Friday Map Discussion: 16 March 2007

 

Friday Map Discussion Archive 

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All attachments:  http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/mapdisc_03-16-07/

 

Hi Folks,

 

        After a one-week hiatus for the 32nd annual Northeastern

Storm Conference, Friday map discussion resumed on 16 Mar'07. The

focus was on the St. Patrick's Day snowstorm that was impacting the

Northeast. Of interest was the zonally contracted and meridionally

elongated trough responsible for the East Coast development.

 

        The following images are attached to help support the discussion:

 

1. Maps of dynamic tropopause (DT) pressure (hPa) and winds (kt), and

sea level pressure (hPa) and 925 hPa potential temperature from the

University of Utah model page (Steenburgh) from 0000 UTC 12, 14, 16

and 17 Mar, and 1200 UTC 16 and 17 Mar.

 

2. CONUS water vapor (WV) imagery from NCAR/RAP for 2345 UTC 15 Mar,

1145, 1745 and 2345 UTC 16 Mar, and 0445 and 1145 UTC 17 Mar.

 

3. Regional base reflectivity image for 0000 UTC 17 Mar.

 

4. KENX base reflectivity imagery 0458, 0557, and 0655 UTC 17 Mar.

 

5. ALB soundings for 0000 and 0600 UTC 17 Mar.

 

6. Plotted surface observations from NCAR/RAP for 0300, 0600 and 0900

UTC 17 Mar.

 

7. NCEP/NAM initialized 850 hPa analysis for 0600 UTC 17 Mar.

 

8. NCEP/GFS initialized 300 hPa analyses for 0000 and 1200 UTC 16 and 17 Mar.

 

9. Precipitable water (PW) imagery for 0931 and 2118 UTC 16 Mar. and

0936Z 17 Mar from http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu.  

 

        The DT/925 hPa maps and GFS 300 hPa analyses show that the

storm occurred in conjunction with the development of a zonally

contracted and meridionally amplified trough that took on a negative

tilt. The subsequent trough amplification allowed for the tapping of

a tropical moisture plume (see attached PW imagery) that was in place

over the Gulf of Mexico and extreme western Atlantic. The high PW

region (valuers > 35 mm) was located ahead of a slow-moving

subsynoptic scale DT disturbance that formed via fracture from a PV

tail over the western and central US between 12-14 Mar. As this

fractured DT disturbance moved eastward across Texas it was

responsible for triggering several mesoscale convective systems

(MCSs) over eastern and southern Texas. These MCSs moved E/ESE along

the Gulf coast and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. They fed on the

aforementioned tropical moisture plume.

 

        Trough development and amplification was also accompanied by

flanking upstream and downstream ridge amplification. The signature

of this trough/ridge development and evolution, seen very nicely in

the attached WV imagery, was *not* typical of classic downstream

development. Earlier in the week (Tu) the GFS ensemble forecasts for

Fri/Sat exhibited what appeared to be relatively large uncertainty in

conjunction with the forecast eastern US trough development and

coastal storm. Solutions ranged from no storm, a weak storm going

well out to sea, a moderately intense storm along the coast and a

storm tracking well inland along the Appalachians. A real Alice's

Restaurant potpourri of solutions. It is likely that regional GFS

predictability was below average for this event at the 72-96 h time

scale. If this conjecture is confirmed by subsequent model skill

numbers the event is worthy of further investigation for this reason

alone.

 

A noteworthy aspect of the storm development was the absence

of a coupled jet structure in the upper troposphere. Instead, the

developing cyclone and elongated precipitation shield was confined to

the right-entrance region of the downstream 300 hPa jet. This

downstream 300 hPa jet remained quite meridionally amplified during

the 36 h development period ending 1200 UTC 17 Mar, suggestive of a

possible role for diabatic heating in downstream jet maintenance.

 

        The attached KENX radar imagery surrounding 0600 UTC 17 Mar,

NCAR/RAP surface maps for 0300, 0600 and 0900 UTC 17 Mar, the 0000

and 0600 UTC 17 Mar ALB soundings, the 0600 UTC 17 Mar NCEP/NAM 850

hPa analysis, and the appended metar obs show the following:

 

1) The precipitation shield was highly elongated along the coast

(consistent with the PW imagery).

 

2) An intense thermal band was present at 850 hPa across southern New

York and New England.

 

3) This intense thermal band sloped NW with height based on the 0600

UTC 17 Mar ALB sounding.

