594 FXUS02 KWBC 191959 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 ...Dangerous cold expected for the north-central U.S. while much below average temperatures spread to the South and East... ...Increasing chances for snow and ice from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Overview... Broad upper troughing will be centered just north of the Great Lakes late this week into early next week. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will spill south into the United States, bringing dangerously cold temperatures to much of the central and eastern U.S, especially the Upper Midwest where wind chills could near 50 degrees below zero. Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly likely that a southern stream low will move across the southern tier of the nation, which would result in Gulf moisture clashing with Arctic cold to produce snow and ice across the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Southeast, and Mid- Atlantic Friday into the weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the upper level pattern through the period, especially over the central and eastern U.S. under the broad upper trough. All model guidance shows Arctic air making it down to the Gulf and East Coasts, which will clash with southern stream energy to produce a potentially high impact winter storm across the southern tier. There are some southern stream differences among the models that may affect sensible weather. The 06Z and 12Z GFS solutions were the only deterministic solutions still hanging on to a slower upper low lingering near Baja California into next week, while other guidance (including AI) has trended much more progressive with this feature. For this reason, the WPC forecast favored a faster solution with very limited influence from the GFS. A faster solution allows for increased moisture across the south-central U.S. ahead of the upper low with a broader precipitation footprint. There is still a significant amount of uncertainty in the QPF forecast this weekend. Models have been trending northwards with the heavy precipitation axis, which is in line with what the AI guidance has been showing, so adjustments were made to the NBM to reflect these trends in the WPC forecast. The WPC forecast used a blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET early in the period, then increased contributions from ensemble means through the second half of the period while decreasing the influence of the GFS. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Another couple days of lake effect snow are likely across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, with potentially heavy amounts piling up downwind of Lake Ontario after a snowy short range period too. Meanwhile, some light to moderate rain is forecast across the Southeast Thursday, while the low aloft could help produce some light precipitation across southern California. Precipitation is forecast to increase across parts of the Southwest, South, and Southeast on Friday as a winter storm develops. With cold Arctic air in place, ice and snow are likely across much of the southern tier. Precipitation, including snow and ice, is forecast to spread east into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, lasting until Sunday and potentially spreading north into the Northeast. Model guidance shows increasing confidence in a potentially major winter storm, but it will take additional time to refine the details of winter weather impacts, so continue to monitor forecasts. Elsewhere, precipitation chances may increase across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies this weekend and across the Great Lakes early next week as shortwaves move through. Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north- central U.S. starting Thursday under an Arctic surface high, which will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and east for Friday into the weekend. The northern Plains to Upper Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching 20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average temperatures will expand into the central Plains Friday and towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Arkansas and across the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These temperatures will be 20-30+ degrees below average. Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday as the high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air from moving into the West, and temperatures will generally be a few degrees above average in the Great Basin most days. Dolan/Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$