708 FXUS06 KWBC 031902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon August 03 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 13 2026 Model solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies from the 0Z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in reasonable agreement with regard to the synoptic picture over North America and surrounding regions and feature broad positive height anomalies and relatively zonal flow over the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Weak troughing is indicated over the Bering Sea and along the West Coast, and stronger troughing is indicated over Hudson Bay. While there are differences among the various ensembles, they all generally portray the pattern described to be persistent throughout the extended range forecast period, and a slight tendency of the troughs to continue to progressively deepen is noted. Model spread remains high over the North Pacific as noted in 500-hPa spaghetti charts, but confidence is much higher over eastern North America. Expansive positive height anomalies over much of North America favors above-normal temperatures across the CONUS and most of Alaska. This is especially true across the Lower 48, where odds exceeding 50% are almost universal from the Great Basin eastward all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard, and above 70% for portions of the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Weak troughing over the Bering Sea favors near-normal temperatures for the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutian Islands, while above-normal temperatures are most likely for the remainder of the state. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and increasing forcing from El Nino strongly favors above-normal temperatures across Hawaii. Model ensembles continue to depict an active southwestern monsoon, tilting the odds towards above-normal precipitation across portions of the Desert Southwest and southern California, while a very weak jet stream favors near-normal precipitation across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Weak troughing over Hudson Bay may produce weak frontal activity over the eastern CONUS, slightly tilting the odds towards above-normal precipitation east of the Mississippi River and along the Northern Plains, with slightly higher chances (40-50%) over portions of the Great Lakes, and the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys, near the trough axis. Ridging over the country's midsection may limit instability and convection over the south-central CONUS, resulting in a slight tilt towards below-normal precipitation for portions of East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Positive height anomalies are depicted over portions of the North Pacific, which results in a slight tilt towards below-normal precipitation for southern and southeastern coast of Alaska, while increasing troughing over the Bering Sea introduces a slight chance of above-normal precipitation for northwestern Alaska. Continued enhanced tropical convection tilts Hawaii towards above-average precipitation. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with good agreement among forecast tools, offset by moderate spread among ensemble solutions. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 11 - 17 2026 The synoptic setup across North America is expected to change little during week-2 relative to the 6-10 day period. Persistent ridging remains over much of the CONUS, and the most notable difference from the 6-10 day period is a slight deepening of troughing over the West Coast and Hudson Bay. Above-normal temperatures remain favored across nearly all of Alaska and the CONUS. Probabilities are slightly lower relative to the 6-10 day forecast period but remain above 50% for much of the south-central and southeastern CONUS, while near-normal temperatures are most likely over the Desert Southwest due to enhanced cloudiness and precipitation from the monsoon and along the West Coast, as indicated by most forecast tools. Below-normal temperatures are slightly favored for New England, under the influence of troughing over Hudson Bay. Above-normal temperatures continue to be indicated for most of Alaska, while troughing over the Aleutians is likely to result in near-normal temperatures for the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutians, and continued warm SSTs near Hawaii strongly tilt the odds towards above-normal temperatures for Hawaii. An active southwestern monsoon is depicted into week-2, favoring above-normal precipitation across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and High Plains, while increased troughing over Hudson Bay favors above-normal precipitation for the northeastern CONUS, with slightly higher odds (>40%) over portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Continued ridging over the Southern Tier may reduce the flow of Gulf moisture into the Great Plains, resulting in a slight tilt towards below-normal precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Troughing over the Bering Sea tilts the odds towards above-normal precipitation for northwestern Alaska, while ridging over the North Pacific favors near normal precipitation for Southeast Alaska. Hawaii continues to lean towards above-normal precipitation due to increased tropical convective activity. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with good agreement among forecast tools, offset by moderate spread among ensemble solutions. FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on August 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20210723 - 20170729 - 20190731 - 20010806 - 20210718 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19980714 - 20010805 - 20210723 - 20170728 - 19960816 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 09 - 13 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 11 - 17 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$