147 FXUS02 KWBC 101957 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement on the highly amplified upper flow pattern through next week, albeit with ample smaller scale embedded feature differences and local focus variances increasing with time. WPC's medium-range pressures/fronts progs were created from a well clustered multi-model composite next Tuesday/Wednesday before adding into the mix guidance from the best compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means at longer time frames to help smooth out growing model differences, hopefully as consistent with individual predictability. Compared to the Canadian ensemble mean, the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means shade solutions a bit more toward digging energy farther westward over the west-central U.S. late next week and that idea, including Rockies snow potential, championed by some recent GFS/CMC model runs, seem reasonable given the anomolous amplitude with upstream upper ridge over the West Coast. This overall plan seems to provide a good forecast starting point and appears consistent with the 13 UTC NBM, but 12 UTC model guidance trends are mixed through less certain longer time frames. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Shortwaves aloft/clipper systems moving within mean-troughing over the Eastern U.S. are expected to bring snow showers to favorable lake-effect zones of the Great Lakes as well as portions of the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachians/northern Northeast. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase throughout the Gulf Coast region/Florida and northward up the East Coast mid- later next week as moist return flow attempts to return with upper system energy passages. The potential also exists for coastal low genesis near/offshore the East Coast Thursday/Friday, but it remains unclear how much of a weather hazard may develop despite favorable larger scale flow to monitor for a clearer signal. Temperatures early to mid-next week will trend above average across the Western and into the central U.S. as an upper-ridge builds and remains anchored over the West, possibly moderating fronm the north with frontal push late next week/weekend. There is also some indication for enhanced wind potential for southern California and vicinity to monitor given pressure gradients. The greatest anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees are expected to expand from the Northern to Central Plains into Tuesday. Despite mean-upper troughing overhead, temperatures across the Eastern U.S. look to generally shift from seasonal to below, but especially over the Southeast into later next week. Roth/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$