Map Disco: 20 September 2013

Topic: Colorado Flooding


Year-to-Date Rainfall Totals (Boulder, CO)
Comparing wettest and driest years to 2013
(Valid: 15 Sept 2013) - Climate Center


Composites (mean and anomaly): North America
300-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa temperature, precipitable water 
(21 Aug - 10 Sept) - ESRL


GFS Analyses and Forecasts: North America

Synoptic Overview (DT, Irro. wind/PW, MSLP/Jets, 500-hPa vort., 700-hPa wind/PW, PW std. anomalies)  (1 Sept - 18 Sept) - NCEP Operational Analysis
Synoptic Overview (850-hPa T/winds, 700-hPa streamfunction and wind/PW, Integrated Vapor Transport)  (1 Sept - 18 Sept) - NCEP Operational Analysis


Radar Imagery
3-day radar loop of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming  (0000 UTC 11 Sept - 0000 UTC 14 Sept) - UCAR


Four Fantastic Famous Flash Floods: Synoptic Setup
Rapid City, SD (10 June 1972)
300-hPa geopotential heights
850-hPa geopotential heights
Mean Sea Level Pressure
Precipitable water
Big Thompson Canyon, CO (1 August 1976)
300-hPa geopotential heights
850-hPa geopotential heights
1000-hPa geopotential heights
Precipitable water
Madison County, VA (27 June 1995)
300-hPa geopotential heights
850-hPa geopotential heights
1000-hPa geopotential heights
Precipitable water
Fort Collins, CO (29 July 1997)
300-hPa geopotential heights
850-hPa geopotential heights
1000-hPa geopotential heights
Precipitable water


Four Fantastic Famous Flash Floods: Soundings
2013 Colorado Flood (DNR - 0000 UTC 9/12/2013)
2013 Colorado Flood (DNR - 1200 UTC 9/12/2013)

2013 Colorado Flood (DNR - 0000 UTC 9/13/2013)
2013 Colorado Flood (DNR - 1200 UTC 9/13/2013)
Madison County, VA, Flood (IAD - 1200 UTC 6/27/1995)

Fort Collins, CO, Flood (DNR - 0000 UTC 7/29/1997)
Big Thompson, CO, Flood (DNR - 0000 UTC 8/1/1976)

Rapid City, SD, Flood (RAP - 0000 UTC 6/10/1972)


d(prog)/dt analyses:
d(prog)/dt analysis  (1200 UTC 11 Sept. - 1200 UTC 13 Sept.) - ECMWF
d(prog)/dt analysis  GFS - Kyle Griffin


Backward Trajectories (NOAA Hysplit Model)
0000 UTC 11 September (5000m, 2500m, 500m)
1200 UTC 11 September (3000m, 1500m, 500m)

0000 UTC 12 September (5000m, 2500m, 500m)
0000 UTC 12 September (3000m, 1500m, 500m)
0000 UTC 12 September - KDNR Sounding
1200 UTC 12 September (5000m, 2500m, 500m)

1200 UTC 12 September (3000m, 1500m, 500m)
0000 UTC 13 September (5000m, 2500m, 500m)

0000 UTC 13 September (3000m, 1500m, 500m)
1200 UTC 13 September (5000m, 2500m, 500m)
1200 UTC 13 September (3000m, 1500m, 500m)


Articles and Documentation
Colorado's "biblical" flood by the numbers  Washington Post - Capital Weather Gang
Flood ravaged Boulder, CO, sets annual rainfall record
  KitsapSun
Inside the Colorado deluge  NCAR/UCAR - Bob Henson
Against the 100-year flood  - Roger Pielke, Jr.
Exceedance Probability Analysis of the Colorado Flood Event, 9-16 September 2013  - HDSC/NWS/NOAA
Exceedance Probability Analysis of the Colorado Flood Event, 9-16 September 2013 (Version 2)  - HDSC/NWS/NOAA


