ATM 419/563 - Applications of Numerical Weather Prediction, Fall 2024

This page is: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rfovell/NWP/
The numerical methods course (ATM 562) web page is: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rfovell/ATM562/

Course information

Course syllabus (version of 24 September 2024; check for updates)

Mac users: You need XQuartz to view outputs from NCL and ncview. The latest version has an issue. This older version works correctly: https://www.xquartz.org/releases/XQuartz-2.8.3.html

Running the WRF modeling system on a Mac and Jupyter

• WRF on Mac and Jupyter page (page started 12/9/23)
  

Course materials for Fall 2024

Introduction

• Course overview (PPTX) [WARNING: 260+ MB file] (version of 8/23/24)
  
• Introduction to Unix, WRF-Python, and the Albany cluster (PPT) (updated 8/28/24)
  

Some Jupyter notebooks used in this course (some will require considerable revisions for other environments)

• Jupyter notebooks archive (TAR file)
  

WRF/WPS workflow demonstration via Jupyter notebook

• Workflow demo script (PDF) (updated 8/29/24)
  

Idealized WRF: Supercell storm (in-class demo)

• Supercell in-class demo (PPTX) (updated 9/9/24)
  
• Supercell script (PDF) (posted 8/23/24)
  

Real-data SNOWSTORM test case: Setup and run and Geogrid assignment

• WRF real test case: Setup and run (PPTX) (revised 9/9/24)
  
• WRF real test case script (PDF) (revised 9/9/24)
  
• Geogrid and map projection assignment (PDF) (posted 9/6/24; due by Wednesday, Sep. 18.)
  
• Example assignment template (PPTX) (posted 9/6/24)
  

The Real-data WRF Checklist (for generic model runs on batch/burst/burst-daes)

• The real-data WRF checklist (PDF) (posted 9/10/24)
  

Hurricane Harvey: Experiment #1 (Due Wednesday September 25th)

• Script for Hurricane Harvey case (PDF) (posted 9/16/24)
  
• Output from CONTROL run (PPTX) (revised 9/18/24)
  

Planetary boundary layer and surface layer parameterizations

• PBL slides - Part 1 (PPTX) (revised 9/25/24)
  
• PBL slides - Part 2 (PPTX) (revised 9/25/24)
  
• PBL slides - Part 3 (PPTX) (posted 9/17/24)
  
• PBL demonstration and ensemble contribution (PPTX) (posted 9/25/24)
  
• PBL demonstration script (PDF) (posted 9/25/24)
  
• PBL ensemble assignments (PDF) (posted 9/25/24; due Monday Oct 7th)
  
• PBL ensemble results (PPTX) (posted 10/16/24)
  

Final project proposal

• Final project proposal (PDF) (due Wednesday, Oct. 2)
  

Boulder windstorm case, plotting GRIB data, and Experiment #2 (Part 1 due 10/21, Part 2 due 10/23)

• Plotting data from GRIB files (PPTX) (revised 10/6/24)
  
• Windstorm overview and experiment (PPT) (revised 10/6/24)
  
• Windstorm script (PDF) (posted 10/2/24)
  

Hurricane Milton class ensemble

• Milton overview (PPTX) (posted 10/9/24)
  
• Milton script (PDF) (posted 10/9/24)
  
• Milton ensemble outputs (PPTX) (posted 10/16/24)
  

Cloud microphysics (including in-class ensemble)

• Cloud microphysics (PPTX) (posted 10/9/24)
  
• Squall line demo script and ensemble assignments (PDF) (posted 10/21/24)
  
• Squall line background and demo slides (PPTX) (posted 10/23/24)
  

Cumulus parameterization

• Cumulus schemes (PPTX) (posted 10/21/24)
  

Final project progress report

• Final project progress report (PDF) (posted 10/28/24, due Wednesday, 11/6/24)
  
• Final project insights (PPTX) (posted 10/28/24)
  

The MPAS model

• MPAS model and demonstration (PPTX) (updated 11/11/24)
  
• MPAS demonstration script (PDF) (posted 10/28/24)
  

Modeling fundamentals, sources of errors, and troubleshooting

• Modeling fundamentals, errors, and troubleshooting (PPTX) (posted 10/28/24)
  

TSTORM demonstration (cumulus ensemble): WRF version

• TSTORM control run (PPTX) (Posted 11/6/24)
  
• TSTORM demo script (PDF) (Posted 11/6/24)
  

"Storm of the Century" case, Part 1: nudging, SKEBS, and Experiment #3 (due 11/18/24)

• SOC test case and Experiment #3 (PPTX) (posted 11/10/24) [due date 11/18/24]
  
• SOC Experiment #3 script (PDF) (posted 11/10/24)
  
• SKEBS ensemble results (PPTX) (posted 11/23/24)
  

"Storm of the Century" case, Part #2: model levels, diffusers/dampers, and Experiment #4 physics contest (due 12/9/24)

• SOC, NESIS, NARR, and Experiment #4 (PPTX) (posted 11/16/24) [due date 12/9/24, 11:40 AM EST]
  
• SOC NARR in-class script (PDF) (posted 11/16/24)
  

Boulder windstorm case (Part 3) and assignment (due 12/2)

• Windstorm verification (PPTX) (posted 11/19/24)
  
