223 FXUS02 KWBC 110725 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026 - 12Z Sat Jul 18 2026 ...Dangerous heat continues across the north-central U.S. through next week... ...Overview... A broad and anomalously strong upper-level ridge will be in place across the Intermountain West to northern Plains to Midwest next week, leading to a significant and dangerous heat wave continuing across those regions. Rain and thunderstorms are likely on the southern periphery of the ridge, with elevated chances of heavy rain and flash flooding in western/central Texas in particular. Additionally, monsoonal moisture is forecast to increase and produce showers and storms across the Southwest, Four Corners states, and northward into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Some energies on the northern side of the ridge could also lead to rounds of rain and thunderstorms in the northern tier, including a northern New England severe threat Tuesday. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance shows good agreement in terms of the 594+ dm upper high centered near the north-central U.S. and meandering next week, leading to high confidence in multiple days of hazardous heat. Models indicate the ridge should stretch into parts of the Northeast Tuesday before getting suppressed by into the Mid- Atlantic by an upper trough moving in by the latter half of the week. The ridge axis there may join with the subtropical Atlantic high that shifts west through later next week; meanwhile farther west, the ridge should get renewed across the northern/central Rockies and Plains. Smaller-scale energies to the south of the ridge are relatively more uncertain, but there is an increasing signal for lower heights with energy aloft across the southern High Plains midweek, yielding increasing QPF. Meanwhile a northeastern Pacific upper low has shown the most notable variations in the guidance over the past day or two. The new 00Z model cycle shows the CMC (after a farther west 12Z run), ECMWF, AIFS, and AI-GFS clustering around a middle ground timeline of moving into the Pacific Northwest around Thursday. The 00Z GFS sped up compared to consensus and its older runs, which was less favored. The evolution of the low as it tracks east around the northern periphery of the ridge late week is somewhat questionable though. The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model deterministic blend early on, but reduced/eliminated the 00Z GFS from the blend and overall increased the proportion of the ensemble means as the period progressed. The means reached half the blend Day 6 and more Day 7, amid increasing spread particularly for the energies northwest and north of the ridge. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A strong and expansive ridge sprawling from the western U.S. to the central U.S. will lead to an extended period of dangerous heat for parts of the Intermountain West, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest next week. Several days of well above normal and potentially record-breaking maximum and minimum temperatures will lead to major to extreme HeatRisk. WPC continues to update Heat Key Messages for this event, which can be found on our homepage. Coverage of the dangerous heat could gradually become more limited into late week. Farther east, periods of warmer than average temperatures are likely for the Northeast particularly on Tuesday, shifting into the Mid-Atlantic midweek and beyond while the Northeast cools behind a cold front. The upper ridge potentially combining with subtropical ridging across Florida will maintain warm temperatures and elevated HeatRisk there. Meanwhile, much of the southern tier could see near to slightly below average temperatures as a front stalls near the Gulf Coast and acts as a focus for showers and thunderstorms through at least midweek. The very moist and unstable environment could lead to flash flooding concerns, and broad Marginal Risks of flash flooding are in place for Days 4-5 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Embedded Slight Risks are in place across portions of Texas, where Pacific and Gulf moisture should combine in the vicinity of a shortwave aloft. Meanwhile, prefrontal instability and moisture will be in place across the Northeast on Tuesday, and the Storm Prediction Center has delineated a severe threat in northern New England. Increasing southerly flow around the western periphery of the central U.S. ridge will draw significant monsoonal moisture into the Southwest and Intermountain West to Rockies next week. This moisture will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Sensitive places such as burn scars, steep terrain, etc., would be the most vulnerable to any flooding concerns that may develop. Broad Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall are delineated for Tuesday and Wednesday stretching from the Southwest north to Montana. Rainfall potential should continue for that region through late week, while possible northern tier shortwaves yield increasing rain chances for the Great Lakes and vicinity. Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$