444 
FXUS02 KWBC 080536
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 11 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 15 2026


...Major heatwaves impact portions of the Southeast and North- 
Central U.S. this weekend...


...Overview...

A broad upper-level ridge expands and strengthens over the Central
U.S. this week, generating major heat risk concerns for portions 
of the North-Central CONUS beginning this weekend. Major to 
extreme heat risk continues for the Southeast beneath an amplifying
trough to the north and a retrograding Western Atlantic ridge this
weekend. Conditions begin to improve over the Southeast by early 
next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in good agreement regarding a fairly simple ridge-trough
pattern across the lower 48 during the medium range period. Some
small scale differences exist between models regarding embedded
shortwave energy within the expanding ridge in the Western/Central
U.S.. Beyond that, no significant differences exist in the
guidance. A general model blend consisting of available
deterministic and Ai guidance were used on days 3 and 4. This was
followed by gradually increasing ensemble means on days 5-7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Upper-level ridging builds over the Central U.S. late this week. 
This will promote above average temperatures and warm/moist 
southerly flow into the region. Temperatures are likely to be 10-20
degrees above average across parts of the Intermountain West and 
Northern Plains this weekend through early next week, where major 
to localized extreme heat risk will be a concern. Elsewhere, 
ridging in the Southeast will continue major to isolated extreme 
heat risk through the weekend, with heat indices between 105-115. A
deepening trough along the East Coast should bring some relief to 
the area by early next week, though Hazardous Heat is expected to 
continue across Florida through the whole period.

A synoptic front pushing south through the Midwest, Tennessee
Valley and Southeast will act as a focus for showers and 
thunderstorms beginning this weekend. Some storms may generate 
pockets of heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding.

A pattern shift featuring a Central U.S. ridge and weak East 
Pacific troughing may generate monsoonal storms across the 
Southwest beginning late this week and gradually increasing in 
coverage through the weekend and early next week. Heavy Rainfall 
is possible, with localized flash flooding a threat, particularly 
for more sensitive locations.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, 
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




















































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