Summary Dates
30 Aug
  1 Sep
  6 Sep
  8 Sep
  9 Sep
  15 Sep
  20 Sep
  22 Sep
  27 Sep
  29 Sep
  4 Oct
  6 Oct
  11 Oct
  13 Oct
  18 Oct
  20 Oct
  21 Oct
  25 Oct
  27 Oct
  1 Nov
  3 Nov
  8 Nov
  10 Nov
  15 Nov
  17 Nov
  18 Nov
  22 Nov
  29 Nov
 

30 August

 You can find a copy of the syllabus HERE

Some links for the first classes:
  1. Clausius-Clapeyron Equation: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo300/node/584
    A brief review of the equations and the two figures. We will also get aquatinted with the Skew T-log p diagram to illustrate useful aspects of the C-C equation.

  2. Atmospheric Thermodynamics: http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/Atmospheric_Thermodynamics.pdf
    by Peter Bechtold, ECMWF, May 2015

  3. Precipitable Water: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitable_water
    NOAA (SoS) Science on a Sphere: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/

  4. Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
    Integrated Water Vapor (IWV), Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT), and time-integrated IVT: http://woodland.ucsd.edu/?page_id=491

  5. Rasmussen (1967): http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm509/papers/Rasmussen_1967.pdf
    Integrated Water Vapor Transport Definition: (IVT):

  6. Atmospheric Rivers: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/

  7. Atmospheric River Portal: http://mead.ucsd.edu/

Other Links for Today's Class
-Alicia Bentley’s Real-time GFS maps
-Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Data (WPC – David Roth)
-NHC Rainfall pdf (TCs before 1956):
-The Great Long Island-New England Hurricane of 1938
-Track of Hurricane Hazel (1954)
-Hurricane Hazel event overview (NWS)
-Hurricane Hazel (1954) 60th anniversary
-Hurricane Hazel (1954) and extreme rainfall in southern Ontario
-[PPT] A Comparison of Three Memorable Tropical Cyclones: Sandy (2012), Hazel (1954), and the “38 Hurricane”
-[PDF] Bosart and Carr - 1978 - Monthly Weather Review


1 September
Presentation Used for the Class
  1. Viewing/Using Rainfall Datasets and More!

Useful links:

Forecasting Overview:
-Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF Page:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
---Excessive Precipitation Outlooks:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fam2.shtml#excessrain
---WPC Verification Page:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml


Real-Time Forecast Data Hubs
--Weatherbell: http://models.weatherbell.com/
--Tropical Tidbits: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
--College of Dupage: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast
--Pivotal Weather: http://pivotalweather.com/
--Tomer's Maps: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/
--Alica's Maps: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html
--NCAR Convection Permitting Ensemble: http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/index.php


Real-Time Observational Data
--SPC Mesoanalysis: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
--SPC Sounding Page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
----Sounding Climatology: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/
--Radar Data from College of Dupage: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
--Satellite Data from NASA: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


Archive Rainfall Image Sources
--Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System (MRMS): http://nmq.ou.edu/
-----User guide to use MRMS: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/MRMS/ProductGuide/index.php
--NCAR Radar Image Archive: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/
--Russ Schumacher's 50-yr Extreme Precip Event Archive:http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monitor/50y24h/event_images/year_list.php
--David Roth's TC Precipitaton Archive: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcrainfall.html
--GIOVANNI Visualizations: http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/


Downloadable Precipitation Datasets

Stage IV Precipitation Data (4km Resolution) 2002-Current:
--http://data.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/codiac/fgr_form/id=21.093
--GRIB format
--Only for the United States

PERSIDAN-CDR (0.25 degree resolution) 1983-2016:
--http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/atmospheric/precipitation-persiann-cdr
--NetCDF format
--Global Data (60N-60S)

TRMM-TMPA Data (0.25 degree resolution) 2000-2014:
--http://disc2.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/TRMM_RT/TRMM_3B42RT.7/
--NetCDF format
--Global Data (60N-60S)

IMERG Data (0.1 degree resolution) 2014-Current:
--http://gpm1.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/GPM_L3/GPM_3IMERGHH.03/
--HDF format
--Global Data


Other Downloadable Datasets
--Iowa State Archive Data Page:http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/
--NCEP Data Product Repository:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/
--NOMADS: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/
--GridSat Satellite Imagery:http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog/cdr/gridsat/files/
--Archive NWS Watches/Warnings: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/gis/watchwarn.phtml
--Our local data, find via DAES Wiki:https://wiki.albany.edu/display/daes/Data
---- To log in, use the same username/password combination as your linux username/password.


