860 FXUS02 KWBC 161949 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 249 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 ...General Overview... A new surface low develops over eastern Colorado and emerges over the Midwest and then the Great Lakes to close out the week. This should spread precipitation across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Additional energy along the attendant cold front should bring moderate rainfall to parts of the Southeast into the Mid- Atlantic this weekend with very uncertainty winter weather across New England early next week with possible coastal low development. Out West, the next low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest going into next weekend with renewed prospects for rain and mountain snow from northern California and into the Pacific Northwest, producing a modest atmospheric river. Colder weather arrives to much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the weekend after a cold front clears the region. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance continues to offer good agreement on the large scale, but plenty of uncertainty in the details. Initially, uncertainty exists across the central to eastern U.S. with a couple of weaker shortwaves. Models also continue to show spread on timing of a cold front across the Southeast and potential coastal low development off the East Coast later in the weekend. The GFS continues to be strongest with this scenario, and the extent of winter weather across the Northeast with this remains very uncertain. After this, attention shifts to the West Coast next week as another strong upper low develops off the Coast with uncertain shortwaves moving inland. The WPC forecast used a blend of the deterministic solutions the first half of the period, increasing to weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by the end of the period. This generally maintains good continuity with the previous WPC forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Snow showers across the West should be decreasing in coverage and intensity to close out the week across the western U.S., and generally lighter rainfall for the lower elevations of California, so no excessive rainfall risk areas are currently warranted going into Thursday and Friday. Looking ahead to next week, an intensifying low pressure system off the coast of Oregon is expected to enhance onshore flow from northern California to western Washington, with the potential for an atmospheric river event during that time with several inches of rainfall possible in some areas, and heavy snow from the northern Sierra Nevada to the Cascades. Rain develops over the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Mid- Atlantic towards the end of the week in conjunction with the next low, and there is an increasing potential for moderate to heavy inland snow across the northern half of New England by Friday and into Saturday, and rain closer to the coast. A separate area of low pressure that develops along the cold front may lead to additional rainfall developing over the Southeast this weekend, and some potential exists for a coastal low by Sunday and early Monday, which may bring additional chances for winter weather. The specifics on the strength and track of this low is still very uncertain but will have direct implications on what and where, if anything, any possible precipitation will occur. Warm weather for this time of year will initially be in place across a large expanse of the eastern U.S. on Thursday, with the highest anomalies centered over the Ohio Valley with highs running up to 25 degrees above late February averages. A cold front brings moderating temperatures by Saturday with slightly above normal temperatures confined to the Deep South and into the Carolinas, and near normal to the north. There has been a trend to colder temperatures to close out the weekend and into Monday for much of the eastern U.S. in recent model runs, with highs now likely to be 5 to 15 degrees below normal for many areas by Monday. Santorelli/Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$