Sunday, September 22, 2013

 

Dinner (6:00 - 8:00 PM)

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Monday, September 23, 2013

 

Breakfast (7:00 - 8:00 AM)

 

Session 1: Midlatitude Cyclone Structure, Evolution and Processes (8:00 - 10:00 AM)

Chair: Andrea Lang

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Gyakum

A Reanalysis of Extreme Cyclone Processes: Tropical, Extratropical, and Otherwise

PPTX

8:20 - 8:40

Plante

Storm Tracks across Eastern Canada

PDF

8:40 - 9:00

Mitchell

Northeast Winter Cyclones Associated With Significant Upper Level Easterly Wind Anomalies

PDF

9:00 - 9:20

Ferreira

Structure and Propagation of Midlatitude Cyclones in the Southeastern United States

PPTX

9:20 - 9:40

Cohen

The Evolution of Fronts and Cyclones over the U.S. 2012-2013

PPTX

9:40 - 10:00

Hewson

Why Rainfall May Reduce When the Ocean Warms

PPT

 

Coffee Break (10:00 - 10:20 AM)

 

Session 2: Jets, Fronts and Airstreams (10:20 AM - 12:20 PM)

Chair: Steven Cavallo

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

10:20 - 10:40

Martius

A Lagrangian Climatology of Tropical and Extratropical Forcing of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet

PPTX

10:40 - 11:00

Griffin

Examining Preferred Modes of Intraseasonal Variability of the North Pacific Jet

PPTX

11:00 - 11:20

RiviŹre

A Potential Vorticity Perspective on the Motion of Midlatitude Surface Cyclones: Theory and Real Case Studies

PPT

11:20 - 11:40

Attard

A Climatology of Lower Stratospheric Fronts in North America

PDF

11:40 - 12:00

Christenson

A Synoptic-Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Jet Superposition Events

PPTX

12:00 - 12:20

Winters

Investigation of the Dynamical Mechanisms Facilitating Jet Superposition during the 2010 Nashville Flood

PPTX

 

Lunch (12:20 - 1:20 PM)

 

Session 3: Hurricane Sandy: Research Opportunities (1:20 - 3:00 PM)

Chair: Ben Schenkel

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

1:20 - 1:40

Zhang

Dynamics and Predictability of Sandy’s Track and Rainfall

PPT

1:40 - 2:00

Vigh

Evaluation of the Simulated Structure of Hurricane Sandy Using Synthetic Flight Paths

PPTX

2:00 - 2:20

Colucci

An Investigation of the Interaction Between Hurricane Sandy and its Large-Scale Environment

PPT

2:20 - 2:40

Gloeckler

The Evolution of the Largescale Extratropical Flow Pattern Associated with West Pacific Tropical Convection Prior to the Genesis of Superstorm Sandy

PDF

2:40 - 3:00

Bosart

Hurricane Sandy (2012):  A Multiscale Analysis and Perspective

PPTX

 

Recreation (3:00 - 6:00 PM)

 

Dinner (6:00 - 8:00 PM)

 

Evening Session: Hurricane Sandy Retrospective (8:00 - 10:00 PM)

Moderator: Lance Bosart

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Shapiro

The Life Cycle of Hurricane Sandy

PPTX

8:20 - 8:40

Torn

Diagnosis of the Extreme Track Forecast Differences of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

PPT

8:40 - 9:00

Grams

Quantification of Hurricane Sandy's Impact on the Midlatitude Flow

PDF

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

 

Breakfast (7:00 - 8:00 AM)

 

Session 4: Snowstorms, Rossby Waves and Global Energetics (8:00 - 10:00 AM)

Chair: Heather Archambault

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Schultz

Thermal and Microphysical Structure of the 8-9 February 2013 Northeast U.S. Blizzard

PPT

8:20 - 8:40

Kenyon

The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

PPTX

8:40 - 9:00

Bowley

A 1979-2012 Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Available Potential Energy: Source/sink regions and Short-term Increase Events

PDF

9:00 - 9:20

Lupo

Using Enstrophy Advection as a Diagnostic to Identify Blocking Regime Transformation

PDF

9:20 - 9:40

Wirth

Rossby Wave Trains as Precursors to Strong Cyclones

PPTX

9:40 - 10:00

Colle

Rossby Wave Packet Climatology and the Impact of Hemispheric Flow Patterns and ENSO

