410 FXUS02 KWBC 140751 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 ...Widespread Rain/Snow Pattern returns to the West and downstream Heavy Snow/Ice Threat for the North-Central U.S/Midwest next week... ...General Overview... An expansive upper level ridge builds in from the southern Plains to the Midwest going into Tuesday, with widespread above normal temperatures and breezy conditions accompanying it, and this ridge then reaches the East Coast by Wednesday with a return to warmer temperatures after prolonged cold weather. Out West, a pattern change will be taking place with a large upper trough with embedded shortwave energy building into the region, bringing badly needed moisture after the recent dry spell, with moderate to heavy rainfall for the California coast, and heavy snow from the Sierra Nevada to the central and northern Rockies. An organized low pressure system is expected to develop across the Midwest and Ohio Valley to close out the work week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite is generally in good overall agreement on the main synoptic scale pattern through the middle of the week, with the normal level of mesoscale differences among the models, except for a slower offshore solution with the CMC regarding the exiting low off the East Coast. The UKMET is on the northern side of the guidance with the surface low and front across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, but all guidance agrees this low weakens by Thursday as the next surface low evolves over the Central Plains. The CMC is slower with this second low and makes it stronger by the end of the forecast period, whereas the GFS/GEFS are generally more progressive. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Saturday. In terms of the NBM, the winds are likely too low from western Texas and Oklahoma northward to eastern Wyoming for Tuesday into Wednesday, so both sustained winds and gusts were increased to better represent the expected synoptic set-up with strong southwesterly winds ahead of the ejecting western U.S. trough. Temperatures during the afternoon were also slightly raised along with lowered dewpoints given the increased potential for fire weather conditions, particularly near the Texas Panhandle region on Tuesday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A potent shortwave trough moving inland across the Desert Southwest is expected to bring moderate to locally heavy rainfall for the lower elevations from near San Francisco to the greater Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas. A Marginal Risk will remain valid for these areas on Tuesday south of Monterrey, and lighter showers on Wednesday when no risk areas are currently warranted. Additional rainfall is likely going into the end of the week for the Pacific Northwest, but does not appear to be heavy at this time in the forecast. Snow levels are expected to fall quite a bit with the shortwave and cold front moving inland, with multiple feet of snowfall expected for the Sierra Nevada through next week, and 1 to 2 feet of snowfall is probable for the higher ranges of the Intermountain West and the central/northern Rockies. This snowfall will greatly help with the deteriorating drought situation across much of the Colorado River basin. The strong upper shortwave trough ejecting out over the Plains will spur surface cyclogenesis over the western High Plains by Tuesday afternoon across eastern Wyoming. This low should generally track across the Midwest and then reach the Great Lakes and weaken going into Thursday. A strong pressure gradient south of the low will generate enhanced winds from western Texas to Wyoming, and combined with anomalous warmth and low humidity will likely result in elevated fire weather potential on Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday as well. To the north of the surface low will be a broad corridor of mainly stratiform precipitation from the Dakotas to Michigan, with snow on the northern edge. A second surface low is likely to develop across Kansas by Thursday, but likely less impactful than the first storm system. Temperatures will feel more like late March and April across a large portion of the Plains and the Midwest with the amplified upper ridge in place and downsloping winds from the Rockies. Highs are expected to be up to 30 degrees above mid-February averages across portions of Nebraska and Iowa, with the potential for a few record highs to be set. Except for New England, the eastern U.S. will also get a welcomed warm-up after an extended period of very cold weather the past couple of weeks going into Wednesday and Thursday, as the warmth from the Plains builds eastward with a warm front lifting north. It should remain cold closer to the Canadian border as a strong surface high builds in behind a cold front, but no arctic air mass intrusions are expected. Colder than average conditions will generally be the rule across much of the West given the upper trough and more clouds and precipitation keeping daytime highs in check on most days. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$