 

4) The surface low propagated NNE along a moderately intense coastal front.

 

5) The surface low deepened modestly at best and was just under 1000

hPa at 1200 UTC 17 Mar.

 

6) Mesosclae precipitation band development was evident just to the

south and east of ALB a few hours on either side of 0600 UTC 17 Mar.

Higher base reflectivities in this band may also be a partial result

of sleet mixing in with the snow as stations NE/E/SE of ALB

(Bennington, VT, DDH; North Adams, MA, AQW, and Pittsfield, MA, PSF)

all reported a changeover from snow to sleet (no question, however,

that the highest snowfall totals.....22-24".....occurred just to the

south and east of ALB).

 

7. A complex surface frontal structure existed over eastern New

England as the surface low moved NNE across western Cape Cod and

Massachusetts Bay. BOS and PVC (Provincetown, MA), separated by ~60

km, reported a 10 C temperature difference near 1200 UTC 17 Mar as

the low steered NNE along the coastal front. Likewise, a second, and

weaker, thermal boundary marked by a wind shift from ENE to NNW was

located in the colder air over eastern MA (LWM, Lawrence, MA; BED,

Bedford, MA). The air in the ENE flow had a source region over the

Gulf of Maine while the air in the NNW flow was of continental origin.

 

        Scientific issues raised by the 2007 St. Patrick's Day storm

include (figure them out and you will be a candidate for "sainthood"

or an all-expense paid trip to STL) the following:

 

1. What were the antecedent conditions that led to the formation of

the zonally contracted and meridionally amplified trough? What rule

did the flanking ridges play in the formation process? How do these

ridges develop and why do they often seem to develop in tandem? Can

the zonally contracted and meridionally amplified trough be viewed as

a trapped feature within a larger scale developing ridge?

 

2. The trough-ridge development scenario did not correspond to

classical downstream development. Is this difference important for

atmospheric predictability and if so why? Is there any evidence that

atmospheric predictability is lowered in these situations?

 

3. What would a global climatology of zonally contracted and

meridionally amplified troughs reveal? Anecdotal evidence suggests

troughs of this type are more common in the SH as compared to the NH.

If true, what does this say about the trough development process and

what role do the flanking ridges play?

 

4. Do longitudinally contracted and meridionally elongated

slow-moving troughs facilitate the extraction of tropical moisture

into higher latitudes and lead to heavy precipitation events on the

forward sides of these troughs? What happens when there is a

bonus-added extra in the form of a southern disturbance with embedded

convection available to interact with meridionally amplifying and

zonally contracting trough?

 

5. Are zonally contracted and meridionally amplified troughs

associated almost exclusively with downstream upper-level jets

instead of meridionally coupled jets, given that the east-west scale

of the trough is too short to support a southern jet where the flow

is appreciably subgeostrophic in the base of the trough?

 

6. Are zonally contracted and meridionally amplified troughs more apt

to be favored in late winter and early spring when the circulation is

spinning down as opposed to the autumn when the circulation is

spinning up? Can these kinds of troughs be viewed as one type of

precursor for cutoff cyclone development?

 

7. Can the model of left-of-track precipitation associated with

landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones when a downstream

upper-level jet is present be applied to zonally contracted and

meridionally amplified troughs? If so, what role does diabatic

heating play in downstream ridge building and jet development,

especially when a tropical moisture surge is present on the forward

side of the trough as occurred with the St. Patrick storm?

 

8. Are these kinds of troughs dominated by jet-entrance dynamics

strongly modified by latent heat release? Is the strong and elongated

downstream jet just a signature of diabatic heating? Are these

structures the cool season equivalent of warm season landfalling and

transitioning TCs? Is the left of track precipitation in the St.

Patrick's Day storm analogous to left of track precipitation in the

right entrance region of an upper-level jet during the landfall and

extratropical transition of Hurricane Floyd (1999)?

