315 FXUS02 KWBC 241942 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 242 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 31 2026 ...Central to eastern U.S. hazardous cold threat into next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance remains generally agreeable on the overall pattern next week which looks to remain highly amplified, at least through mid-week, as embedded upper-level shortwaves help to reinforce deep upper- troughing across the central to eastern U.S. with an upper- ridge over the western U.S. All guidance is also agreeable handling a clipper system across the northern tier mid-week. Growing uncertainty is tied to splitting upper-level energies approaching the West Coast from the Pacific and helping to break down the western ridge. The GFS remains on the more progressive side with the ECMWF/CMC and ensemble means, as well as much of the suite of ECMWF AI guidance, slower, especially initially. The ECMWF/CMC are also better clustered with regards to one of the embedded upper- shortwaves dropping southward and developing an upper-low within the mean upper-troughing over the Great Lakes and then the Northeast. The ECMWF/CMC as well as the ensemble means are supportive of a stronger Arctic high dropping southward across the central U.S. in its wake as well, favoring reinforcement of continued very cold, below average temperatures late next week and into next weekend. The updated WPC forecast used a blend of the ECMWF/CMC given their better agreement with support from other AI guidance/ensemble means compared to the GFS, with increasing contributions from the ECens and CMC ensemble means as uncertainty on specifics grows with lead time. This also aligns well with the prior WPC forecast maintaining good continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Arctic surface high pressure settling in the wake of the upcoming historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. into next week. The airmass may moderate some mid-week before a re- surge later next week and into the weekend, and may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage. Amplified mean troughing aloft will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north- central U.S. to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley/Northeast, but especially in the lee of the Lakes. Upstream, an amplified upper ridge will linger near the West Coast before energy works onshore later next week with light- moderate rainfall also set to gradually work to the West Coast and inland. This solution does set the stage for renewed wintry precipitation potential for the southern Plains later next week as upper trough translation and uncertain stream phasing leads to western Gulf frontal wave genesis to monitor, with an eye on next weekend track potential downstream to/off the still cooled Gulf Coast/Southeast. The highly anomalous frigid temperatures will have some staying power across a broad swath of the central and eastern U.S. through all of next week, with areas from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and Ohio Valley likely remaining below freezing for highs each day, with the potential for some daily record lows to be set. This will be a serious problem for any areas that have extended power outages from the major winter storm ongoing over the next couple of days. Putnam/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$