Products

Mesa Lab Conditions
  - NCAR

North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake (11:30AM 15 Sept) - NOAA
South Platte River near Kersey (8:30AM 14 Sept) - NOAA
20th Century Reanalysis Precipitable Water over Colorado  - Gregory Carbin
SREF analyses - Rich Grumm
Rich Grumm Product Suite - Rich Grumm
Watches/Warnings Issued - Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Radar Imagery - University of Oklahoma
HRRR Precipitation PowerPoint Presentation   - Stan Benjamin
HRRR 15h Total Precip (in), MSLP (mb)  (Valid: 0300 UTC 9/12/2013) - HRRR
HRRR 15h Total Precip (in), MSLP (mb)  (Valid: 0900 UTC 9/12/2013) - HRRR
HRRR 15h Total Precip (in), MSLP (mb)  (Valid: 1500 UTC 9/12/2013) - HRRR
HRRR 15h Total Precip (in), MSLP (mb)  (Valid: 2100 UTC 9/12/2013) - HRRR
Monthly Precipitation in Boulder, CO  - NOAA ESRL
River gauges and observations  - NOAA AHPS
1 day observed precipitation  (Valid: 1200 UTC 9/12/2013) - NOAA AHPS
12-h rainfall map  (Valid: 9:46PM 9/12/2013) - Jonathan Vigh
Boulder Flood Schematic  (0000 UTC 9/12/2013) - Sheldon Kusselson
Percent of Normal Precipitation (zoomed in)  (9/6/2013 - 9/12/2013) - Regional Climate Centers
Percent of Normal Precipitation (zoomed out)  (9/6/2013 - 9/12/2013) - Regional Climate Centers
Radar Estimated Precipitation (72 h accumulation)  (Valid: 1200 UTC 9/13/2013) - Q3
1948-2012 Denver Surface-300 hPa Precipitable Water  - Max, Min, Percentiles
7-day Precipitation (Colorado)  (Valid: 1200 UTC 9/13/2013) - NOAA
48-h precipitation (Tennessee Valley Flood May 2010)  (Valid: 1200 UTC 10/5/2013) - Colorado State
12-h precipitation (Colorado Flood 2013)  (Valid: 1200 UTC 9/12/2013) - Colorado State
48-h precipitation (Colorado Flood 2013)  (Valid: 1200 UTC 9/12/2013) - Colorado State
ECMWF "Extreme Forecast Index" for 1-3 day precipitation  (Valid: 0000 UTC 9/11/2013) - GEFS
GEFS "Extreme Forecast Index" for 1-5 day precipitation  (Valid: 0000 UTC 9/10/2013) - ECMWF
"Colorado Flood: A few images and thoughts"  - Rich Grumm
HRRR convective probability forecast - (Valid: 2300 UTC 9/19/2013) - HRRR


Photos and Video

(Video) Crestview Elementary Flooding  (13 Sept) - Mohan Ramamurthy
Bear Creek Flooding  - Howie Bluestein
South Platte River near Weldona (2:45PM 14 Sept) - Edward Szoke
Wagon Wheel Bunkhouse (before and after) - Gregory Carbin
"Hawthorne from Goat Trail" - Photo taken by Dan Brillon
"Just off of Linden" - Photo taken by Dan Brillon
"Looking up Hawthorne from 6th" - Photo taken by Dan Brillon
Mitchell Lane - Jonathan Vigh
Mitchel Lane 2 - Jonathan Vigh
Big Thompson Canyon Mouth - Jonathan Vigh
1976 - Big Thompson Canyon Mouth - Jonathan Vigh
I-25 at Big Thompson - Jonathan Vigh
(Video) Areal tour of Fort Collins and Loveland Floods  - Coloradoan.com


References

Moore, Benjamin J., Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser, Michael L. Jurewicz, 2013: Synoptic-Scale Environments of Predecessor Rain Events Occurring East of the Rocky Mountains in Association with Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones*. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1022–1047.

Moore, Benjamin J., Paul J. Neiman, F. Martin Ralph, Faye E. Barthold, 2012: Physical Processes Associated with Heavy Flooding Rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and Vicinity during 1–2 May 2010: The Role of an Atmospheric River and Mesoscale Convective Systems*. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 358–378.

Rasmussen, Kristen L., Robert A. Houze, 2012: A Flash-Flooding Storm at the Steep Edge of High Terrain: Disaster in the Himalayas. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1713–1724.

Pontrelli, Michael D., George Bryan, J. M. Fritsch, 1999: The Madison County, Virginia, Flash Flood of 27 June 1995. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 384–404.

Caracena, Fernando, Robert A. Maddox, L. Ray Hoxit, Charles F. Chappell, 1979: Mesoanalysis of the Big Thompson Storm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1–17.  

Maddox, Robert A., Lee R. Hoxit, Charles F. Chappell, Fernando Caracena, 1978: Comparison of Meteorological Aspects of the Big Thompson and Rapid City Flash Floods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 375–389.

Weaver, John D., Eve Gruntfest, Glenn M. Levy, 2000: Two Floods in Fort Collinds, Colorado: Learning from a Natural Disaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2359–2366.


Real-time Analyses and Other Products:
SPC Meso Archive
National Snow Analyses - NOHRSC
World Climate Index Map
Mike Ventrice's TRMM Precipitation / MJO Filtered VP200 hPa / 200 hPa Winds
Wyoming Sounding Page
Twister Data
National Buoy Data Center
Storm Prediction Center Meso-analysis
Penn State's EWALL Model Page
High Resolution Rapid Refresh Home Page
Kyle Griffin's Maps: Main Page
Ron-Mctaggart Cowan's DT Maps and Coupling Index
Heather Archambault's 2013 GFS Analyses
Tom Galarneau's Real Time Diagnostics
RAP-UCAR Real-Time Weather Data
Digital Typhoon - Typhoon Images and Information
PSD Maproom - ESRL
NeXt Generation Weather Lab - College of DuPage
Free Relief Maps
Modis Satellite Imagery World Viewer