237 FXUS06 KWBC 131902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon July 13 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 23 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period, and are consistent on underlying variations in the pattern through the period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model stronger due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend indicates a strong anomalous mid-level ridge with above normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the northwestern Contiguous United States (CONUS) extending northwestward to Southeast Alaska and eastern Mainland Alaska. The magnitude of the positive height anomalies is gradually forecast to diminish toward the end of the period. A trough and associated below normal 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the northeastern CONUS. A deep anomalous trough and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Bering Sea and western Mainland Alaska. Near- to modestly above-normal 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands in model forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS, due to expansive ridging and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across portions of northern Washington, and greater than 50 percent over most of the Florida Peninsula, which are related to above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the northeastern CONUS due to a retrograding trough. Near to below normal temperatures are also favored across parts of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the southern High Plains, as cloudiness and precipitation may keep maximum temperatures down. Below normal temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, due to predicted anomalous troughing. Due to the expected long duration of this trough, confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal temperatures for parts of the Alaska Peninsula and the southwestern Mainland. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a favorable position and orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal precipitation is favored across most of the West, Rockies, and High Plains, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of the Northern and Central Great Basin, the Southwest and surrounding regions. Above normal precipitation is also favored across much of the Eastern CONUS, related to a mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of America, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow, while below normal precipitation is forecast over Southeast Alaska, under predicted ridging and above normal 500-hPa heights, supported by both the operational autoblend and ERF consolidation precipitation forecast tools. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to reasonable good agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 21 - 27 2026 The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 8–14 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern, with some reduction of mid-level height anomalies relative to the 6–10 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. During the week-2 period, anomalous ridging centered over the northwestern CONUS is forecast to slowly de-amplify. The center of the subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a favorable position for an enhanced monsoon, while slowly drifting southward. Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the Northeast, with the trough retrograding toward the Ohio Valley before gradually weakening as the period progresses. Persistent troughing with weak 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over western Mainland Alaska and the Bering Sea well into week-2. Near to modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western and southern CONUS due to a continuation of anomalous ridging and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 50 percent chance) for above normal temperatures over Washington and the Florida peninsula.The higher probabilities in the Florida peninsula are related to above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic. Near normal temperatures are favored across most of the northcentral and the northeastern CONUS, as a trough retrogrades from southeastern Canada and weakens toward the end of the forecast period, consistent with most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Below normal temperatures are favored across southwestern Alaska, underneath predicted cyclonic flow, while above normal temperatures are likely over parts of eastern Mainland Alaska and most of Southeast Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa heights. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during at least the first half of week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal precipitation across most of the western and central CONUS. Enhanced odds for above normal precipitation are also favored across most of the eastern third of the CONUS, related to a mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow. Areas of near normal precipitation are favored over the central CONUS, associated with a weakening mid-level ridge, supported by the operational autoblend precipitation forecast tool. An active pattern is favored to continue across much of Alaska, due to persistent troughing. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to reasonable model agreement, offset by the potential for pattern de-amplication and the uncertainty regarding the precipitation outlook over the Central CONUS. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on July 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20210722 - 20220716 - 20110724 - 20240727 - 20160709 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20220715 - 20210721 - 20160708 - 20220709 - 20240726 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 19 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 21 - 27 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$