PPTX

 

Coffee Break (10:00 - 10:20 AM)

 

Session 5: Tropical Cyclone Structure and Evolution (10:20 AM - 12:00 PM)

Chair: Brian Tang

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

10:20 - 10:40

Nguyen

Intensification of an Asymmetric, Sheared Tropical Cyclone in a WRF Simulation

PPTX

10:40 - 11:00

Riemer

Lagrangian Analysis of a Tropical Cyclone in Vertical Shear

PPTX

11:00 - 11:20

Scheck

The Impact of Vertical Shear on Hurricane-like Vortices with Moist Neutral Cores

PDF

11:20 - 11:40

Corbosiero

Investigating the Factors Responsible for Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Ensemble of High-resolution Hurricane Simulations

PDF

11:40 - 12:00

Abarca

Balanced and Unbalanced Aspects of Secondary Eyewall Formation


 

Lunch (12:00 - 1:00 PM)

 

Session 6: Extreme Wind and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones (1:00 - 3:20 PM)

Chair: Russ Schumacher

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

1:00 - 1:20

Moore

Planetary- and Synoptic-scale Processes Contributing to Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in Nashville, Tennessee and Vicinity During 1-2 May 2010

PPTX

1:20 - 1:40

Milrad

The Role of Anticyclones in Extreme Precipitation Events:  An Examination of the Record-setting Alberta Flood of June 2013

PPTX

1:40 - 2:00

Hardy

Cyclone Interactions in the 23-26 September 2012 UK Floods

PPTX

2:00 - 2:20

Čampa

Moisture Transport in Mediterranean Cyclones Leading to Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Events

PPTX

2:20 - 2:40

Slater

Acceleration of High Winds in Idealised Simulations of Extratropical Cyclones

PPTX

2:40 - 3:00

Raveh-Rubin

The Role of Mediterranean Cyclones for Producing Large-scale Precipitation Extremes

PPTX

3:00 - 3:20

Froidevaux and Giannakaki

Atmospheric Precursors to Floods in Switzerland and Heavy Precipitation Events in Northern Switzerland

PDF

 

Recreation (3:20 - 6:00 PM)

 

Dinner (6:00 - 8:00 PM)

 

Evening Session: Upper Tropospheric - Lower Stratospheric Interactions (8:00 - 10:00 PM)

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:30

Lang

Autumnal Season Extratropical Transition Events and Their Impact on the Early Wintertime Stratospheric Circulation

PDF

8:30 - 8:50

McTaggart-Cowan

Representing the Stratosphere in Low-topped NWP Models

PDF

8:50 - 9:10

Tripoli

Upper Level Energy Interactions between Tropical Cyclones and the Environment

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

 

Breakfast (7:00 - 8:00 AM)

 

Session 7: Midlatitude Convection and Severe Weather (8:00 - 10:00 AM)

Chair: Nick Metz

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Nisi

Hailstorms Analysis over the Swiss Alpine Region

PPTX

8:20 - 8:40

Guastini

Progressive Derechos: Their Initiation, Maintenance, and Predictability

PPTX

8:40 - 9:00

Bluestein

A Butterfly Flaps its Wings in Texas and Tornadoes Are Not Produced in Oklahoma

PPTX

9:00 - 9:20

Markowski

Why Do Low LCLs and Strong Low-level Environmental Vertical Wind Shear Favor Tornadoes?

PPTX

9:20 - 9:40

Richardson

Tornado Maintenance and Demise in the Goshen County, Wyoming Supercell of 5 June 2009 Intercepted by VORTEX2

PPT

9:40 - 10:00

Schumacher

A Very Early Look at the Historic September 2013 Rainfall and Flooding in Colorado

PPTX

 

Coffee Break (10:00 - 10:20 AM)

 

Session 8: Numerical Weather Prediction: Forecast Assessment (10:20 AM - 12:20 PM)

Chair: Ryan Torn

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

10:20 - 10:40

Grams

Feature-based Forecast Assessment of (Extra-)tropical Cyclones during the YOTC (2008-2010) Period

PDF

10:40 - 11:00

Lillo

Investigating the Dynamics of Error Growth in ECMWF Forecast Busts

PPT

11:00 - 11:20

Ancell

The Role of Nonlinear Perturbation Evolution in Best-guess Forecasts of Land-falling Midlatitude Cyclones

