610 FXUS02 KWBC 190754 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jun 26 2026 ***Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat from the southern Plains to the Northeast U.S. early next week*** ***Building heat for the Southwest*** ...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... An overall quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the nation for the beginning of next week, and a broad upper trough becomes situated over the Great Lakes region and an upper ridge builds over the Southwest states. A frontal boundary draped across the south-central U.S. will keep multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms in place from the central Plains to the Mid- South, and another area of heavy rainfall for the Northeast on Monday. The 00Z models/ensembles were in generally good agreement for the first half of the forecast period, but the progressive flow leads to system timing differences that are difficult to determine towards the end of next week. Therefore, a blend of the guidance was utilized through mid-week, followed by increasing contributions from the ensemble means thereafter. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Given the risk of heavier rain on Monday, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is valid from Oklahoma to the central Appalachians. Some strong to severe thunderstorms can also be expected within this same general region. The front is forecast to clear the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday, but the trailing portion of the front is forecast to become stationary across the Southeast into the southern Plains. Lingering moisture in the region may support moderate to locally heavy rain later next week from the Plains eastward ahead of another system exiting the Rockies. Generally near to below normal temperatures appear likely for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country through the the middle of the week, with a slight moderation by the end of the week. The highest heat and humidity will be confined to Texas, near the Gulf Coast, and Florida where HeatRisk values will generally be between moderate and major. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures (and dry conditions) will prevail across the West with highs gradually climbing further into the 100s-110s in the Desert Southwest. Above normal temperatures will spread from the Northwest into the Great Basin/Rockies by midweek. Hamrick/Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$