151 FXUS02 KWBC 081855 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 ...Overview... Precipitation chances will linger through Sunday along the East Coast and over the Great Lakes as a frontal system pushes offshore. Drier weather is expected across much of the country early next week as high pressure sprawls from the Interior West to the Southeast, but a frontal system is expected to bring precipitation into the Pacific Northwest. Mid-next week looks to remain dry for the Western and Central U.S., but precipitation chances will likely increase across the East under an amplifying upper trough. Temperatures will trend above average across the Western and Central U.S., with the greatest anomalies for the northern/central Plains, while the Eastern U.S. remains near to slightly below average. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall pattern through next week. Guidance spread increases mid/late next week as an upper level trough amplifies over the East and a clipper-like low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The GFS and the ECMWF seem to have a better grasp on the evolution of this system versus the CMC, which seems to be a bit of an outlier. The GFS and ECMWF both show a more elongated structure to the upper trough while the CMC forms a closed low over the Ohio Valley. The GFS and ECMWF solutions fall closer to the ensemble mean solutions. WPC's afternoon forecast was created from a deterministic model blend, with more weight placed on the GFS and ECMWF than the CMC, and ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were added to help smooth out model differences mid-next week. This served as a good starting point that was consistent with the NBM. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation chances will linger into Sunday associated with an upper-low swinging through the Great Lakes/Northeast with a trailing cold front approaching the East Coast. Some additional showers are possible along the coast before the front clears, with the potential for a brief transition to a light wintry mix from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Snow showers also look to linger into Sunday for favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes and western/upslope regions of the Appalachians with cold, west- northwesterly post-frontal flow in place. This system will likely result in several inches of snowfall for New England and the Great Lakes. Following the departure of this system, precipitation chances decrease for most of the country early next week, except for portions of the Pacific Northwest that will see increasing precipitation as a Pacific system approaches. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible for regions along the Olympics and northern Cascades in Washington Sunday into Monday, though amounts look to remain within expected levels for this time of year, and there are no outlook areas for the Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Moderate snows will be possible for higher elevations. Elsewhere, additional upper-waves within mean-troughing over the Eastern U.S. could bring additional snow showers to favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes. These chances look to increase by mid-week as a more organized clipper-like system swings through the region underneath an amplifying upper trough. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase throughout the Gulf Coast region and northward along the East Coast mid-next week as moist return flow increases ahead of a stronger upper-wave and associated cold front. Temperatures this weekend and into early to mid-next week will trend above average across the Western and Central U.S. as an upper-ridge builds and remains anchored over the region. The greatest anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees are expected to expand from the Northern to Central Plains Sunday to Tuesday before returning a bit closer to average Wednesday-Thursday. Despite mean-upper troughing overhead, temperatures across the Eastern U.S. look to generally remain around average, and possibly even a bit above average for northern locations. Below average temperatures are likely across the Southeast Sunday-Monday following a cold front passage, and again on Thursday following another cold front passage. Dolan/Putnam Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$