888 FXUS02 KWBC 131958 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 ...Widespread Rain/Snow Pattern returns to the West and downstream Heavy Snow/Ice Threat for the North-Central U.S/Midwest next week... ...General Overview... A deepened southern stream low pressure system and moderate coastal low genesis downstream will affect the Southeast this weekend is forecast to exit the East Coast on Monday, followed by improving weather conditions. An expansive upper level ridge builds in from the southern Plains to the Midwest through the middle of the week, with widespread above normal temperatures and some breezy conditions accompanying it. This ridge slowly reaches the East Coast by Thursday with a return to warmer temperatures. Out West, a pattern change will be taking place with a large upper trough with embedded shortwave energies to work robubsty into the region, bringing needed moisture after the recent dry spell, with moderate to heavy rainfall for the California coast, and heavy terrain enhancing snows from California to the central and northern Rockies. Snow levels should lower quite a bit next week given anomalous upper trough/height falls and cooling. Downstream, potent shortwaves ejecting from the West into southwesterly upper flow will cross the Plains to take aim on deeper lower atmospheric cold air held over parts of the North- central U.S, Midwest/Great Lakes then slide toward the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast next week to offer a threat for heavy snow and impactful transitional ice zone. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest guidance remains in good overall agreement on the main synoptic scale pattern. While there remains lingering flow embedded system timing differences to navigate, predictability is better than normal with the overall pattern evolution and impactful threat expectations, if not local specifics going out with time. A broad blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the models, ensembles and machine learning systems seems to offer a solid forecast base generally in line overall with the National Blend of Models (NBM), WPC product continuity and main threat messaging. The main manually applied adjustment designed to improve NBM guidance was to increase south-central portions of the Rockies/Plains winds to be in line with ample concerns for emerging fire weather risks. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A potent shortwave trough approaching the central and southern California coast will likely be accompanied by an atmospheric river Monday with heavy rainfall for the lower elevations from near San Francisco to the greater Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas. A Marginal Risk will be valid for these areas on Monday, and a more confined Marginal Risk for Tuesday across southern California where the highest moisture flux should be and as additional and energetic shortwave trough energy will work through with less certain timing. There is the possibility that a Slight Risk could eventually be needed on Monday for the upslope areas of the Transverse Range if model guidance trends higher. Snow levels are expected to fall quite a bit with the shortwave and cold front moving inland, and this will limit the heavy rainfall potential going into Tuesday. Multiple feet of snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada through next week, and 1 to 2 feet of snowfall is probable for the higher ranges of the Intermountain West and the central/northern Rockies. This moisture will greatly help with the deteriorating drought situation across much of the Colorado River basin. The strong upper shortwave trough ejecting out over the Plains will spur surface cyclogenesis over the western High Plains by Tuesday afternoon across eastern Wyoming. This low should generally track across the Midwest and then reach the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley by Thursday. This offers an emerging signal in support of a swath of heavy snow and transitional ice/freezing rain zone threat. A strong pressure gradient south of the low will generate enhanced winds from western Texas to Wyoming, and combined with anomalous warmth and low humidity will likely result in elevated fire weather potential on Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday as well. To the north of the surface low will be a broad corridor of mainly stratiform precipitation from the Dakotas to Michigan, with snow on the northern edge. Temperatures will feel more like late March and April across a large portion of the south-central U.S. with the amplified upper ridge in place and downsloping winds from the Rockies. Highs are expected to be well into the 70s and low-mid 80s farther south into central and western Texas. The eastern U.S. will also get a welcomed warm-up after an extended period of very cold weather the past couple of weeks going into Wednesday and Thursday, as the warmth from the Plains builds eastward with a warm front lifting north. It should remain cold closer to the Canadian border as a strong surface high builds in behind a cold front, but the developing storm system to the south will limit the southern extent of this colder air mass. Colder than average conditions will generally be the rule across much of the West given the upper trough and more clouds and precipitation keeping daytime highs in check on most days. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$