125 FXUS02 KWBC 131811 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026 ...Building Heat from the West/Southwest to South-Central U.S.... ...Heavy Rain/Flooding threats over the Midwest and the South... ...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance continues to show better than average agreement on the large scale pattern during the medium range period, with some typical variations in the smaller scale details which may take until the short range to fully resolve. This features an initially amplified Western ridge and Great Lakes to Eastern trough which is periodically reinforced with shortwaves/energies from central Canada. The pattern should ease and become more zonal by later in the period as energy moves into the West acting to flatten the ridge and Eastern U.S. shortwaves begin to push more eastward. Heavy rainfall and convection threats should tend to focus initially across the Midwest into the East, with a push with time towards the South. The WPC forecast for today used a general model blend of the deterministic guidance for the first half of the period, transitioning towards half ensemble mean blend by the end of the period to mitigate differences. Overall maintained good continuity with the previous WPC forecast, and the NBM was a very reasonable starting point for the gridded forecast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S. through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains next week and provide a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Deep Gulf/tropical moisture return and instability will interact with the generally west to east oriented front to fuel an heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat to include potential for the repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday/Wednesday have Marginal to Slight Risk areas for a flooding potential focus over the western/central Gulf Coast states/vicinity and this threat may extend into the later week too. Elsewhere, an organized heavy rain and thunderstorm threat is meanwhile slated to develop and linger next week as a series of energetic and progressive northern stream shortwave and associated surface lows/fronts dig from the north-central U.S. through the Midwest. A WPC Day 5/Wednesday ERO Marginal Risk area centered over the Midwest continues to be highlighted, coinciding with SPC convective areas too. Threat potential will persist later next week as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the south- central U.S./Mid- South and the east/northeast U.S.. Early week ridging over the West will lead to much above normal temperatures and a moderate to locally major HeatRisk, especially into parts of the Southwest. With time, the heat will spread into the south-central U.S. with more widespread major HeatRisk expected for parts of central Texas. Elevated heat threats look to overspread the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida as well. Schichtel/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$