406 FXUS02 KWBC 060711 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 211 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 ...Overview... A split upper flow pattern will be in place at the start of the medium range period on Monday, with a southern stream low over northern Mexico and ridging farther north across the West. To the north, a couple of shortwaves will traverse across the north- central U.S. with upper troughing exiting the Northeast by Tuesday, and one more day of chilly temperatures in the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. The pattern is forecast to translate eastward, with the ridge bringing much above average temperatures to the central U.S., and temperature moderation into the East as the week progresses. After a prolonged dry spell, precipitation will spread from the Pacific Northwest and across the West through the week as troughing builds in. Rain is likely across the south- central U.S. early week, and then precipitation could focus across the Ohio Valley and vicinity Tuesday-Wednesday. Another cut-off low/deep trough looks to move into the Southwest sometime late week, bringing renewed moisture from the Southwest into the south-central U.S.. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance shows fairly good agreement with the southern stream upper low over northern Mexico on Monday, but some timing variability continues Tuesday into Wednesday as it shifts eastward and weakens, becoming absorbed by the larger scale flow. On the large scale, this is not a big deal, but this does impact smaller scale details like QPF timing and coverage into the Ohio Valley and East. There is also some variability in the timing of northern stream shortwaves through the north-central U.S. and Great Lakes, but a general model blend seems to work as a good starting point. Bigger questions arise by Wednesday and beyond as deeper troughing develops off the West Coast. There has been a trend with recent model runs (including the new 00z guidance tonight) for more energy to be pulled westward and an overall slower trough progression into the Southwest late week. The 12z/yesterday CMC was a clear outlier with a much faster and stronger trough into the central U.S., and while the 00z run tonight did trend slower, it's still a bit faster than the consensus. Preferred the slower ECMWF/EC-AIFS with this feature, as that guidance was closest to the ensemble means. The latter period WPC forecast trended more towards the ensemble means to help smooth out the smaller scale differences impossible to resolve this far out. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday will help spread increasing precipitation across the Intermountain West early in the week. Energy downstream from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes/Northeast will also bring potential for mainly light precipitation. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast across Texas early week. As its supporting shortwave gets absorbed and a front moves slowly through the Ohio Valley, this should focus precipitation in that vicinity by around Tuesday and potentially reaching the East midweek. Some mixed precipitation and snow are possible across the northern part of the precipitation shield with details of wintry precipitation still very uncertain. The next system nearing the Southwest by the end of the week may begin to spread some precipitation into the Southwest and potentially the Central U.S. Thursday into Friday. As the trough exits the region, one more day of well below normal temperatures is likely through Monday across the Northeast before moderation by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the northern stream ridge traversing from the interior West to the central and eastern U.S. will produce well above normal temperatures. The Plains will see the greatest anomalies of 20-30 degrees above normal for early February, locally even higher. This puts highs in the 60s well north into Montana and South Dakota Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures may moderate some as the week progresses, but still generally at or slightly above normal. Warmer than average temperatures will also expand across the South to the Southeast and into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$