Forecast teams have been posted!!
Team 1 (ATM 409) Team 2 Team 3 Team 4
Stefan Buchele Jonathan Blufer Tomer Burg Massey Bartolini
Rachael Coons Dylan Card Alexander Henny Eric Bunker
Brandon Currier Shengzhe Chen Macy Howarth Yuan Ming Cheng
Brian Feder Pamela Eck Zach Murphy Meghan Conway
William Flamholtz Lauriana Gaudet Kyle Pallozzi Colleen McHugh
Wesley James Wanhee Kim Vanessa Przybylo Connor Nelson
Zubear Said Adolfo Lugo Rios

Important Links
Overview of QPF Forecasting Activity
---Black US Map to use for Composite Maps and QPF/Snowfall Forecasts
---An example of a QPF composite map and forecast

Five classes on the real-time forecaster hot seat….

Students will work together in small groups (teams) to craft national quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) maps using their class knowledge prior to the start of class. During class, the individual student teams will refine their forecasts and then present their QPF maps with forecast discussion. Subsequent teams will follow up by presenting similarities and differences in their forecast rainfall reasoning. A critical component of this discussion will be to employ sound, dynamics-based meteorological reasoning (and not simply regurgitate model QPF output) in order to highlight the relevant physical processes that are expected to govern the occurrence, location, distribution, amount, intensity, and type of the expected precipitation.

Lance's Tips:

Maintaining a “dry” sense of humor of humor will be essential for “whetting” your forecast appetite so that you can focus on the following “raining” paradigms (aka tips) for forecast success.


  1. A word to the wise about low-level northwesterly flow in New England: Although the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, the rain in Maine is plainly on the wane in these flow situations.

  2. Persistent northerly and easterly flow to the east of major north-south mountain barriers such as the Rockies and Appalachians can lead to extended periods of inclement weather relative to model forecasts.

  3. When the autumn winds blow persistently off the Rockies and well eastward across the Plains, remember that out of the gray gloom of a cold early November late afternoon ride the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. You know them well: Death, famine, pestilence, and….subsidence.

  4. Beware of spurious convective vorticity feedbacks that can lead to excessive precipitation bulls-eyes in some model forecasts or you will surely have a “sinking” feeling later. Failure to let the model wallow in its misery in these situations is a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic: The model will sill suck and the ship will still “sink.”

  5. Lance’s travel schedule matters greatly as to whether Albany will experience a major snowstorm or significant severe weather. Forecasters beware.