecast maintains good continuity with the previous WPC forecast and with the National Blend of Models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A closed Pacific upper low/trough will push a surface system inland over the Southwest/southern Great Basin this weekend as another energetic system dives south along the West Coast. The leading system will eject northeastward over the north-central U.S. on Sunday and enhance winds and precipitation chances across the region. The second system will drive a stronger frontal system across the western U.S. that will bring widespread precipitation chances, including rain and mountain snow, through Monday. Conditions will be favorable for heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada with anomalous moisture and strong upslope forcing in place. Early next week, the strong frontal system will emerge in the Plains and bring heavy snow and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the West Monday night into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough approaches from the north. Downstream, moist southerly return flow and instability from the Gulf will prime the atmosphere from the southern Plains to the Midwest for heavy rain and severe weather this weekend into next week. The heaviest rainfall is expected to impact the southern Plains this weekend, and a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in place for Sunday. Additional flooding concerns may be possible as the next system brings repeated rounds of precipitation to the southern Plains, and heavy precipitation potential is also expected to expand northeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes. These frontal systems will likely support severe weather threats through mid-next week from the southern Plains to the Midwest, as per the Storm Prediction Center. This weather pattern will favor cooler temperatures under the upper trough in the West and warmer temperatures under the upper ridge in the East/Southeast. High temperature anomalies of 15-25 degrees above average are expected to spread from the central/southern Plains to the Midwest and Great Lakes by Monday and to the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast by Wednesday. Dolan/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$