Click here for a manuscript that describes the updated improved version of the
projection algorithm.
This site is under construction, and several links and discriptions of the products
following the links are outdated. Please e-mail roundy at atmos dot albany dot edu with
questions.
The old OLR projection system will be phased out by October 28
and replaced by the new version to save memory. The manuscript describing
the algorithm is now in press at QJRMS.
OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS UNDER REVIEW
NEW OR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS
Animation of recent and
forecast OLR and 850 hPa zonal
wind anomalies associated
with the different modes. (UPDATED VERSION)
Forecast OLR and 850 hPa Wind Anomalies averaged
for Weeks 1 and 2
850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on MJO, ER,
and 100-day lowpass OLR)
List of Analogs
Hovmoeller Diagrams of
Unfiltered and Projected OLR
Anomalies (UPDATED VERSION)
Regression 300 hPa Height Based
on MJO and ER States Assuming most recent GWO State
(not updated daily)
Composite 300 hPa Height Based
on Analog Dates of Similar MJO and ER Wave Zonal Phase
Regression 300 hPa Height Based
on ER and Kelvin wave states given similar MJO state.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)
850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on the MJO and 100 day lowpass OLR)
List of Analogs
850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 5% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)
List of Analogs
MJO Zonal Phase Diagrams
Including Model and Statistical Forecasts
850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 7% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)
List of Analogs
Experimental Geopotential Height
and OLR Forecast
Experimental 850 hPa Temperature
and OLR Forecast
Composite global flow associated with
simultaneous action of the MJO
and convectively coupled atmospheric
Kelvin waves
Real-time ENSO Phase Space in Atmospheric Convection
October-April Composite 300 hPa Geopotential Heights and OLR anomalies for each ENSO phase
Carl Schreck's tropical weather page
Composite Global flow
based on simultaneous MJO and Kelvin wave
signals
Seasonal Cycle Loops
OLR Cycle and Surf. Winds
OLR cycle and 200 hPa winds
Vertical seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 0N
Seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 10N
Seasonal cycle zonal wind, 0N
Total daily OLR and 1000 hPa winds, Example Loop
Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Seasonal Cycle of Total OLR Variance
Cycle of MJO OLR Variance
Cycle of 2-10 day westward OLR Variance
Cycle of Kelvin band OLR Variance
Cycle of ER band OLR Variance