AMS 401-501: Synoptic Laboratory II

Map Discussion:

Week 2 Cities:

Barcelona, Spain: LEBL
Reykjavik, Iceland: BIRK
Week 3 Cities:

Vladivostok, Russia: UHWW
Sapporo, Japan: RJCC
Week 4 Cities:

Beirut, Lebanon: OLBA
Baghdad, Iraq: ORBI
Week 5 Cities:

Albany, Australia: YABA
Adelaide, Australia: YPAD
Week 6 Cities:

Punta Arenas, Chile: SCCI
Resistencia, Argentina: SARE
Week 7 Cities:

Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Airport, Kamchatka, Russia: UHPP
St. Paul Island, AK: PASN
Week 8 Cities:

Innsbruck, Austria: LOWI
Casablanca, Morocco: GMMN
Week 9 Cities:

Bandar Abbas International Airport, Iran: OIKB
Karachi, Pakistan: OPKC
Map Discussion Teams:

Undergrad Team: Brennan / Chelsea
Grad Team: Alex / Tyler
Forecast Discussions:

International Forecast Discussion:

a) Work together as two teams (undergrads and grads) before class to produce the forecast products described below.

b) Undergrad team leads on Tuesday; grad team leads on Thursday.

c) Each team should create an AFD before the start of class at 4:15 pm and send it to Marshall Pfahler for posting.

d) Decide how to partition your AFD discussion: One possibility: 1) student A presents the big picture, and 2) student B discusses days 7-10, 4-6, and 1-3. Feel free to choose other possibilities.

e) Make probabilistic temperature and rainfall forecasts for the two initial 3-day periods and the one final 4-day period. Determine: (1) the expected 10th, 50th (over-under number), and 90th percentiles for maximum and minimum temperature during each of the three periods, and (2) the expected 10th, 50th (over-under number) and 90th precipitation amount percentiles during each of the three periods (it’s possible that your precipitation amount percentiles will all be zero if you are expecting dry weather during each of the three periods).

f) To be determined how practical item e) will be. Try it. If to doesn’t work, we’ll modify the plan.

g) Work with Marshall Pfahler to post your probabilistic forecasts to the class home page.

Climatological Information:
- Reykjavik (Link)
- Barcelona (Link)

Learning Experience:
Accept that you will stumble and bumble your way through the probabilistic forecasting process initially. Things will be chaotic on day 1 and likely still chaotic on day 2. You will no doubt want to kill me. It will take you several classes to get things right. Be innovative. Take chances. Think outside the box.

From Prof. Bosart:

The quintessential essence of being for a good map discussion should attempt to answer these six questions:

1. What has happened?
2. Why has it happened?
3. What is happening now?
4. Why is it happening?
5. What is going to happen?
6. Why is it going to happen?

In my experience far too many students focus on question five and never consider the other five questions. This situation arises for several reasons, the most likely of which is that the numerical and statistical guidance has become good enough often enough that forecasters having grown fat and happy from feeding at the St. GFS/NAM Lodge (aka the Bates Motel?) and have forgotten how to forage in the forest. Permit me to adopt a slightly contrarian perspective. Forecasters of the future who concentrate exclusively on question five while ignoring the other five questions will increasingly have difficulty passing the *value added test* (VAT, aka sniff test) that is going to determine which jobs will get automated out of existence or outsourced and which jobs will stand the test of time. To paraphrase that old Brylcreem commercial, a little VAT will do*ya....

As always, when you address the above points start with the big picture (large scale) first. Next consider the synoptic scale and how it relates to the larger (planetary) scale. Then discuss the mesoscale and note how it links to the synoptic scale. The observations always have value. Use them early and often, and appropriately, within the context of the above six questions. And, above all, employ sound dynamical reasoning for the whys and hows when you address questions 2, 4 and 6.
Enough said for now....

Useful Links for Global Weather:

Alicia Bentley: Real-Time GFS Analyses & Forecasts (Link)

Heather Archambault: Archived GFS Analyses (Link)

Tomer Burg: Real-Time GFS Forecasts (Link)

Tom Galarneau: Weather & Climate Links (Link)

Tom Galarneau: Real-Time QG Diagnostics (Link)

Sat-24: Global Satellite Imagery (Link)

Kristen Corbosiero: Weather Links (Link)

Weather Online: Global Observational Maps (Link)

ManUniCast: UK Weather & Air Quality Forecasting Teaching Portal (Link)

Intellicast: Global Satellite Imagery (Link)

India Meteorological Department (IMD): Real-Time Observations (Link)

Weather Online: Asia (Link)