PPTX

11:20 - 11:40

Lamberson

The Impact of Forecast Error Growth on the Medium-Range Predictability of a European Cyclone

PDF

11:40 - 12:00

Chang

Impacts of Rossby Wave Packets on Forecast Uncertainties and Errors

PPT

12:00 - 12:20

Arbogast

A Ten-year Experiment of Real-time Potential Vorticity Modifications and Inversions at Meteo-France

PPT

 

Lunch (12:20 - 1:20 PM)

 

Session 9: Midlatitude - Tropical Interactions (1:20 - 3:40 PM)

Chair: Christian Grams

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

1:20 - 1:40

Schiraldi

North American Blocking Events Associated with Slow and Fast Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection

PPTX

1:40 - 2:00

MacRitchie

The MJO Anticyclonic Wavebreaking, and NH Predictability

PDF

2:00 - 2:20

Small

A Study of Warm Season Blocking in the Pacific

PPTX

2:20 - 2:40

Quinting

The Impact of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Rossby Wave Packets: A Climatological Perspective

PDF

2:40 - 3:00

Archambault

Using Ensembles to Diagnose the Tropical Cyclone-Extratropical Flow Interaction Associated with Recurving Typhoon Malakas (2010)

PPTX

3:00 - 3:20

Metz

Upstream Precursors to a Multi-day Severe Weather Outbreak over the United States

PPT

3:20 - 3:40

Moore

A Climatological Comparison of Predecessor Rain Events and Diabatic Rossby Vortices Associated with Recurving Tropical Cyclones

PPTX

 

Recreation (3:40 - 6:00 PM)

 

Dinner (6:00 - 8:00 PM)

 

Evening Session: The Current and Future State of Synoptic Analysis and Forecasting (8:00 - 10:00 PM)

Moderator: Ron McTaggart-Cowan

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Carr

Thoughts on Improving the U.S. Weather Prediction Enterprise

PPT

8:20 - 8:40

Davies

Formulations, Fallacies and the Future of the Quasi-Geostrophic ω-Equation

PPTX

8:40 - 10:00

Panelists

Introductory Statements & Discussion

Carr, Davies, Lackmann, Shapiro

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Thursday, September 26, 2013

 

Breakfast (7:00 - 8:00 AM)

 

Session 10: Polar Climate and Sea Ice (8:00 - 10:00 AM)

Chair: Melissa Gervais

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:00 - 8:20

Martin

Trends in the Lower Tropospheric Wintertime Cold Pool over the Past 65 Years

PPT

8:20 - 8:40

Terpstra

Moist Baroclinicity: A Unifying Perspective on Polar Low Development

PPTX

8:40 - 9:00

Cavallo

Changes in the Lifecycles of Tropopause Polar Vortices from Arctic Sea Ice Loss

PDF

9:00 - 9:20

Lusk

A WRF Model Simulation of Changes in the Characteristics of Tropopause Polar Vortices Due to Sea Ice Loss

PDF

9:20 - 9:40

Turchioe

An Analysis of the Intense Arctic Cyclone of August 2012

PPT

9:40 - 10:00

Szapiro

Simulation of an Arctic Summer Cyclone Using MPAS

PPTX

 

Coffee Break (10:00 - 10:20 AM)

 

Session 11: Tropical Cyclone Prediction, Size and Intensity Change (10:20 AM - 12:20 PM)

Chair: Sergio Abarca

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

10:20 - 10:40

Harr

Air-Ocean Factors throughout the Formation and Intensification of Typhoon Malakas during the Impact of Typhoons on the Pacific (ITOP) Field Program

PPTX

10:40 - 11:00

Stevenson

Linking Lightning Activity to Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Earl (2010)

PDF

11:00 - 11:20

Rios-Berrios

Assessing the Impact of Initial Condition Errors on Forecasts of Hurricane Katia (2011)

PDF

11:20 - 11:40

Elless

A Climatology of ECMWF Ensemble Hurricane Track Forecast Variability

PDF

11:40 - 12:00

Schenkel

The Role of Large-scale Environment in Determining North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Size

PPTX

12:00 - 12:20

Papin

A Climatology of Central American Gyres

PPTX

 

Lunch (12:20 - 1:20 PM)

 

Session 12: Climate Change: Diagnosis and Prediction (1:20 - 3:40 PM)

