120 FXUS02 KWBC 160756 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 ...General Overview... A new surface low develops over eastern Colorado and emerges over the Midwest and then the Great Lakes to close out the week. Out West, the next low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest going into next weekend with renewed prospects for rain and mountain snow from northern California and into the Pacific Northwest, and this could be an atmospheric river event. Elsewhere, ongoing precipitation across much of the West should abate and decrease in coverage going into the end of the week, and widespread rain is likely from the Ohio Valley to the major cities of the Northeast, and colder weather arrives to much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the weekend after a cold front clears the region. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite is in good agreement on the synoptic scale pattern across the Continental U.S. on Thursday, with a general deterministic model blend working well as a starting point for fronts and pressures. The greatest model differences exist across near the West Coast for the end of the week with varying solutions on low center placements. Model spread increases significantly going into next weekend and beyond with timing of cold front progression across the southeast states and the potential for a coastal low to develop off the East Coast by Sunday night, with the GFS strongest with this scenario. The ensemble means were increased to about 50% by next Monday. The NBM appeared reasonable for most areas of the country, although winds were increased across the southern Rockies for the end of the week and daytime highs were slightly lowered. There was also a reduction in precipitation chances for eastern Colorado where downsloping flow is expected through Friday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Snow showers across the West should be decreasing in coverage and intensity to close out the week across the western U.S., and generally lighter rainfall for the lower elevations of California, so no excessive rainfall risk areas are currently warranted going into Thursday and Friday. Looking ahead to next week, an intensifying low pressure system off the coast of Oregon is expected to enhance onshore flow from northern California to western Washington, with the potential for an atmospheric river event during that time with several inches of rainfall possible in some areas, and heavy snow from the northern Sierra Nevada to the Cascades. Rain develops over the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Mid- Atlantic towards the end of the week in conjunction with the next low, and there is an increasing potential for moderate to heavy inland snow across the northern half of New England by Friday and into Saturday, and rain closer to the coast. A separate area of low pressure that develops along the cold front may lead to additional rainfall developing over the Southeast this weekend, and some potential exists for a coastal low by Sunday and early Monday, although details remain unclear and subject to change. Warm weather for this time of year will initially be in place across a large expanse of the eastern U.S. on Thursday, with the highest anomalies centered over the Ohio Valley with highs running up to 25 degrees above late February averages. A cold front brings a return to reality here by Saturday with the mild readings confined to the Deep South and into the Carolinas, and near normal to the north. There has been a trend to colder temperatures to close out the weekend and into Monday for much of the eastern U.S. in recent model runs, with highs now likely to be 5 to 15 degrees below normal for many areas by Monday. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$