993 FXUS02 KWBC 071941 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 241 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 ...Overview... A deepened closed trough/low will progress through the eastern half of the country this weekend, with an associated deepening low pressure system tracking eastward from the Great Lakes and a strong cold front working through the East/South. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible along the frontal boundary on Saturday, with moderately heavy snowfall likely on the backside of the low from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes where enhanced lake effect activity will also flourish in the cold wake of system passage. Ahead of the front, record temperatures are possible into Saturday for parts of the East. Once the front clears the East Coast this weekend, much of the country will be dry Sunday into next week underneath sprawling high pressure, but expect renewed rainfall to the Pacific Northwest. Expect warm conditions as an upper ridge builds over the West, while pressure gradients favor enhancing winds for southern California/vicinity to monitor. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Medium-range model and ensemble solution clustering has improved significantly over the past day, bolstering mid-larger scale forecast confidence despite recent run-run continuity issues that continue to affect local timing and focus. A composite blend of GFS/ECMWF/Canadian based models and ensemble means seems prudent for this scenario and seems to provide a solid forecast basis with local detail as consistent with individual system predictability. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Lingering deepened Gulf moisture (with highly anomalous values above the 95th percentile) will stream ahead of the central to eastern U.S. trough to produce widespread rain ahead of a strong frontal boundary as it pushes through the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and East Coast states into Saturday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible, but the front should be progressive enough with drier antecedent conditions to preclude any risk areas on the Day 4 ERO at this time. Precipitation should clear the coast by Sunday, with some possible showers lingering across Florida. On the cold side of this system, there signal is growing for accumulating snow from the Upper Midwest to the northern Great Lakes into Saturday with 4+ inches of snow possible in some locations. Lake effect snows will continue into Sunday downwind of favorable locations. After this though, much of the country by early next week will be mainly dry with the exception of western Washington in favorable deep layered southerly flow nudging into the region and possibly parts of the Southern Plains contingent on induced return flow by southern stream trough energy. Temperatures will be well above average through Saturday across the eastern states with record daytime highs and warm overnight lows possible. Temperatures will return to normal following the frontal passage and may be slightly below normal for some places. Meanwhile the West/Southwest may start below normal, but will trend warmer with time as a ridge develops over much of the region. Guidance trends show that this ridge map prove sluggish to build and be maintained into the north-central U.S., but should bring a return of above to above normal temperatures into early next week. Santorelli/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$