470 FXUS02 KWBC 141838 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 238 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 21 2026 ...Broad frost/freeze threats from the Midwest to the Northeast this weekend and into early next week... ...Overview... A strong cold front and chilly surface high pressure behind it will bring frost and freeze concerns from the Midwest into the Northeast this weekend and early next week. The front will eventually stall out across Florida, leading to locally heavy rainfall late weekend into midweek. Meanwhile, the next trough digs into the West sometime early to mid next week, bringing the potential for rain and high elevation snow. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance continues to show good overall agreement with the large scale pattern across the CONUS through the weekend before differences become more apparent (especially across the western U.S.) heading into next week. To start, an amplified trough will push a strong surface low through the Northeast by Saturday, with a cold front and strong surface high pressure following in its wake. Models have been trending more amplified and slower with the upper trough, which could prolong precip across the Carolinas should a secondary wave develop. Meanwhile, models continue to advertise a large and deepening trough moving into the West sometime early to mid next week. However, considerable uncertainty remains with this system with plenty of run to run variability in the latest guidance. Similar to the eastern U.S. trough this weekend, the western U.S. trough has been trending more amplified, slower, and farther west with its placement before eventually cutting off over or near the Southwest. This again will have implications to QPF, temperatures, and precipitation type across much of the West. The updated WPC forecast used a blend of the deterministic guidance through Day 5, increasing the weighting of ensemble mean inclusion to 50 percent of the blend for Days 6 and 7 amidst greater uncertainty out West. Despite the growing uncertainty and likelihood for additional changes in the West, this generally maintains good continuity with the previous WPC forecast and was consistent with the 13Z National Blend of Models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Gusty northerly winds will continue across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic into Saturday in the wake of a strong surface low and cold front. The front will continue southward and sweep across the Southeast before stalling out across central/southern Florida on Sunday. With the front nearby and onshore flow directing moisture into the east coast of Florida, a prolonged stretch of unsettled weather is likely through midweek with showers and storms capable of locally heavy rainfall possible. Parts of the West could also see increasing precipitation chances by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as another deepening trough gradually moves inland with low elevation rain and high elevation snow. Elsewhere, a drier pattern is in store for the remainder of the country by the weekend into early next week with high pressure taking control. Canadian high pressure is forecast to gradually track across the country behind the cold front into the weekend, cooling temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. and providing fairly broad frost/freeze threats. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures in the West will spread into the north-central U.S. over the weekend and the Central U.S. next week. Deep troughing will gradually bring below normal temperatures to parts of the West by mid next week. Miller/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$