• Windstorm verification script (PDF) (posted 11/19/24)
  
• Windstorm assignment (PDF) (posted 11/19/24, due date 12/2/24)
  

GraphCast machine learning weather prediction model

• GraphCast demo (PPTX) (posted 11/23/24)
  
• GraphCast script streamlined version (PDF) (posted 11/23/24)
  
• GraphCast script full version (PDF)
  

Linear and nonlinear instability demonstration

• Instability and diffusion demo (PPTX) (posted 11/23/24)
  
• Instability and diffusion script (PDF) (posted 11/23/24)
  

Hurricane forecast game materials

• Basemaps for game (PDF) (posted 12/4/24)
  
• Scoresheet (DOCX) (posted 12/4/24)
  

Miscellaneous and final project information

• Potpourri (PPTX) (Modified 12/9/24)
  
• Example final presentation (PPTX) (Posted 4/26/22)
  

UFS Short Range Weather (SRW) Application

• UFS SRW demo (PPTX) (updated 4/22/24)
  
• UFS SRW script (PDF) (posted 4/18/24)
  

Course resources and useful links

University at Albany VPN installation [for offcampus access]
Passwordless logon to headnode (or other computers)
GrADS home page
WRF-Python documentation
WRF Users page
WRFV4.5 user's guide
WRF namelist reference
WPS namelist reference
MPAS home page
How to use the vi editor
FileZilla file transfer app (Mac, Windows, Linux; free)
Transmit file transfer app (Mac only, not free but very good)
Vapor home page (requires creating free account)
NCAR data archive (RDA)
NCEP/NCDC NOMADS NWP model archive
MADIS data archive

My home page

Papers cited during this course

• Marshall and Palmer (1948) (PDF)
• Lettau (1950) (PDF)
• McDonald (1954) (PDF)
• Blackadar (1962) (PDF)
• Kuo (1965)
  
• Deardorff (1966) (PDF)
• Bonner (1968) (PDF)
• Wieringa (1968) (PDF)
• Kuo (1968) (PDF)
  
• Foote and du Toit (1969) (PDF)
  
• Foote and du Toit [corrigendum] (1969) (PDF)
  
• Businger et al. (1971) (PDF)
• Cotton (1972) (PDF)
• Yanai et al. (1973)
  
• Arakawa and Schubert (1974)
  
• Locatelli and Hobbs (1974)
  
• Yamada and Mellor (1975) (PDF)
• Browning et al. (1976)
  
• Brost and Wyngaard (1978) (PDF)
• Leary and Houze (1979)
  
• Lemon and Doswell (1979)
  
• Tripoli and Cotton (1980)
  
• Wilhelmson and Klemp (1981)
  
• Weisman and Klemp (1982)
  
• Betts (1982)
  
• Betts (1983)
  
• Rotunno (1983) (PDF)
  
• Lin et al. (1983)
• Willis (1984) (PDF)
• Rutledge and Hobbs (1984) (PDF)
• Bluestein et al. (1985) (PDF)
• Betts and Miller (1986)
  
• Troen and Mahrt (1986) (PDF)
• Beard and Chuang (1987) (PDF)
• Fovell and Tan (1998) (PDF)
• Lott (1993)
  
• Betts and Miller (1993)
  
• Janjic (1994)
  
• Frech and Mahrt (1995) (PDF)
• Hong and Pan (1996) (PDF)
• Straka and Rasmussen (1997) (PDF)
• Mapes (1997)
  
• Xue (2000)
  
• Grell and Devenyi (2002)
  
• Bright and Mullen (2002) (PDF)
• Baldwin et al. (2002)
  
• Noh et al. (2003) (PDF)
• Roebber et al. (2003)
  
• Wakimoto et al. (2004)
  
• Vickers and Mahrt (2004) (PDF)
• Soares et al. (2004) (PDF)
• Kocin and Uccellini (2004)
  
• Kain (2004)
  
• Schultz (2005)
• Baxter et al. (2005)
  
• Sukoriansky et al. (2005)
  
• Squires and Lawrimore (2006)
  
• Fovell et al. (2006)
  
• Hong et al. (2006) (PDF)
• Galperin et al. (2007) (PDF)
• Siebesma et al. (2007) (PDF)
• Pleim (2007) (PDF)
• Fovell and Su (2007)
  
• Byun et al. (2008)
  
• Hong (2010) (PDF)
• Berner et al. (2010)
  
• Zhang et al. (2011)
  
• Jimenez et al. (2012)
  
• Grell and Freitas (2014)
  
• Shin and Hong (2015) (PDF)
• Shin and Dudhia (2016) (PDF)
• Fovell et al. (2016) (PDF)
• Cao and Fovell (2016) (PDF)
• Jahn et al. (2017a) (PDF)
• Jahn et al. (2017b) (PDF)
• Wilson and Fovell (2018) (PDF)
• Cao and Fovell (2018) (PDF)
• Fovell and Gallagher (2018) (PDF)
• Olson et al. (2019) (PDF)
• Fovell and Gallagher (2020) (PDF)
• Olson et al. (2021) (PDF)
• Harris et al. (2021) (PDF)
• Lam et al. (2023) (PDF)
• Conrick et al. (2024) (PDF)
• Fovell and Brewer (2024) (PDF)