6 September
Links for class:
  1. Timelapse video of a microburst in Columbus, Ohio:
  2. New York Times: Flooding of Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Already Begun
    Infographic: A Sharp Increased in "Sunny Day" Flooding
  3. Tampa Bay, FL Sounding - 1800 UTC 1 Sep 2016
  4. Tallahassee, FL Sounding - 0000 UTC 2 Sep 2016


8 September
Links for class:
  1. Doswell et al. (1996): Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology
    ---More papers by Chuck Doswell
  2. Chuck Doswell's Home Page
  3. Chuck Doswell’s “Chuck Chatter”: Where Chuck sounds off on relevant topics in the field of meteorology
  4. Murphy (1993): What is a Good Forecast: An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
    --Quote: “First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the value of decisions made by users of the forecasts”

  5. Bosart and Carr (1978): A Case Study of Excessive Rainfall Centered Around Wellsville, New York, 20-21 June 1972
  6. Other links for todays class
  7. Old photos to illustrate how weather maps were formerly received




9 September (Makeup Class)
Links for class:
  1. Critical Success Index (CSI) or Threat Score (TS), and Equitable Threat Score (ETS)
  2. WPC Verification
  3. Hurricane Hermine Overview from NWS
    --Rainfall Totals
    --72h Totals Zoomed Out - 9-03-2016 from MRMS NMQ


13 September (No Class: Lance out of Town)

15 September (Ben Moore Lecture)

 Links for class:
Extreme Precipitation Events in the Central and Eastern US: Presentation by Ben Moore

Paper's Cited
--Corfidi et al. (1996): Predicting the Movement of Mesoscale Convective Complexes
--Doswell et al. (1996): Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology
--Maddox et al. (1979): Synoptic and Meso-Alpha Scale Aspects of Flash Flood Events
--Moore et al. (2012): Physical Processes Associated with Heavy Flooding Rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and Vicinity during 1-2 May 2010: The Role of an Atmospheric River and Mesoscale Convective Systems
--Peters and Schumacher (2014): Objective Categorization of Heavy-Rain-Producing MCS Synoptic Types by Rotated Principal Component Analysis
--Peters and Schumacher (2015): Mechanisms for Organization and Echo Training in a Flash-Flood-Producing Mesoscale Convective System
--Schumacher et al. (2011): Distant Effects of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone on Rainfall in a Midlatitude Convective System: A High-Impact Predecessor Rain Event
--Schumacher and Johnson (2005): Organization and Environmental Properties of Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems



20 September
Links for class:
  1. Fred Sander's QG Theory Notes (password protected)
  2. Boyle and Bosart (1983): A Cyclone/Anticyclone Couplet over North America: An Example of Anticyclone Evolution
    ----Figure 5: Illustration of static stability changes associated with transition of cold to warm anticyclone
  3. Effects of Divergence and Ageostropic Motion on Hydrostatic Stability: Lance Notes



22 September
Links for class:
  1. Refer to notes discussed in the previous class period on 20 Sep


    2. 27 September
    Links for class:
    1. Refer to Sanders notes (pp. 3-7): http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm509/protected/Sanders_QG_Theory_MIT_Notes_July2014.pdf
    2. For HW#1, Lance referred to equations in Bluestein (1992) on pp. 178-179 and 379-385. You can find them here(password protected):


    29 September
    Links for class:
    1. Dynamic Tropopause pressure/wind d(prog)/dt (from Kyle Griffin's Page)
    2. 500-hPa height/vorticity/winds d(prog)/dt (from Kyle Griffin's Page)
    3. 700-hPa heights/temps/winds/PW d(prog)/dt (from Kyle Griffin's Page)
    4. Alicia Bentley's Synoptic Maps
    5. Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) IVT Plots
    6. Tom Galarneau's Real-Time Forecast QG Diagnostics Page


