121 FXUS02 KWBC 130745 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 ***Rain and mountain snow makes welcomed return to the Western U.S., and warm and windy conditions for the Plains*** ...General Overview... The low pressure system that will affect the southeastern U.S. this weekend is forecast to exit the East Coast on Monday, followed by improving weather conditions. An expansive upper level ridge builds in from the southern Plains to the Midwest through the middle of the week, with widespread above normal temperatures and breezy conditions accompanying it, and this ridge slowly reaches the East Coast by Thursday with a return to warmer temperatures after prolonged cold weather. Out West, a pattern change will be taking place with a large upper trough with embedded shortwave energy building into the region, bringing badly needed moisture after the recent dry spell, with moderate to heavy rainfall for the California coast, and heavy snow from the Sierra Nevada to the central and northern Rockies. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite is generally in good overall agreement on the main synoptic scale pattern, except there are some timing differences on the exiting low off the East Coast and the low over California Monday. Over the course of the week, the GFS is stronger and more progressive with the developing low across the Plains and Midwest, and this becomes even more apparent by Thursday with the past few runs of the GFS indicating a more amplified storm system across the Eastern U.S. compared to the non-NCEP consensus. The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Friday. In terms of the NBM, the winds are likely too low from western Texas and Oklahoma northward to eastern Wyoming for the first half of the week, so both sustained winds and gusts were increased to better represent the expected synoptic set-up with strong southwesterly winds ahead of the ejecting western U.S. trough. Across the Northeast, some light QPF was added Monday through early Tuesday to account for warm air advection that appears to be underdone in the NBM. There has also been a trend for heavier QPF across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes midweek to the north of the developing surface low over the Midwest compared to the previous WPC forecast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A potent shortwave trough approaching the central and southern California coast will likely be accompanied by an atmospheric river Monday with heavy rainfall for the lower elevations from near San Francisco to the greater Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas. A Marginal Risk will be valid for these areas on Monday, and a more confined Marginal Risk for Tuesday across southern California where the highest moisture flux will be. There is the possibility that a Slight Risk could eventually be needed on Monday for the upslope areas of the Transverse Range if model guidance trends higher. Snow levels are expected to fall quite a bit with the shortwave and cold front moving inland, and this will limit the heavy rainfall potential going into Tuesday. Multiple feet of snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada through next week, and 1 to 2 feet of snowfall is probable for the higher ranges of the Intermountain West and the central/northern Rockies. This moisture will greatly help with the deteriorating drought situation across much of the Colorado River basin. The strong upper shortwave trough ejecting out over the Plains will spur surface cyclogenesis over the western High Plains by Tuesday afternoon across eastern Wyoming. This low should generally track across the Midwest and then reach the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley by Thursday. A strong pressure gradient south of the low will generate enhanced winds from western Texas to Wyoming, and combined with anomalous warmth and low humidity will likely result in elevated fire weather potential on Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday as well. To the north of the surface low will be a broad corridor of mainly stratiform precipitation from the Dakotas to Michigan, with snow on the northern edge. Temperatures will feel more like late March and April across a large portion of the south-central U.S. with the amplified upper ridge in place and downsloping winds from the Rockies. Highs are expected to be well into the 70s and low-mid 80s farther south into central and western Texas. The eastern U.S. will also get a welcomed warm-up after an extended period of very cold weather the past couple of weeks going into Wednesday and Thursday, as the warmth from the Plains builds eastward with a warm front lifting north. It should remain cold closer to the Canadian border as a strong surface high builds in behind a cold front, but the developing storm system to the south will limit the southern extent of this colder air mass. Colder than average conditions will generally be the rule across much of the West given the upper trough and more clouds and precipitation keeping daytime highs in check on most days. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$