 

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>21061 56036=

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>

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>AO2 SLP084 P0005 T10611078=

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>A2967 RMK AO2 UPB41SNE41B48E53 SLP058 P0002 60014 T10611083 58025=

>KDDH 170954Z AUTO 33005KT 5SM UP BR OVC032 M06/M08 A2965 RMK AO2

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>SLP036 60017 70086 T10671083 11056 21067 56022=

>

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>AO2 SLP153 P0010 T10721089=

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>M07/M09 A2986 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP131 P0006 60029 T10721094 58048=

>KPSF 170354Z AUTO 06009G19KT 030V110 3/4SM -SN BR VV005 M07/M09

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>

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>SFC VIS 1/2 SLP187 SNINCR 01/07 P0004 T10671089=

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>KALB 170351Z 01012KT 1/4SM SN FZFG OVC002 M07/M08 A2994 RMK AO2

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>KALB 170451Z 01010KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M06/M08 A2989 RMK AO2

>SLP124 SNINCR 2/11 P0006 T10611078 410281067 $=

>KALB 170551Z 36012G18KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M06/M07 A2984 RMK AO2

>SLP110 SNINCR 1/12 P0006 60031 T10561072 11056 21067 56055 $=

>KALB 170651Z 36011KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M06/M07 A2981 RMK AO2

>SLP100 SNINCR 02/14 P0007 T10561072 $=

>KALB 170751Z 36012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M06/M07 A2978 RMK AO2

>SLP087 SNINCR 01/014 P0003 T10561072 $=

>KALB 170801Z 01012G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC002 M06/M07 A2976 RMK AO2

>SFC VIS 1 P0000 $=

>KALB 170751Z 36012KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M06/M07 A2978=

>KALB 170817Z 36010G18KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR BKN002 BKN017 OVC023 M06/M07

>A2976 RMK AO2 P0001 $=

>KALB 170824Z 36010KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW002 BKN019 OVC023 M06/M07

>A2975 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 P0001 $=

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>TWR VIS 1 1/4 P0001 $=

>KALB 170851Z 36009KT 1SM -SN BR BKN001 OVC019 M06/M07 A2974 RMK AO2

>TWR VIS 1 1/4 SLP074 P0001 60011 T10561072 58036 $=

>KALB 170904Z 35011KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR SCT001 BKN019 OVC034 M06/M07

>A2973 RMK AO2 P0001

>KALB 170851Z 36009KT 1SM -SN BR BKN001 OVC019 M06/M07 A2974=

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>A2973 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 P0002 $=

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>A2972 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 P0002 $=

>KALB 170951Z 35009KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW013 BKN021 OVC027 M06/M07

>A2972 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2 SLP066 P0002 T10561072 $=

>KALB 171051Z 35011KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW012 OVC022 M06/M08 A2970 RMK

>AO2 SFC VIS 5 SLP060 P0001 T10561078 $=

>KALB 171139Z 35012KT 2SM BR FEW016 BKN023 OVC031 M06/M08 A2968 RMK

>AO2 SFC VIS 2 1/2 SNE38 P0000 $=

>KALB 171151Z 35010KT 2SM BR SCT014 BKN023 OVC031 M06/M08 A2968 RMK

>AO2 SFC VIS 2 1/2 SNE38 SLP054 4/015 P0000 60014 70070 T10561078

>11056 21056 56019 $=

>

>........................................................

>

>KLWM 170254Z AUTO 02015G18KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M05/M07 A3005 RMK

>AO2 SLP176 P0004 60011 T10501067 58040 TSNO=

>KLWM 170354Z AUTO 02011KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN002 OVC010 M04/M06 A3002

>RMK AO2 SLP166 P0005 T10441061 TSNO=

>KLWM 170454Z AUTO 05015G20KT 010V080 1/2SM SN FZFG FEW002 BKN006

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>KLWM 170554Z AUTO 06016G23KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC006 00/M01 A2984 RMK AO2

>PK WND 06029/0501 PRESFR SLP105 P0007 60030 T00001011 10000 21056

>58071 TSNO=

>KLWM 170654Z AUTO 05023G33KT 1SM UP BR BKN006 OVC011 00/M01 A2973

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>TSNO=

>KLWM 170754Z AUTO 05020G30KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN009 OVC014 01/M01

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>SLP046 P0011 T00061011 TSNO=

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>55035 TSNO=

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>TSNO=

>KLWM 171154Z AUTO 02007KT 1 3/4SM UP BR OVC007 M02/M04 A2952 RMK AO2

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>T10221039 10006 21039 56039 TSNO=

>KLWM 171254Z AUTO 36008KT 6SM -FZRA BR OVC007 M02/M03 A2949 RMK AO2

>UPE22FZRAB22 SLP989 P0005 T10171033 TSNO=

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>UPB12E19FZRAE01B19SNB01E12 CIG 004V009 SLP982 P0000 60005 T10171028

 

>55006 TSNO=

>

>KBED 170256Z 06013G16KT 3/4SM R11/5500VP6000FT -SN BR BKN008 OVC013

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>T00061006=

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>AO2 CIG 007V013 SLP012 P0014 T10281033 TSNO=