    04 October
    Links for class:
    1. Homework #1 Review: Answer Key (password protected)
      Question #3 Figures: Figures For Q3 from HW#1 (password protected)
    2. Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) IVT Plots
    3. Ben Moore's IVT Loop initalized with the GFS at 0600 UTC 4 Oct 2016
    4. Examples of Deforestation of Haiti in comparison to the Dominican Republic
    5. NASA Documents Haiti Deforestation


    06 October
    Links for class:
    1. Today's Lecture Presentation: Central American Gyres / Long Island Flooding


    11 October: No Class (Yom Kippur)

    13 October Midterm Exam

    18 October
    Links for class:
    Different Methods of Computing Vertical Motion
    1. Adiabatic: References - Bluestein Vol I (section 5.32) and Holton 4th edition (sections 3.5.2)
      Lance's Class Notes on Adiabatic Vertical Motion Method (Password Protected)
      Example in Bosart (1983)

    2. Kinematic: References - Blustein Vol I (section 5.3.1, pp. 313-316)
      Lance's Class Notes on Kinematic Vertical Motion Method (Password Protected)
      Example O'Handley and Bosart (1989)


    3. Rainfall Case Study: Hurricane Matthew
      Alicia's Synoptic Maps
      ----Severe Weather Fields
      ----Tropical Transition Fields
      ----Standardized Anomalies

      ----Long radar loop of Matthew 6-9 October 2016
      ----Short radar loop of intense reflectivity band forming along coastal front 8 October 2016
      ----Differences in Ensemble Distribution of Matthew Track (Curtsey of Brian Tang)
      ----TC Track Bias 12-48 hours (Curtsey of Brian Tang)
      ----TC Track Bias 72-120 hours (Curtsey of Brian Tang)
      ----Mean Absolute Error for Position by Forecast Lead

    4. Rainfall Case Study: Songda (2016) and the Pacific Northwest Windstorm
      Alicia's Synoptic Maps
      ----Severe Weather Fields
      ----Tropical Transition Fields
      ----Standardized Anomalies



      20 October
      Links for class:
      A Continuation of the lecture material that was started on 10/18

      Different Methods of Computing Vertical Motion
      1. Adiabatic: References - Bluestein Vol I (section 5.32) and Holton 4th edition (sections 3.5.2)
        Lance's Class Notes on Adiabatic Vertical Motion Method (Password Protected)
        Example in Bosart (1983)

      2. Kinematic: References - Blustein Vol I (section 5.3.1, pp. 313-316)
        Lance's Class Notes on Kinematic Vertical Motion Method (Password Protected)
        Example O'Handley and Bosart (1989)


        3. 21 October: Makeup Class
        Links for class:
        Refer to lecture material on 20 October

        25 October

         Links for class:
        1. Lance's Class Notes on Thermodynamic Methods of Estimating Vertical Motion and Precipitation Rate (password protected)

        2. Carr and Millard (1985): A Composite Study of Comma Clouds and their Association with Severe Weather over the Great Plains

        3. John Gyakum's illustration of different precipitation rates as a function of vertical motion and airmass type:
          --Readme
          ----Precipitation Diagram During Montreal Ice Storm (1998)
          ----Precipitation Diagram During Slovenia Ice Storm (2014)
          ----Precipitation Diagram During Calgary Flood (2013)


        27 October

         Links for class:
        1. Continuation of Material that was covered on Tuesday 25 Oct
        2. Realtime Streamlines via Earth nullschool


        1 November

         Links for class:
        1. Tom Galarneau's users guide to QG dynamics
          ----Tom Galarneau's QG dynamics page

        2. Lance Class Notes on Orographic Influences (protected link)

        3. Lance Class Notes on Cancelation Problem in QG Omega Equation (protected link)


          4. 3 November

           Links for class:
          1. Atmospheric Rivers over Eastern Canada: Their Seasonality, Impacts on Air Mass Dynamics, and Links to Extreme Precipitation (protected link)
            --John Gyakum, Alice Wood, Eyad Atallah


