686 FXUS02 KWBC 170755 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 ***Potential for a coastal storm Sunday night into Monday for the Northeast U.S.*** ...General Overview... An organized low pressure system over the Great Lakes Friday is expected to gradually weaken, while a second low forms near the New England coast and moves offshore going into Saturday. This will result in a cold front sinking south across the eastern U.S. through the weekend. A new surface low develops along this boundary across the Deep South late Saturday and then develops further upon exiting the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday, with a nor'easter becoming more likely Sunday night into early Monday for coastal portions of the Northeast with higher prospects for rain and inland snow, and gusty winds. Meanwhile out West, a large area of low pressure develops off the Coast of Oregon and Washington, keeping conditions unsettled going into the weekend and early next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite is generally in good overall agreement to begin the forecast period Friday, with a nearly multi- deterministic model blend sufficing as a starting point for fronts and pressures. Going into the Sunday to Monday time period, there has been a definitive trend for a stronger low pressure system forming off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast, with the potential for a nor'easter to bring enhanced rain/snow and stronger winds. The latest UKMET and GFS are closer to the coast and more impactful, similar to recent runs of the AIFS guidance, whereas the ECMWF remains more suppressed and takes the low away from the coast faster. This is in response to an amplifying upper trough digging in across the Great Lakes and spurring a deepening surface low. The NBM appeared fairly reasonable for most areas, although snow to liquid ratios were lowered from the Sierra Nevada to the Cascades going into the weekend. Some light QPF was added across the Great Lakes over the weekend to better account for some lake effect snow, and winds were increased closer to NBM75 near the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to eastern New England, but these may need to be raised even further in later forecasts. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Snow showers across the West should be decreasing in coverage and intensity to close out the week across the western U.S., and generally lighter rainfall for the lower elevations of California, so no excessive rainfall risk areas are currently warranted going into Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead to Sunday, an intensifying low pressure system off the coast of Oregon is expected to enhance onshore flow from northern California to western Washington, with the potential for an atmospheric river event during that time with several inches of rainfall possible in some areas, and heavy snow from the northern Sierra Nevada to the Cascades. There has been a slightly slower trend for arrival of heavier precipitation with this event compared to yesterday's guidance. Rain develops from the Mid-South to southern New England by the end of the week in conjunction with the next low, and there is an increasing potential for moderate to heavy inland snow across the northern half of New England where enough cold air will be in place. An increasing potential exists for a coastal low by Sunday and early Monday, and if that comes to pass, heavy coastal rain and inland snow could be the case from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, and strong winds near the coast with the potential for coastal flooding. The specifics on the strength and track of this low are still uncertain, but will have direct implications on the inland extent and intensity of the precipitation, so stay tuned for later updates on this event. Warm weather for this time of year will initially be in place across a large expanse of the eastern U.S. on Friday, with the highest anomalies centered over the Southeast with highs running up to 20 degrees above late February averages, and overnight lows near 25 degrees above average. A strong cold front brings moderating temperatures by the weekend with slightly above normal temperatures confined to the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas, and near to below normal to the north. There has been a continued trend for colder temperatures into Monday and Tuesday for much of the eastern U.S. in recent model runs, with highs now likely to be 5 to 15 degrees below normal for many areas, with the coldest conditions expected over the Northeast. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$