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>AO2 UPB15FZRAE15B28E43 SLP002 P0007 60088 70159 T10281039 10011

>21028 56022=

>KBED 171256Z 34006KT 9SM -FZRA OVC008 M02/M03 A2947 RMK AO2

>UPE05FZRAB05 CIG 007V011 SLP996 P0003 T10221033=

>KBED 171356Z 32009G15KT 1SM R11/4500VP6000FT -FZRA BR OVC006 M03/M03

>A2946 RMK AO2 UPB26E27B51E55FZRAE05B27E41B55SNB41E51 SLP990 P0000

>T10281033=

>KBED 171456Z 34008KT 7SM -FZRA OVC006 M03/M04 A2945 RMK

>UPB33E40FZRAE24B40SNB24E33 SLP990 P0001 60004 T10281039 58005=

 

>

>KBOS 170254Z 06027G37KT 2SM PL BR BKN006 OVC015 01/M01 A2999 RMK AO2

>PK WND 06040/0219 SFC VIS 2 1/2 PRESFR SLP155 P0003 60009 T00061006

>58047 $=

>KBOS 170354Z 06025G33KT 1 1/2SM PL BR BKN008 OVC013 01/00 A2994 RMK

>AO2 PK WND 06035/0335 SFC VIS 2 PRESFR SLP139 P0005 T00060000 $=

>KBOS 170454Z 06028G34KT 2SM PLRA BR BKN006 OVC012 01/01 A2986 RMK

>AO2 PK WND 06038/0411 SFC VIS 2 1/2 RAB50 PRESFR SLP111 P0006

>T00110006 400331033 $=

>KBOS 170554Z 06026G32KT 3SM PLRA BR BKN008 OVC012 01/01 A2980 RMK

>AO2 PK WND 05034/0544 SFC VIS 3 PRESFR SLP089 P0012 60032 T00110011

>10011 21011 58066 $=

>KBOS 170654Z 06024G33KT 3SM +PLRA BR SCT009 OVC016 02/01 A2970 RMK

>AO2 PK WND 06036/0643 PRESFR SLP056 P0016 T00170011 $=

>KBOS 170754Z 05027G38KT 3SM PLRA BR BKN008 BKN014 OVC021 02/02 A2960

>RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/0716 VIS 2 E CIG 006V011 SLP022 P0017 T00220017

>$=

>KBOS 170854Z 02023G27KT 3SM RA BR BKN010 OVC019 02/02 A2956 RMK AO2

>PK WND 05037/0755 PLE06 PRESFR SLP010 P0025 60058 T00170017 56046 $=

>KBOS 170954Z 02019G27KT 3SM RA BR BKN016 BKN021 OVC027 02/02 A2951

>RMK AO2 PK WND 03031/0937 SFC VIS 4 SLP991 P0023 T00220022 $=

>KBOS 171054Z 27011G28KT 120V010 3SM RA BR BKN007 OVC026 02/02 A2951

>RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1048 WSHFT 0954 SFC VIS 4 SLP993 P0029

>T00220022 $=

>KBOS 171154Z 35011KT 3SM RA BR OVC007 01/01 A2947 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1054

>SFC VIS 4 SLP980 P0012 60122 70175 T00110006 10022 20006 58011 $=

>KBOS 171254Z 33012KT 10SM -RA OVC007 01/01 A2945 RMK AO2 SLP973

>P0008 T00060006 $=

>KBOS 171354Z 32011KT 1SM R04R/6000VP6000FT -DZ BR OVC007 00/00 A2944

>RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 3/4 RAE07UPB07E26DZB26 SLP968 P0001 T00000000 $=

>KBOS 171454Z 31013G17KT 1SM R04R/4500VP6000FT -DZ BR OVC007 M01/M01

>A2944 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 RAB06E08 CIG 005V009 SLP970 P0003 60012

