Click here for a manuscript that describes the updated improved version of the
projection algorithm.

This site is under construction, and several links and discriptions of the products
following the links are outdated. Please e-mail roundy at atmos dot albany dot edu with
questions.

The old OLR projection system will be phased out by October 28
and replaced by the new version to save memory. The manuscript describing
the algorithm is now in press at QJRMS.
OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS UNDER REVIEW NEW OR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS

Animation of recent and
forecast OLR and 850 hPa zonal
wind anomalies associated
with the different modes. (UPDATED VERSION)

Forecast OLR and 850 hPa Wind Anomalies averaged
for Weeks 1 and 2

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on MJO, ER,
and 100-day lowpass OLR)

List of Analogs


Hovmoeller Diagrams of
Unfiltered and Projected OLR
Anomalies (UPDATED VERSION)


Regression 300 hPa Height Based
on MJO and ER States Assuming most recent GWO State
(not updated daily)


Composite 300 hPa Height Based
on Analog Dates of Similar MJO and ER Wave Zonal Phase


Regression 300 hPa Height Based
on ER and Kelvin wave states given similar MJO state.


Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on the MJO and 100 day lowpass OLR)

List of Analogs

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 5% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)

List of Analogs

MJO Zonal Phase Diagrams
Including Model and Statistical Forecasts

850 hPa Temperature
Contingency Map
(based on top 7% of 100-day lowpass OLR only)

List of Analogs

Experimental Geopotential Height
and OLR Forecast

Experimental 850 hPa Temperature
and OLR Forecast

Composite global flow associated with
simultaneous action of the MJO
and convectively coupled atmospheric
Kelvin waves

Real-time ENSO Phase Space in Atmospheric Convection

October-April Composite 300 hPa Geopotential Heights and OLR anomalies for each ENSO phase

Carl Schreck's tropical weather page

Composite Global flow
based on simultaneous MJO and Kelvin wave
signals

Seasonal Cycle Loops

OLR Cycle and Surf. Winds

OLR cycle and 200 hPa winds

Vertical seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 0N

Seasonal cycle, Relative Humidity, 10N

Seasonal cycle zonal wind, 0N

Total daily OLR and 1000 hPa winds, Example Loop

Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Seasonal Cycle of Total OLR Variance

Cycle of MJO OLR Variance

Cycle of 2-10 day westward OLR Variance

Cycle of Kelvin band OLR Variance

Cycle of ER band OLR Variance