            2. 8 November

             No Class (Lance Out of Town)



              10 November

               Guest Lecture: Andrew Winters
              Links for class:
              1. Precipitation Processes Associated with Jet-Induced Vertical Circulations: Andrew Winters



                2. 15 November
                Review of Homework#2
                Solution Key for Homework #2 (Password Protected)
                ---Illustrations of using Skew-T's and maps for Homework#2 (Password Protected)
                ---Massey's Temperature Advection Map For Question#2a

                Links for class:
                1. Lance's Class Notes: Water Vapor Budget
                  ---Palmen and Newton Figures for Water Vapor Budget Notes

                2. Alicia Bentley's Realtime Page




                  3. 17 November
                  Exam #2 Given


                  18 November
                  Makeup Class

                  Links for class:
                  1. Lance's Class Notes: Water Vapor Budget
                    ---Palmen and Newton Figures for Water Vapor Budget Notes

                  2. Fred Sanders QG Notes (Password Protected)

                  3. Ben Moore's Realtime Integrated Vapor Transport Maps

                  4. Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) IVT Plots

                  5. Case Studies:
                    --Snowzilla January 2016
                    --Super Typhooon Nuri November 2014

                  6. World Rainfall Records

                  7. Topography of Southeast Asia/Taiwan
                    Zoomed in Topography of Taiwan
                    Orographic Precipitation: Taiwan (Typhoons Sepat and Wipha)


                  22 November
                  Makeup Class

                  Links for class:
                  1. QPF Forecasting Exercise:
                    Overview of QPF Forecasting Activity
                    ---Blank US Map with Topography (can print out out use when drawing on PowerPoint)
                    ---Example of Composite Map and Forecast for QPF and Snowfall
                    2. Teams:
                    Team 1 (ATM 409 Students)
                    1. Stefan Buchele
                    2. Rachael Coons
                    3. Brandon Currier
                    4. Brian Feder
                    5. William Flamholtz
                    6. Wesley James
                    7. Zubear Said

                    Team 2
                    1. Jonathan Blufer
                    2. Dylan Card
                    3. Shengzhe Chen
                    4. Pamela Eck
                    5. Lauriana Gaudet
                    6. Wanhee Kim

                    Team 3
                    1. Tomer Burg
                    2. Alexander Henny
                    3. Macy Howarth
                    4. Zach Murphy
                    5. Kyle Pallozzi
                    6. Vanessa Przybylo

                    Team 4
                    1. Massey Bartolini
                    2. Eric Bunker
                    3. Yuan Ming Cheng
                    4. Meghan Conway
                    5. Colleen McHugh
                    6. Connor Nelson
                    7. Adolfo Lugo Rios


                    29 November

                    Louis Uccellini's Visit


                    Presentations:
                    1. Multi-scale Interactions during the Winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011: A Link to the February 1979 Presidents' Day Storm: Bosart, Archambault, and Cordeira

                    2. Reflecting on the Presidents Day Storm 18-19 February 1979: Louis Uccellini
                      ----Updated Presentation (Password Protected)

                    3. Southern Stream Storm 11-17 February 2003: Presidents Day Weekend Snow Storm: Grumm

                    4. NH mean and anomaly maps before and after the Presidents’ Day II storm of 17–18 Feb 2003: NOAA/ESRL

                    5. Email from Andrea Lang: 29 Nov 2016
                      Supplemental Data
                      ---Northern Annular Mode index for February 1979
                      ---50-hPa Minimum Temperature (50-90N): 1979 MERRA2
                      ---50-hPa Zonal Mean Zonal Wind (60N): 1979 MERRA2
                      ---10-hPa Mean Zonal Wind (60N): 1979 MERRA2
                      ---10-hPa Wave 2 Height Amplitude (60N): 1979 MERRA2
                      ---50-hPa Wave 2 Height Amplitude (60N): 1979 MERRA2
                      ---50-hPa Geopotential Height: 18 Feb - 22 Feb 1979 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
                      ---50-hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly: 18 Feb - 22 Feb 1979 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