Chair: Olivia Martius

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

1:20 - 1:40

Gervais

Representing Extremes in Gridded Precipitation analyses: Impacts of Station Density, Resolution, and Gridding Methods

PDF

1:40 - 2:00

Lombardo

Future Variations in Cool Season Precipitation along the US East Coast

PPT

2:00 - 2:20

Marciano

Climate Change and US East Coast Cyclones

PPTX

2:20 - 2:40

Lackmann

Hurricane Sandy and Anthropogenic Climate Change

PPTX

2:40 - 3:00

Willison

The Future of Latent Heat Release in Type C Cyclones

PDF

3:00 - 3:20

Michaelis

Numerical Simulations and Climate Change of Northeast Snowstorms

PPTX

3:20 - 3:40

Deroche

Detection of Events Impacting the Insurance Industry in PiControl, Historical and RCP4.5 Experiments from the CMIP5 Project

PPTX

 

Poster Pitches (3:40 - 3:58 PM)

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

3:40 - 3:42

Spengler

Synoptic Evolution and Dynamic Characteristics of the Extreme Norwegian Winter Storm Dagmar

PDF

3:42 - 3:44

Keller

Investigating the Impact of Typhoon Choi-Wan on the Midlatitude Flow Using Eddy Kinetic Energy Analysis

PDF

3:44 - 3:46

Archambault

Quantification of the Impact of Extratropical Transition on the Midlatitude Flow: From Case Studies to a Composite View

PDF

3:46 - 3:48

Fierro

Explicit Electrification and Lightning Forecasts and Cloud Scale Lightning Data Assimilation in the WRF-ARW Model

PDF

3:48 - 3:50

McTaggart-Cowan

A Most Excellent Global Climatology of Baroclinically Influenced Tropical Cyclogenesis

PPT

3:50 - 3:52

Froidevaux

Atmospheric Precursors to Floods in Switzerland

PDF

3:52 - 3:54

Giannakaki

Heavy Precipitation Events in Northern Switzerland

PDF

3:54 - 3:56

Booth

Midlatitude Storms in a Moister World: Lessons from Idealized Baroclinic Life Cycle Experiments

PDF

3:56 - 3:58

McMurdie

OLYMPEX: A Ground Validation Campaign on the Olympic Peninsula in the Pacific Northwest

PDF

 

Recreation (3:58 - 6:00 PM)

 

Dinner (6:00 - 8:00 PM)

 

Poster Session (8:00 - 10:00 PM)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Friday, September 27, 2013

 

Breakfast (7:00 - 8:20 AM)

 

Session 13: Warm Conveyor Belts (8:20 - 10:00 AM)

Chair: Rich Moore

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

8:20 - 8:40

Pfahl

Quantifying the Relevance of Cyclones and Warm Conveyor Belts for Precipitation Extremes

PPTX

8:40 - 9:00

Bottcher

Numerical Study on the Impact of Low-level Moisture Modification on Warm Conveyor Belts

PPT

9:00 - 9:20

Madonna

Warm Conveyor Belts: Dynamical Significance and Forecast Verification

PPT

9:20 - 9:40

Schafler

Aircraft Measurements within a Warm Conveyor Belt during the T-NAWDEX-FALCON Campaign

PDF

9:40 - 10:00

Witlox

A 5 year ECHAM6-HAM2 Simulation to Study Cloud-aerosol Interactions in Warm Conveyor Belts

PDF

 

Coffee Break (10:00 - 10:20 AM)

 

Session 14: Tropical Cyclogenesis (10:20 AM - 12:20 PM)

Chair: Kristen Corbosiero

 

Time

Presenter

Title

Presentation

10:20 - 10:40

Tang

Moist Diagnostics in the Axisymmetric Spin Up of Tropical Cyclones

PPTX

10:40 - 11:00

Hankes

Thermodynamic Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Formation

PPTX

11:00 - 11:20

Helms

Composite Analyses of Tropical Convective Systems Prior to Tropical Cyclogenesis

PPTX

11:20 - 11:40

Wang

Contribution of Cumulus Congestus and Stratiform Precipitation in Tropical Cyclone Formation

PPTX

11:40 - 12:00

Dunkerton

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

PPT

12:00 - 12:20

Bentley

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic

PPTX

 

Lunch (12:20 - 1:20 PM)

 

End of Workshop