437 FXUS02 KWBC 090646 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 146 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 ...Overview... Drier weather is expected across much of the country early next week as high pressure sprawls from the Interior West to the Southeast, but a frontal system is expected to bring precipitation into the Pacific Northwest. Mid-next week looks to remain dry for the Western and Central U.S., but precipitation chances will likely increase across the East under an amplifying upper trough. Temperatures will trend above average across the Western and Central U.S. in the proximity of the amplified ridge, with the greatest anomalies for the northern/central Plains, while the Southeast is below average under the base of an amplified upper level trough. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall pattern through next week. Details issues increase with time, as usual. WPC's morning pressures/fronts were created from a deterministic 00z model blend, with an increase in ensemble mean usage from the 00z NAEFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble means later on to help smooth out model differences mid next week. This served as a good starting point that should be consistent with the 01z NBM. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation chances decrease for most of the country early next week, except for portions of the Pacific Northwest that will see increasing precipitation as a Pacific system approaches. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible for regions along the Olympics and northern Cascades in Washington into Monday, though amounts look low enough to preclude outlook areas for the Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Moderate snows will be possible for higher elevations. Elsewhere, additional upper-waves within mean-troughing over the Eastern U.S. could bring additional snow showers to favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes. These chances look to increase by mid-week as a more organized clipper-like system swings through the region underneath an amplifying upper trough. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase throughout the Gulf Coast region and northward along the East Coast mid-next week as moist return flow increases ahead of a stronger upper-wave and associated cold front. Temperatures this weekend and into early to mid-next week will trend above average across the Western and Central U.S. as an upper-ridge builds and remains anchored over the region. The greatest anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees are expected to expand from the Northern to Central Plains Sunday to Tuesday before returning a bit closer to average Wednesday-Thursday. Despite mean-upper troughing overhead, temperatures across the Eastern U.S. look to generally remain around if not slightly above average. Below average temperatures are most likely across the Southeast next week. Roth/Dolan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$