076 FXUS02 KWBC 212004 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 304 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 ...Significant winter storm expected from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic bringing widespread heavy snow and ice impacts... ...Hazardous cold is expected for much of the central and eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week... ...Overview... Broad upper troughing associated with a major arctic outbreak is forecast to persist across the eastern half of the country through early next week. At the surface, an arctic high pressure system will bring dangerously cold temperatures to much of the central and eastern U.S.. An upper low moving into the Southwest will interact with northern stream energy diving south out of Canada Friday into this weekend. This system will override the arctic airmass while also ingesting Gulf moisture, resulting in widespread significant snow and ice across the southern tier of the country into the Mid- Atlantic and portions of the Northeast. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences in the details persist. The most notable question deals with the degree of interaction between the southern stream and northern stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of the resultant phased trough. More/earlier interaction and a stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging and thus an overall storm track farther north. Latest guidance from this morning and afternoon do continue to show this farther north scenario compared to just a day ago. Confidence in this northward shift has increased slightly today, given the 12z guidance coming in close to prior 00z guidance. But there is still plenty of time for things to shift again (whether further north or back south). But we may be starting to see some better consolidation in the forecast and less run to run swings. Despite this, the exact details of these features is far from settled upon and will continue to change for any one given location. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and mass fields are slightly north of continuity, and consistent with the latest trends, and as a result, brings more major East Coast cities (NYC and Boston) into play. Behind this system the general troughing in the east and ridging in the west will persist with some variability still in the shortwave details. A general model compromise worked well for this, and the 13z NBM was a viable starting point for the temperature grids given the uncertainty. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The two main highlights through the weekend will be the significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into the Mid- Atlantic, and the hazardous cold temperatures across the central and eastern portion of the country in the wake of this system. The winter storm should start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday, expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast by Saturday, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday into Monday. This is likely to be a widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter conditions. On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain and sleet is expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from portions of central TX into portions of the Southeast and SC/NC. The aforementioned northward trend would likely shift this swath a bit farther north, especially over the Southeast and southern Mid- Atlantic, so will need to keep a close eye on that. To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures in the teens and 20s will only exacerbate travel impacts from this snow. With the current northward trend in guidance, this may put more of the major East Coast cities (New York City, Boston) in play. Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north- central U.S. under an arctic surface high, which will push much colder than average temperatures (on the order of 20-30 degrees) farther south and east over the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching 20 to 30 degrees below zero Saturday and Sunday morning. The coldest wind chills will likely be Friday morning, but could still be looking at values reaching negative 40 degrees in some locations Saturday morning. Well south, highs are forecast to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Arkansas and across the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Lows in the single digits will push as far south as central TX and into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures should start to moderate by Tuesday into Wednesday as the high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to Eastern Seaboard. Beyond the winter storm this weekend, conditions across the rest of the U.S. should be mostly dry and quiet, though some snowfall looks possible in the wake of the Northeast upper low. The Rockies should block the cold air from moving into the West where an upper ridge should generally keep temperatures near to slightly above average. Santorelli/Chenard Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$