671 FXUS02 KWBC 310732 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 ...Heavy rain and flooding potential across the central to east- central U.S. late week into the weekend... ...Another round of April snow and ice possible across the northern tier Friday-Saturday... ...Overview... An upper low will move through the north-central U.S. late week and push a reasonably strong low pressure/frontal system across the central and eastern U.S. Friday and through the weekend. This will draw ample moisture and instability northward from the Gulf and produce widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, with flooding a concern especially across parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Ice and snow are forecast on the northern side of the system across parts of the northern Plains, Midwest, and northern New England. Cooler temperatures are likely behind the front in the central and eastern U.S., but the West can expect warming temperatures into early next week underneath upper ridging. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance has been agreeable in showing the existence of the upper/surface lows moving through the central U.S. late this week, but more spread regarding the timing of these features. For the most part, GFS runs have been on the faster side of the guidance while non-NCEP models have been slower. For the 12/18Z model cycle, an ECMWF/CMC heavy forecast was favored (which were a bit faster than the slow 18Z AIFS). Fortunately, the incoming 00Z model suite seems to be converging on a middle ground solution for the low tracks, with the GFS slowing down and other models speeding up somewhat, for better agreement. Upper troughing then looks to maintain itself over the eastern U.S. as another shortwave dives south into the northern/central Plains by early Sunday, albeit with some model spread on its timing/strength. Ridging upstream across the western U.S. over the weekend seems rather predictable and is forecast to gradually shift east early next week. Then a strong upper low may approach the Pacific Northwest from the northeast Pacific at the tail end of the forecast period next Tuesday, which will continue to be monitored. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Low pressure tracking through the central Plains Friday and the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday will bring active weather across the central U.S. late this week. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of the associated cold front and produce widespread convection. Model agreement is rather good for a focus of heavy rain totals over parts of the southern Plains as storms likely beginning in the afternoon get reinforced through the evening and night as a low level jet picks up ahead of the cold front. Have embedded a Slight Risk in the Day 4/Friday ERO centered over Oklahoma for flash flooding potential. The area may be somewhat more susceptible after rain during the short range period. There could be strong to severe thunderstorms in this setup as well. The front will gradually push eastward into Saturday and push convection east with it. The front starts moving a little faster Saturday compared to Friday, but above average moisture and instability are still in place as well as favorable jet dynamics. For the Day 5/Saturday ERO, a large Marginal Risk is in place stretching from parts of Texas across the Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes all along and ahead of the front. The front should reach the Eastern Seaboard Sunday and provide widespread precipitation chances there, which could linger in the Southeast Monday. Snow and ice are also potential impacts with this low pressure system. Lingering snow is likely in the northern/central Rockies on Friday while also spreading across the northern Plains, with some snow reaching the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Freezing rain and sleet are also possible across portions of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes, and farther east into Maine on Friday and Saturday. Snow and ice amounts remain uncertain so stay tuned for future updates. Strong winds could be a threat in the Intermountain West to Rockies and Plains on Friday with the low pressure system, and reaching the Midwest and vicinity by Saturday. Another round of light precipitation, with possibly some snow, is forecast in the north-central U.S. Sunday and Monday as a shortwave passes over behind the main system. Some lake effect precipitation is also possible in the broad westerly flow. Farther west, most areas should stay generally dry other than some possible Four Corners convection by early next week, and the Pacific Northwest may see increasing precipitation chances by Monday or Tuesday depending on the approaching upper low. Well above average temperatures are likely across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Saturday, as highs reach the 70s to the Canadian border in the Lower Great Lakes region. A handful of record highs could be approached or set especially Saturday. But a cooling trend is likely to spread from the central U.S. Friday-Saturday across the East on Sunday and Monday for more seasonable to slightly below average temperatures. Meanwhile, the West can expect gradually warming temperatures to 10 to 20 degrees above average by the weekend and early next week as upper ridging comes in. Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$