869 FXUS02 KWBC 090711 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Remnants of Rachel to increase heavy rainfall potential across the Southwest and Intermountain West early next week... ...Record heat for the Southern Plains, Mid-South, and Southeast... ...Pattern Overview... A rather amplified but still mostly progressive pattern will bring a variety of weather to much of the CONUS next week. A system in the West Monday will contain the remnant moisture of Rachel, continuing the flash flooding threat into next Monday/Tuesday for especially AZ into UT. That system will eventually lift into the Plains next Thursday with an expanding area of rain over the Plains as moisture from ex-Simon flows northward. For the central and eastern states, record temperatures Monday (TX to MO to MS) into the 90s will slowly cool back into the 80s as the front approaches from the west. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Much of the latest guidance was in good synoptic agreement overall, taking the deep trough through the West at a bit quicker pace than 24-48 hrs ago. However, some of the AI runs (ECMWF-AIFS, especially) did not dig the trough deep enough to slow its movement, therefore outrunning the physics-based models. For now, will continue to favor the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET consensus along with their ensemble means given the upstream changes in recent runs over the north Pacific which feeds the pattern into western NOAM. Confidence is moderate at best, despite the good apparent agreement. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Across the West, the remnants of Rachel combined with the incoming upper trough will yield another day of widespread modest to locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding from the Southwest into the Great Basin on Monday and perhaps Tuesday as well. Cold air surging behind the cold front will lower snow levels, leading to accumulating snow over higher elevations of the Northern/Central Rockies with generally minor impacts, but this could be the first appreciable snow for the Utah ranges. As the system lifts into the northern Plains, moisture from what is leftover from Simon may stream northward and aid in producing a widespread area of rain ahead of the cold front. This will push eastward late next week. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the southern Plains to the Southeast will be well above normal and likely set new daily high temperature records (upper 80s to the mid 90s). Low temperatures may only fall into the 70s for several nights yielding HeatRisk values of Moderate to perhaps Major over south Texas. Finally, a cold front will slip through the Northeast and settle in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest on Tuesday, bringing in some cooler weather to the north and chance of rain along the frontal boundary. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$