392 FXUS02 KWBC 272000 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 ...Significant East Coastal Winter Storm Threat this weekend... ...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat into next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the overall synoptic evolution across the CONUS during the medium range period. The main area of uncertainty remains along the East Coast this weekend where cyclogenesis is expected to occur. A general model blend of all the available deterministic guidance was used on days 3 and 4, followed by the introduction of the GEFS and ECE on day 5 due to their comprable depth and placement of the upper low along the East Coast. Trends seem to favor a track farther from the coast, but this may be subject to change. The NBM struggles to capture lake effect snow that develops downwind of the Great Lakes on days 4 and 5 so a blend of deterministic Canadian and other pieces of guidance were used to bump up QPF over those areas. Some Euro suite, GEFS and continuity were used to enhance QPF from the Upper Midwest to interior Northeast on days 6 and 7, since the NBM failed to capture precip across those areas. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected. Meanwhile, lingering southerly Pacific moisture fetch riding the western periphery of an amplified West Coast mean upper ridge favors a wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest this period, but no Excessive Rainfall Outlook threat areas remain in place due to a lowering guidance signal over time. Snow levels will rise with the influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier snows possible for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Energy spillng over the ridge may fuel modest snow chances to the north-central Rockies/Plains. Kebede/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$