>T10061006 55003 $=

>

>KPVC 170255Z 07023G30KT 2 1/2SM BKN006 OVC012 01/00 A2995 RMK AO1

>P0013 60032 57054=

>KPVC 170315Z 08026G35KT 2 1/2SM BKN006 OVC012 02/02 A2995 RMK AO1 P0006=

>KPVC 170335Z 08023G31KT 2SM BKN008 OVC014 02/01 A2995 RMK AO1 P0017=

>KPVC 170355Z 07020G27KT 2 1/2SM FEW002 BKN008 OVC013 02/02 A2993 RMK

>AO1 P0027=

>KPVC 170415Z 07024G31KT 2 1/2SM SCT008 OVC014 02/01 A2988 RMK AO1 P0008=

>KPVC 170435Z 06017G25KT 3SM SCT006 OVC012 02/01 A2986 RMK AO1 P0011=

>KPVC 170455Z 07020G28KT 4SM BKN006 OVC012 02/02 A2984 RMK AO1 P0012=

>KPVC 170515Z 07020G27KT 2 1/2SM FEW002 BKN006 OVC012 02/02 A2980 RMK

>AO1 P0007=

>KPVC 170535Z 07021G27KT 3SM BKN004 OVC009 03/03 A2977 RMK AO1 P0014=

>KPVC 170555Z 08019G30KT 3SM BKN004 OVC010 03/03 A2973 RMK AO1 P0016

>60087 10030 20010 57075=

>KPVC 170615Z 08021G27KT 4SM OVC003 03/03 A2970 RMK AO1 P0001=

>KPVC 170635Z 08012G15KT 2 1/2SM OVC002 04/04 A2967 RMK AO1 P0004=

>KPVC 170655Z 11008G15KT 3SM OVC002 05/05 A2964 RMK AO1 P0009=

>KPVC 170715Z 14013G19KT 4SM OVC002 07/07 A2961 RMK AO1=

>KPVC 170735Z 15015G22KT 6SM BKN003 OVC009 08/08 A2958 RMK AO1 P0001=

>KPVC 170755Z 15017G25KT 4SM FEW003 SCT009 OVC022 08/08 A2957 RMK AO1 P0001=

>KPVC 170815Z 15015G22KT 5SM FEW003 BKN014 OVC021 09/09 A2956 RMK AO1 P0001=

>KPVC 170835Z 15014G21KT 3SM FEW003 BKN012 OVC020 09/09 A2955 RMK AO1 P0008=

>KPVC 170855Z 16017G28KT 3SM SCT004 OVC010 09/08 A2954 RMK AO1 P0012

>60022 57064=

>KPVC 170915Z 15014G26KT 3SM BKN003 OVC010 09/09 A2953 RMK AO1 P0006=

>KPVC 170935Z 15017G26KT 3SM OVC002 09/08 A2951 RMK AO1 P0010=

>KPVC 170955Z 15016G25KT 4SM OVC003 09/09 A2951 RMK AO1 P0012=

>KPVC 171015Z 15017G24KT 3SM OVC003 09/09 A2950 RMK AO1 P0002=

>KPVC 171035Z 15016G25KT 3SM BKN003 OVC009 09/09 A2948 RMK AO1 P0005=

>KPVC 171055Z 15017G24KT 3SM OVC003 09/08 A2948 RMK AO1 P0007=

>KPVC 171115Z 15018G27KT 2 1/2SM OVC002 09/08 A2946 RMK AO1 P0006=

>KPVC 171135Z 15018G26KT 1 3/4SM OVC002 09/09 A2946 RMK AO1 P0011=

>KPVC 171155Z 16017G27KT 1 1/2SM OVC002 10/10 A2946 RMK AO1 P0020

>60061 70157 10100 20030 57027=

>KPVC 171215Z 16016G27KT 2SM OVC002 10/10 A2945 RMK AO1 P0006=

>KPVC 171235Z 16020G27KT 1 3/4SM OVC002 11/11 A2945 RMK AO1 P0008=

>KPVC 171255Z 16021G32KT 2 1/2SM BKN003 OVC010 11/11 A2944 RMK AO1 P0010=

>KPVC 171315Z 16016G28KT 3SM BKN003 OVC010 10/10 A2943 RMK AO1 P0002=

KPVC 171335Z 17016G28KT 5SM FEW003 SCT007 BKN015 11/10 A2943 RMK AO1 P0003=

KPVC 171355Z 16013G21KT 3SM FEW008 SCT013 BKN021 10/10 A2942 RMK AO1 P0004=

KPVC 171415Z 16012G20KT 1 1/2SM SCT002 BKN006 OVC014 10/10 A2941 RMK AO1 P0005=

KPVC 171435Z 17015G19KT 2 1/2SM BKN002 OVC008 09/09 A2941 RMK AO1 P0008=

KPVC 171455Z 17016G25KT 2SM OVC002 09/09 A2939 RMK AO1 P0010 60024 57024=