357 FXUS02 KWBC 141726 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 126 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 21 2026 ...Hot across the East Coast and more heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Plains and Midwest to close out the work week... ...General Overview... An anomalous upper level ridge will be in place across the Eastern U.S. for the end of the week, accompanied by additional daily record high temperatures in many places from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. A lead shortwave crossing the Northeast will put a dent in this ridge, followed by a much stronger trough/cold front by Sunday that will bring the early season heatwave to an end. This same storm system will likely generate multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains and Midwest, followed by a return to more typical April conditions after a week of June and July type weather. A new storm system from the Pacific is likely to affect the West Coast region by Sunday into Monday with renewed prospects for rain and mountain snow across much of the region. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance remains in generally good agreement through the early portion of the period, with deterministic solutions and ensemble means depicting a similar large-scale pattern across CONUS. There is some smaller scale differences with a shortwave trough over the Northeast, as the GFS seems to reflect a ridge building instead. In addition, the UKMET seemed to be noticeably slower than the other models with the trough over Eastern U.S. By late weekend into early next week, the spread begins to increase, particularly with respect to the evolution and timing of the trough/low pressure system off East Pacific. ECMWF seems to be the outlier where it progresses the trough much faster than the CMC and GFS. There is also some uncertainty within the models as the run- to-run variability increases for Sunday and Monday. Therefore, the NBM will be used for the start of the period, then incorporating much more of the ensemble means for the remainder of the period to account for the differences. In addition, the NBM seemed to under-perform for the warming trend over Mid- Atlantic/Southeast heading into the weekend, therefore a multi- model blend was useful to raising the temperatures. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The lead shortwave trough crossing the Ohio Valley on Thursday is expected to be accompanied by a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. The larger scale trough and front approaching the Midwest on Day 4/Friday will have enough dynamics and instability to support more widespread convective coverage and heavy rainfall from eastern Kansas to the greater Chicago metro area, and given a better model signal for potential convective training and heavier rainfall, a Slight Risk area will be valid from northern Missouri to southwestern Wisconsin for Friday. A Marginal Risk area will be valid for Day 5/Saturday across portions of the south-central U.S. where convection develops ahead of the cold front. Winter weather will continue to make weather headlines across the higher terrain of the western U.S. in two distinct rounds. The trough exiting the northern Rockies will support some lingering snow from northern Utah/Colorado northward to western Montana Friday, and some lighter snows for portions of the Dakotas. There will be a break in the action until late Saturday when the next storm system arrives in the Pacific Northwest. This is forecast to produce additional snow for the Cascades and extending to the northern Sierra by Monday morning, and showers for the lower elevations and near the coast. The anomalous and record breaking April heatwave will still be ongoing Friday across the Eastern U.S., with the greatest anomalies expected from western New York to Georgia on Saturday. Widespread lower to even middle 90s are expected Friday across the lower elevations of the Carolinas, which could set additional daily records and perhaps come close to some monthly records. This also holds true going into Saturday as well, although northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic should get a modest cooling trend with a weak frontal boundary dropping south. More substantial relief comes by Sunday as a strong cold front steadily makes its way to the East Coast, with the hottest conditions mainly confined to the Piedmont and coastal plain of Virginia and the Carolinas, and then pleasantly cooler by Monday with the front exiting the coast. Oudit/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$