                    Maps:
                    1. Presidents' Day Storm I February 1979
                      Severe Weather Maps: Alicia Bentley
                      Tropical Transition Maps: Alicia Bentley
                      Standardized Anomaly Maps: Alicia Bentley

                    2. Presidents' Day Storm II February 2003
                      Severe Weather Maps: Alicia Bentley
                      Tropical Transition Maps: Alicia Bentley
                      Standardized Anomaly Maps: Alicia Bentley

                    Papers: The President's Day Storm I
                    1. Title: A Diagnostic Analysis of the Presidents' Day Storm Of February 1979
                      Author: L. F. Bosart and S. C. Lin
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1984
                    2. Title: Inclusion of a TKE Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Canadian Regional Finite-Element Model
                      Author: R. Benoit and J. Mailhot
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1989
                    3. Title: Sensitivity of Model Simulations for a Coastal Cyclone
                      Author: I. Orlanski and J.J. Katzfey
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1987
                    4. Title: Synergistic Interactions between an Upper-Level Jet Streak and Diabatic Processes that Influence the Development of a Low-Level Jet and a Secondary Coastal Cyclone
                      Author: L. W. Uccellini, R. A. Petersen, P. J. Kocic, K. F. Brill, and J. J. Tuccillo
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1987
                    5. Title: The Presidents' Day Snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: A Subsynoptic-Scale Event
                      Author: L. F. Bosart
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1981
                    6. Title: Application of the 4-D McIDAS to a Model Diagnostic Study of the Presidents' Day Cyclone
                      Author: H. Hibbard, L. W. Uccellini, D. Santek, and K. F. Brill
                      Journal & Year: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society - 1989
                    7. Title: Stratospheric–Tropospheric Mass Exchange during the Presidents' Day Storm
                      Author:P. Spaete. D. R. Johnson, and T. K. Schaack
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1994
                    8. Title: Height Tendency Diagnostics Using a Generalized Omega Equation, the Vorticity Equation, and a Nonlinear Balance Equation
                      Author: J. Räisänen
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1997
                    9. Title: A Model-Based Diagnostic Study of the Rapid Development Phase of the Presidents's Day Cyclone
                      Author: J. S. Whittaker, L. W. Uccellini, and K. F. Brill
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1988
                    10. Title: A Technique for Diagnosing Three-Dimensional Ageostrophic Circulations in Baroclinic Disturbances on Limited-Area Domains
                      Author: A. F. Loughe, C.-C. Lai, D. Keyser
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1995
                    11. Title: The Presidents' Day Cyclone of 18–19 February 1979: Influence of Upstream Trough Amplification and Associated Tropopause Folding on Rapid Cyclogenesis
                      Author: L. W. Uccellini, D. Keyser, C. H. Walsh, and K. F. Brill
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1985
                    12. Title: The Presidents' Day Cyclone of 18–19 February 1979: Synoptic Overview and Analysis of the Subtropical Jet Streak Influencing the Pre-Cyclogenetic Period
                      Author: L. W. Uccellini, P. J. Kocin, R. A. Petersen, C. F. Walsh, and K. F. Brill
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1984

                    Papers: The Queen Elizabeth II Storm
                    1. Title: The Impact of Seasat-A Scatterometer Data on High-Resolution Analyses and Forecasts: The Development of the QE II Storm
                      Author: A. C. M. Stoffelen and G. J. Cats
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1991
                    2. Title: Meteorological Precursors to the Explosive Intensification of the QE II Storm
                      Author: J. R. Gyakum
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1991
                    3. Title: On the Evolution of the QE II Storm. I: Synoptic Aspects
                      Author: J. R. Gyakum
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1983
                    4. Title: The Possible Influence of Upstream Upper-Level Baroclinic Processes on the Development of the QE II Storm
                      Author: L. W. Uccellini
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1986
                    5. Title: On the Evolution of the QE II Storm. II: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure
                      Author: J. R. Gyakum
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1983
                    6. Title: Analysis of the Impact of Seasat Scatterometer Data and Horizontal Resolution on GLA Model Simulations of the QE II Storm
                      Author: A. J. Lenzen, D. R. Johnson, and R. Atlas
                      Journal & Year: Monthly Weather Review - 1993