405 FXUS02 KWBC 092000 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 ...Overview... Generally drier weather is expected across much of the country early next week as high pressure sprawls from the Interior West to the Southeast, but moist lead flow with a frontal system is expected to bring locally focusing precipitation into the Pacific Northwest. Mid-later next week looks to remain mainly dry for much of the Western and Central U.S., but precipitation chances will likely increase across the East under an amplifying upper trough. Given overall favorable pattern support, there is also an increasing, but still uncertain signal for potential later next week coastal low genesis up the East Coast to monitor. Meanwhile in this highly amplified re-emerging pattern, temperatures will trend above average across the Western and into the Central U.S. in the proximity of the amplified ridge, with the greatest anomalies for the northern/central Plains, while the Southeast will likely be below average under the base of an amplified upper level trough. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall pattern through next week, albeit with smaller scale embedded feature differences and local focus variances slowly increasing with time. WPC's medium-range pressures/fronts progs were created from a deterministic 00/06 UTC model blend valid for Monday into Wednesday before adding into the mix guidance from compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means to help smooth out growing model differences. This seems to provide a good forecast starting point mainly consistent with the NBM. WPC product continuity seems well maintained, but given anomalous and favorable upper pattern predictability, added for messaging a moderately organized coastal low track up/off the East Coast late next week to monitor. Latest 12 UTC cycle guidance trends remain in line. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation chances decrease for most of the country early next week, except for portions of the Pacific Northwest that will see increasing precipitation as a Pacific system approaches. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible for regions along the Olympics and northern Cascades in Washington into early next week, though amounts look low enough to preclude outlook areas for the Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Moderate snows will be possible for higher elevations. Elsewhere, additional upper-waves within mean-troughing over the Eastern U.S. could bring additional snow showers to favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes. These chances look to increase by mid-week as a more organized clipper-like system swings through the region underneath an amplifying upper trough. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase throughout the Gulf Coast region and northward along the East Coast mid-next week as moist return flow increases ahead of a stronger upper-wave and associated cold front. The growing potential for still uncertain coastal low genesis at this point does offer a threat for a more organized and intensitve system impact along/off the East Coast to monitor. Temperatures this weekend and into early to mid-next week will trend above average across the Western and Central U.S. as an upper-ridge builds and remains anchored over the region. There is also some indication for enhanced wind potential for southern California and vicinity to monitor. The greatest anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees are expected to expand from the Northern to Central Plains Sunday to Tuesday before returning a bit closer to average Wednesday- Thursday. Despite mean-upper troughing overhead, temperatures across the Eastern U.S. look to generally remain seasonal. Below average temperatures are most likely across the Southeast next week. Roth/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$