548 
FXUS02 KWBC 040653
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 - 12Z Sat Jul 11 2026


...Major Heatwave to settle over the South/Southeast next week...

                 
...Pattern Overview...

Broad upper-level ridging builds over the Southern U.S. next week,
while transient shortwaves propagate through the Great Lakes and 
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. The southern ridge will support a major 
heatwave, while the troughing to the north will generate diurnal 
showers and thunderstorms from the Northern Plains to the 
Northeast. Mean troughing persists across the Northwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in mostly good agreement regarding the evolution of the
synoptic pattern next week. The GFS was favored in the blend in
part because it clusters well with the ensemble means. The
deterministic Canadian wasn't included at all due to it 
overamplifying a Central U.S. trough and not capturing the timing
and intensity of northern tier shortwaves compared to model 
consensus.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A major heatwave ensues across the South/Southeast next week as 
weak upper ridging/quasi- zonal flow persist south of transient 
shortwaves propagating through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. The 
aforementioned troughing will pull warm and moist air through the 
Southeast and generate daily heat indices between 105-110 degrees 
from eastern Texas to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast next week.
These conditions will be dangerous and likely impact some health
systems, heat sensitive industries and infrastructure. This level
of heat will also affect those without adequate cooling and/or 
hydration.

Surface waves and attendant fronts draped across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest will be the focus for scattered to
isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sufficient
moisture (3-4 stndv) and instability along the front could combine
to produce heavy rainfall/flash flooding, but weak shearing will 
likely mitigate a severe weather threat. Rain showers and
thunderstorms move into the Eastern U.S. later in the week.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, 
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw


































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