For a variety of reasons, small but intense cyclones are very poorly predicted over the Arctic even by the most skillful NWP models. The inability to predict this forcing is a predictability barrier that must be overcome if intra- and interseasonal predictions of sea ice are to become a reality. The overarching objective of this DRI is to gain a new understanding of the basic processes governing the development and evolution of Arctic cyclones as well as their relationship to tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) and their influence on coupled air-sea-ice processes.
Scientific Issues Supported investigations focus on the understanding Arctic cyclones, their mesoscale attendant features (e.g., low-level jets, fronts, tropopause folds), polar lows, and TPVs through theory, simulations, observations and model development. Besides identifying the shortcomings of current NWP models, a goal is to identify methods to improve the skill of future NWP systems. The following are examples of some research topics that are envisioned to address the overarching scientific issues related to improving prediction of these phenomena:
For more info on the DRI, visit the ONR Arctic DRI page.
The ONR Arctic DRI meeting was held on May 19 (at the CIRES Fellow Room, U. Colorado Campus. The meeting focused on a discussion of observing strategies and requirements for the field campaign portion of the DRI form the perspective of the PI's project goals.
PIs: log-in for a copy of the agenda
A half-day meeting was held on Thursday Dec 13 in the Arctic Community Meeting Rooms hosted by ARCUS at the Cambria Hotel Washington, D.C. Convention Center
PIs: log-in for a copy of the agenda
The Arctic Cyclone DRI kick-off meeting took place in Monterey, CA on May 30-31, 2018. Over the two day meeting, the PIs presented their proposed projects and discussed future avenues of collaboration.
Four key research areas were highlighted:
The ONR DRI research team includes scientists affliated with 12 projects. The project titles and team members can be found below:
|Cecilia Bitz (PI) and Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (Co-PI)||University of Washington||Advancing understanding of Arctic sea ice and weather interactions in summer and fall to improve forecasts on day to month timescales|
|Lance Bosart (PI) and Daniel Keyser (co-PI)||University at Albany, SUNY||Phenomenological and Predictability Studies of the Structure and Evolution of Arctic Cyclones, Polar Lows, and Tropopause polar vortices|
|David Bromwich (PI) and Zhiquan (Jake) Liu, Ian Simmonds (co-PIs)||Ohio State University||Characteristics and Predictability of Arctic Cyclones|
|Steven Businger (PI) and Paolo Antonelli (co-PI)||University of Hawaii||Advanced Use of Soundings from Hyperspectral IR Space-borne Observations to Improve Arctic Prediction|
|Steven Cavallo (PI) and Bill Skamarock (co-PI)||University of Oklahoma & NCAR||Tropopause polar vortices and multi-scale Arctic predictability|
|James Doyle (PI) and Neil Barton, Dave Ryglicki, Yi Jin, Anthony Bucholtz, and Will Komarom (co-PIs)||NRL||Multi-scale Simulation and Predictability of Arctic Cyclones and Their Influence on Sea Ice|
|Ron Ferek (PI)||ONR||Applied Arctic Research|
|Andrea Lang (PI)||University at Albany, SUNY||Understanding the role of the stratosphere in subseasonal–to–seasonal variability and predictability of Arctic weather systems|
|Ryan Torn (PI)||University at Albany, SUNY||Comparison of Polar and Midlatitude Cyclone Predictability using Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis|
|David Parsons (PI) and Steven Cavalllo (co-PI)||University of Oklahoma||Understanding and Improving Prediction of the Impacts of Rossby Wave Breaking on Tropopause Polar Vortices and Arctic Cyclones|
|Ola Persson (PI) and Janet Intrieri, Matthew Shupe, Amy Solomon, Gijs de Boer (co-PIs)||NOAA/ESRL||Arctic Cyclone Interactions with Tropopause Polar Vortices, Free-Troposphere Diabatic Forcing, and the Surface|
|Xuguang Wang (PI) and Aaron Johnson (co-PI)||University of Oklahoma||Understanding and Improving the Predictability of Arctic Meso- and Synoptic-scale Cyclones through Multi-scale Ensemble based Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecast|
|Zhuo Wang (PI) and Melinda Peng, John Walsh (co-PIs)||University of Illinois||Cross-latitude Teleconnection via Rossby Wave Breaking and Its Impacts on Arctic Variability and Prediction|
DRI PIs can find more info by logging in here.
This ONR Departmental Research Initiative (DRI) is to enhance the understanding of dynamics of Arctic cyclones and their relationship to the tropopause polar vortex (TPV).
The DRI is motivated by recent studies which lent support to the hypothesis that year-to-year variations in sea ice are driven to a great extent by a relatively small number of intense storms—Arctic cyclones.
The DRI meeting took place on May 19, 2019 on the University of Colorado-Boulder Campus as a side meeting to the AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography. The meeting included short summary presentations of research progress and desired observational capabilites on a future field campaign from all of the DRI PIs.
DRI Program Officer:
Dr. Ronald J. Ferek
Marine Meteorology and Space Program
Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Research Division, Code 322
Office of Naval Research
Email: Ron dot Ferek at navy.mil