806 FXUS02 KWBC 121837 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 237 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 19 2026 ...Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the Plains next week... ...General Overview... An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place for the middle to end of the week across the Continental U.S., with an upper ridge situated across the East Coast states, and another trough building in across the West. Multiple impulses will eject eastward across the Plains and provide forcing for episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures will be commonplace across the eastern half of the country with highs well into the 80s and lower-mid 90s for the second half of the week, while snow is likely across the central and northern Rockies. A cold front will approach the Eastern U.S. by next Sunday with a return to more seasonable temperatures after that. ....Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest model guidance shows good agreement on the overall pattern evolution during the upcoming medium range period, but plenty of uncertainty in the details and timing of individual systems. The first half of the period features a stronger shortwave lifting through the Plains into the Great Lakes, and a general deterministic model blend worked as a good starting point. By Friday, the next system will eject out of the Rockies and the guidance shows more variability on the timing and orientation of this. While not substantial at synoptic scale, these differences do have more influence on the smaller scale sensible weather grids, including QPF amounts and distribution across the Plains. Guidance shows another shortwave or upper low approaching the Northwest next weekend with some timing uncertainties. Increased the weighting of the ensemble means to half the blend by Day 7/Sunday to help mitigate some of these differences. The 13z NBM was again a very good starting point for the sensible weather grid forecast through the period. The only notable edits needed was to increase daytime temperatures across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic where there is stronger support for highs above NBM guidance. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An active weather pattern remains across the Central U.S. through the middle to end of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states, given favorable wind shear and instability parameters. The moisture will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and ahead of the ejecting trough from the Rockies. A Marginal Risk area remains from central Texas to the Upper Great Lakes for Wednesday/Day 4 where a few mesoscale convective systems are possible. The guidance indicates a decrease in activity for Thursday/Day 5, so no risk areas are currently depicted for that day, but a renewed heavy rainfall and severe weather threat is possible going into Friday and Saturday ahead of the stronger cold front. Out West, an amplifying shortwave and associated cold front will bring a renewed round of coastal rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest into Wednesday, with potentially 1-2+ feet of snow for the Cascades. This moisture then moves inland across the northern Rockies through the middle of the week, with moderate to locally heavy snow from northern Idaho to northwestern Wyoming. Lighter snows will be possible across the higher terrain of Utah and Colorado. Gusty winds may also be possible for parts of the Rockies into the Plains with the frontal passage. Temperatures will also be making weather headlines across much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s for many areas, and even some lower-middle 90s across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the early season heatwave reaches it peak. This equates to widespread moderate to local major HeatRisk, with numerous daily record highs likely, especially Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a slight cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid- Atlantic, but remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. A more substantial cool down comes by late next Sunday as the strong cold front from the Plains approaches the East Coast states. Out West, readings should generally be near to below average with the upper trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation. Santorelli/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$