412 FXUS02 KWBC 030758 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 6 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 ***Renewed surge of arctic air expected for the East Coast by the weekend with impressive stretch of cold weather continuing*** ...General Overview... A potent shortwave trough and strong cold front will cross the Great Lakes and then the Northeast to close out the work week, and thus reinforcing the anomalously cold airmass in place for much of the Eastern U.S. for the weekend, with another arctic surface high dropping southward behind the cold front. Out West, a large upper ridge will be in place across the Intermountain West for the end of the week, but this is expected to slowly break down by Saturday as shortwave energy from the Pacific reaches Washington and Oregon. This will eventually result in a slightly more zonal upper flow pattern by the end of the forecast period, with broad troughing remaining near the East Coast and a broad ridge axis over the Plains, with above normal temperatures here and remaining below normal for the East Coast states with some moderation by Tuesday. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite features good synoptic scale agreement, although the latest GFS is stronger with the shortwave approaching the Pacific Northwest as early as Friday. This also holds true going into Sunday with the GFS showing a stronger shortwave as it crosses the ridge and then drops south across the Midwest, and also more amplified with a closed low off the New England coast by Monday morning. The CMC has trended closer to the model consensus with the southern stream upper trough approaching the southern Plains, whereas the 12Z run was considerably faster and lacked ensemble support. The ensemble means were increased to about 50% by next Tuesday. In terms of the NBM, it appeared a little to broad with QPF across the Northeast on Friday with the expectation of snow squalls ahead of the arctic front, so more of the deterministic guidance was blended in for more detail. Out West, QPF was raised by roughly 20% across the West Coast region and the Rockies with the trough moving inland given higher totals noted in the deterministic guidance, but overall placement looked reasonable. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Light to moderate snows can be expected from the northern Great Lakes to the central/northern Appalachians as the clipper system moves through the region on Friday. There will likely be some snow squalls that accompany the passage of the arctic front, with severely reduced visibility and heavier snowfall rates for brief periods of time. More substantial rain and mountain snow makes a return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as the upper ridge breaks down and allows Pacific moisture to move inland, bringing moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the Cascades, and lighter precipitation across the northern Rockies. Some of this rain/snow could reach into northern California by Sunday. However, no excessive rainfall areas will be needed for both the Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday outlooks given recent dry conditions and lack of widespread higher QPF totals. Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortably cold for most areas east of the Mississippi River through next weekend. There may be a slight warm-up closer to early February averages on Friday, but a harsh return to reality is coming by Saturday in the wake of a reinforcing arctic cold front after the clipper system passes by. Daytime highs could be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below normal from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and overnight lows up to 20 degrees below normal Sunday morning along the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Maine. Some record low maximums are possible on Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. The frigid conditions should slowly moderate going into early next week. A dichotomy will exist with well above average temperatures across a large expanse of the western U.S. and then extending eastward to include the western High Plains. The greatest anomalies should be across Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas where highs could be 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$