Click here for a paper that describes the updated improved version of the
projection algorithm.

This site is under construction, and several links and discriptions of the products
following the links are outdated. Please e-mail proundy at albany dot edu with
questions.


OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS UNDER REVIEW NEW OR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS

Animation of recent and
forecast OLR and 850 hPa zonal
wind anomalies associated
with the different modes. (UPDATED VERSION)

Forecast OLR and 850 hPa Wind Anomalies averaged
for Weeks 1 and 2

100-day Lowpass Constructed
Analog

Lowpass, MJO and ER Constructed
Analog

Constructed Analog based on 300 hPa Geopoential Height Anomalies
from 30N to 90N

Lowpass, MJO and ER Constructed
Analog 850 T

Contingency Analysis
for Above

Hovmoeller Diagrams of
Unfiltered and Projected OLR
Anomalies (UPDATED VERSION)


Hovmoeller Diagrams of
Unfiltered and Slow Eastward-Projected OLR
Anomalies. Includes fine structure of MJO along
with slow Kelvin waves


The extended EOF databases used for these networks are most effective during the winter, when fewer eigenmodes are required, or, for the global eigenmodes, in the winter hemisphere.

Bugs Fixed 23 September 2013
Neural Network Forecast for 7-day mean 300 hPa Geopotential Height (original, based on 30-87.5N)


Same as above, but based on global eigenmodes.


Global eigenmodes 7-100 day periods only.


Neural Network Forecast for 5-day mean 850 hPa Temperature


Skill of the Network for Each PC Retained (Updated nightly)
Skill of the Network hfor Each PC Retained (Updated nightly with the GLOBAL PCs)
(Skill is benchmarked against climatology: The zero anomaly for each PC, and it is assessed for 31 forecasts in each of the last 3 years beginning each day from 15 days before to 15 days after the present day of year).

Composite 300 hPa Height Based
on Analog Dates of Similar MJO and ER Wave Zonal Phase


Regression 300 hPa Height Based
on ER and Kelvin wave states given similar MJO state.
(inclusion of the Kelvin waves signals makes this product less
stable but more information is retained, allowing it to diagnose some
shorter timescale regime shifts)


Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on the MJO and 100 day lowpass OLR)

List of Analogs

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 5% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)

List of Analogs

MJO Zonal Phase Diagrams
Including Model and Statistical Forecasts

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 7% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)

List of Analogs

Experimental Geopotential Height
and OLR Forecast

Experimental 850 hPa Temperature
and OLR Forecast

Composite 850 Temperature
during the eight standard RMM
phases and comparable low frequency
convective states


Composite 500 hPa height
during the eight standard RMM
phases and comparable low frequency
convective states

Composite global flow associated with
simultaneous action of the MJO
and convectively coupled atmospheric
Kelvin waves

Kyle MacRitchie's CFS Projections Page

Experimental RMM Signals with EOFs 3-4 Dynamically Rotated onto EOF 2:

Effective Modified RMM2 Structure


RMM Phase Diagram with Rotated RMM2


Composite Animation Based on Present Phase Angle


UPDATED, results are based on the first two lowpass EEOFs of tropical
OLR anomalies, following my QJRMS article linked at the top of the page.

Real-time ENSO Phase Space in Atmospheric Convection
Index table (columns 4-5 are the PCs)


Composite 300 hPa Geopotential Heights and OLR anomalies for each ENSO phase, based on days of year within 90 days centered 2 weeks from present.

Composite 300 hPa Geopotential Heights and OLR anomalies for each ENSO phase 60 DAYS LATER, based on days of year within 90 days centered 2 weeks from present.

Carl Schreck's tropical weather page

Composite Global flow
based on simultaneous MJO and Kelvin wave
signals

Seasonal Cycle Loops

OLR Cycle and Surf. Winds

OLR cycle and 200 hPa winds

Vertical seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 0N

Seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 10N

Seasonal cycle zonal wind, 0N

Total daily OLR and 1000 hPa winds, Example Loop

Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Seasonal Cycle of Total OLR Variance

Cycle of MJO OLR Variance

Cycle of 2-10 day westward OLR Variance

Cycle of Kelvin band OLR Variance

Cycle of ER band OLR Variance