028 FXUS02 KWBC 202012 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 ...Significant winter storm expected from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic bringing widespread heavy snow and ice impacts... ...Dangerous cold expected for the north-central U.S. while much below average temperatures spread to the South and East... ...Overview... Broad upper troughing associated with a major arctic outbreak is forecast to persist across the eastern half of the country through early next week. At the surface, an arctic high pressure system will bring dangerously cold temperatures to much of the central and eastern U.S, especially the upper Midwest where wind chills could be near 50 degrees below zero. Meanwhile, an upper low moving onshore into the Southwest is forecast to interact and clash with the arctic air while ingesting Gulf moisture to produce widespread snow and ice across the southern Plains beginning on Friday, followed by lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution. Model guidance continues to trend toward a faster southward plunge of the arctic air and the associated high pressure system into the southern U.S. Friday into Saturday, resulting in colder temperatures than previously predicted. It remains the case that the clash of the arctic plunge with southern stream energy ejecting out of the Southwest will result in a high impact winter storm across the southern tier beginning on Friday. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty mainly on the along-track timing of the southern stream energy and the degree of interaction with the northern stream troughing. The uncertainty will impact the timing and placement of the snow/ice line as well as the northern gradient of the snowfall. While these details will need to be worked out over the coming days, a significant winter storm will likely impact a wide swath of the south-central U.S. through the Mid-Atlantic. The WPC medium-range forecast package was based on a consensus blend of 40% from the 00Z EC/EC mean, 40% from the 06Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the CMC/CMC mean with much of the blend coming from the ensemble means by Day 7. This blend smooths over the model extremes and provides a middle ground solution between the fast GFS solution and the slow EC solution. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The two main highlights this week into the weekend will be the significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic, and the dangerously cold temperatures across the north-central portion of the country. The winter storm should start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday, expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast on Saturday, and into the Mid-Atllantic over the weekend. This is likely to be a widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter conditions. On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions of SC/NC. To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple 10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half of the snowfall axis. Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north- central U.S. starting Thursday under an arctic surface high, which will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and east for Friday into the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching 20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average temperatures will expand into the Central Plains Friday and towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Missouri and across the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These temperatures will be as much as 20-30+ degrees below average. Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday into Tuesday as the high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air from moving into the West where temperatures should generally remain near to above average. Kong/Chenard/Dolan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$